Prior distributions for stratified capture-recapture models

We consider the Arnason-Schwarz model, usually used to estimate survival and movement probabilities from capture-recapture data. A missing data structure of this model is constructed which allows a clear separation of information relative to capture and relative to movement. Extensions of the Arnason-Schwarz model are considered. For example, we consider a model that takes into account both the individual migration history and the individual reproduction history. Biological assumptions of these extensions are summarized via a directed graph. Owing to missing data, the posterior distribution of parameters is numerically intractable. To overcome those computational difficulties we advocate a Gibbs sampling algorithm that takes advantage of the missing data structure inherent in capture-recapture models. Prior information on survival, capture and movement probabilities typically consists of a prior mean and of a prior 95% credible confidence interval. Dirichlet distributions are used to incorporate some prior information on capture, survival probabilities, and movement probabilities. Finally, the influence of the prior on the Bayesian estimates of movement probabilities is examined.     

Random effects and shrinkage estimation in capture-recapture models

We discuss the analysis of random effects in capture-recapture models, and outline Bayesian and frequentists approaches to their analysis. Under a normal model, random effects estimators derived from Bayesian or frequentist considerations have a common form as shrinkage estimators. We discuss some of the difficulties of analysing random effects using traditional methods, and argue that a Bayesian formulation provides a rigorous framework for dealing with these difficulties. In capture-recapture models, random effects may provide a parsimonious compromise between constant and completely time-dependent models for the parameters (e.g. survival probability). We consider application of random effects to band-recovery models, although the principles apply to more general situations, such as Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. We illustrate these ideas using a commonly analysed band recovery data set.     

简论文学作品在高校思想政治理论课教学中的运用

文学作品运用于高校思想政治理论课教学中,可以采用直接引用原文、间接叙述、直接引用和间接叙述相结合的方式,以及引导学生回忆记忆中的文学作品等方式。为了达到良好的教学效果,文学作品可以与朗诵、音乐、影视以及图片等形式相结合展现出来。在选择文学作品作为思想政治理论课教学素材时,应尽量选择学生较为熟悉的和易懂的文学作品,文学作品的内容应与教学内容相当,不宜过多,以免喧宾夺主。     

Choice and circumstance: Qualitative insights into contemporary childlessness in Australia

Using data from in-depth interviews with 115 women, men and couples in eastern Australia for whom family formation was a recent, current or imminent future issue, this article explores contemporary childlessness among those physically able to have children. It differentiates between those childless by choice and by circumstance, and among other themes highlights (i) the role preservation of lifestyle appears to play as a motive for deliberate childlessness following development of a life course through early adulthood that both generates lifestyle aspirations and often places parenthood on the backburner until after age 30, and (ii) the roles difficulty forming suitable relationships, women’s desire for meaningful careers, and male involvement in family formation decisions play in bringing about childlessness by circumstance.     

篇章、语篇、信息——系统功能语言学视角

"篇章"和"语篇"指的是同一种事物,只是看问题的角度不同。语篇分析就是把篇章跟语言的系统联系起来。作者认为,语篇有各种变体,语码变体跟语域、语类无关。文学语言的特殊性源于语法隐喻。从事语篇分析的学者都是从自己特定的角度出发的,如,批评话语分析、积极话语分析。很多意义是不能量化的,我们不仅要重视概念意义,也要重视人际意义。作者还论证了计算机对语篇分析、机器翻译的作用。     

紧缩时代的新极端主义和干扰政治

美国主流媒体有关财政悬崖危机等孤立议题的辩论,是一种转移公众注意力的干扰性话语政治学,它旨在强化去政治化和威权主义的新模式,割裂人们对个体困境与公共利益考虑之间的联系。在民主共和两党尤其是共和党极端主义对福利国家、公共利益和责任政府的大肆攻击之下,美国已经变成精神上的威权国家,市场极端主义和极端个人主义甚嚣尘上,想象力、能动性和希望被窒息。在此情况下,批判教育学成为正义、社会责任和民主意义的核心,帮助人们争取集体夺回民主斗争的胜利。     

Sexual trafficking in women: international political economy and the politics of sex

A recent manifestation of the North/South, East/West political-economic divide is the international sex trade in women, of which trafficking in women for purposes of sexual employment is a large subset. Trafficking in humans in general, and women in particular, has taken center stage in many nation-states as an issue of a threat to national security and societal cohesion. This article explores some of the basic facts about trafficking and spotlights it as a truly global phenomenon, with its contemporary origins in the international capitalist market system. Furthermore, it argues that the international political economy of sex not only includes the supply side--the women of the third world, the poor states, or exotic Asian women--but it cannot maintain itself without the demand from the organizers of the trade--the men from industrialized and developing countries. The patriarchal world system hungers for and sustains the international subculture of docile women from underdeveloped nations.     

Structural and Behavioural Changes in the Short TermPreventive Check in the Northwest Balkans in the 18th and19th Centuries

Fertility responded negatively to grain insufficiency(proxied by grain price increases), and mortality respondedpositively in Croatia-Slavonia-Srem in the 18thand 19th centuries, as in most of Europe. Shiftsin the intensity and timing of these responsesoccurred over time as social and economic structureschanged. Shifts in the elasticity of fertility withrespect to grain supply inversely mimic and lagchanges in the elasticity of mortality. Both appear tobe induced by increasing land shortage, the collapseof feudalism, and differences in the patterns ofadjustment to post-feudal conditions among former civiland military serfs. Generally, responses are strongerfor civil and former civil serfs, who may have been inless favourable economic circumstances than themilitary. Fertility responses in the year of a priceshock come to dominate those in the year following,suggesting a shift from contraception to abortion aseconomic and social conditions apparently worsened andstrategies of control intensified. Analysis of monthlyresponses supports the conjecture based on the annualresponses. The shift to the preventive check and strength of thepreventive check in the same year as the price shockis unusual in Europe and beyond. Analysis is based on25 parishes and employs lagged annual and monthly timeseries analysis with corrections for autocorrelation,in combination with ethnographic and historical data.     

全球气候变化问题与我国能源战略

全球气候变化及相应的温室气体排放问题 ,越来越成为国际社会关注的焦点。文章分析了发达国家在气候变化问题上的历史责任 ,评价了自改革开放以来 ,我国能源政策对控制温室气体排放量增长的客观效果 ,对未来我国的能源消费和相应的CO2 排放的趋势进行了预测 ,分析了我国未来在温室气体排放问题上可能面临的压力 ,以及未来可能采取限控措施的代价和对宏观经济的影响 ,并对我国能源战略有关政策提出了进一步的建议。