A model for the coordination of recovery policies in the OECD region

The paper presents a world econometric model of the LINK type, which is then applied to the study of the recovery prospects of the OECD economies. Specifically, several policy packages coordinated at the international level are assessed for the period 1978–1980.The model includes country specific macroeconomic structures for eight developed economies, and different type structures for five additional developing countries. The obvious policy and behavioral differences that exist between these two groups of countries are highlighted through the specification, in one case, of demand-oriented Keynessian models able to capture short-term cyclical phenomena. The supply orientation with several resource gaps (savings, foreign exchange, etc.) prevails for the developing economies. The two sections after the introduction review broadly the main modeling features of the project, including the international comparison of structural parameters. In the following sections several policy experiments are attempted. The underlying behavioral assumptions stress the community of interest that prevails among OECD economies. These experiments consider the case of stimulative policies adopted in (1) the United States alone, (2) three engine countries (United States, Federal Republic of Germany, and Japan), and (3) several developed countries that are part of the OECD system. Other experiments assume additional policy packages to correct present current account imbalances. The general conclusion of the study is that the prospects for economic recovery in the OECD area depend to a crucial extent on the ability of the member countries to agree on policies able to make the major economic indicators of each economy converge toward levels that are domestically manageable and mutually supporting.     

Markov chain Monte Carlo tests for designed experiments

We consider conditional exact tests of factor effects in designed experiments for discrete response variables. Similarly to the analysis of contingency tables, a Markov chain Monte Carlo method can be used for performing exact tests, when large-sample approximations are poor and the enumeration of the conditional sample space is infeasible. For designed experiments with a single observation for each run, we formulate log-linear or logistic models and consider a connected Markov chain over an appropriate sample space. In particular, we investigate fractional factorial designs with 2^p-q$2^{p-q}$ runs, noting correspondences to the models for 2^p-q$2^{p-q}$ contingency tables.     

Minimal Markov Basis for Tests of Main Effect Models for 2p-1 Fractional Factorial Designs of Resolution p

We consider conditional exact tests of factor effects in design of experiments for discrete response variables. Similarly to the analysis of contingency tables, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods can be used to perform exact tests, especially when large-sample approximations of the null distributions are poor and the enumeration of the conditional sample space is infeasible. In order to construct a connected Markov chain over the appropriate sample space, one approach is to compute a Markov basis. Theoretically, a Markov basis can be characterized as a generator of a well-specified toric ideal in a polynomial ring and is computed by computational algebraic software. However, the computation of a Markov basis sometimes becomes infeasible, even for problems of moderate sizes. In the present article, we obtain the closed-form expression of minimal Markov bases for the main effect models of 2^{p ? 1} fractional factorial designs of resolution p.     

Checking the linear transformation model for clustered failure time observations

The linear transformation model is a semiparametric model which contains the Cox proportional hazards model and the proportional odds model as special cases. Cai et al. (Biometrika 87:867-878, 2000) have proposed an inference procedure for the linear transformation model with correlated censored observations. In this article, we develop formal and graphical model checking techniques for the linear transformation models based on cumulative sums of martingale-type residuals. The proposed method is illustrated with a clinical trial data.     

Happiness and Satisfaction with Work Commute

Research suggests that for many people happiness is being able to make the routines of everyday life work, such that positive feelings dominate over negative feelings resulting from daily hassles. In line with this, a survey of work commuters in the three largest urban areas of Sweden show that satisfaction with the work commute contributes to overall happiness. It is also found that feelings during the commutes are predominantly positive or neutral. Possible explanatory factors include desirable physical exercise from walking and biking, as well as that short commutes provide a buffer between the work and private spheres. For longer work commutes, social and entertainment activities either increase positive affects or counteract stress and boredom. Satisfaction with being employed in a recession may also spill over to positive experiences of work commutes.     

A theory of the value of children

This paper uses a non-standard value assumption—uncertainty reduction—to explain parenthood. We begin by reviewing the inadequacies of normative and standard rational choice explanations of shifts in fertility behavior. Then we propose a theory of the value of children based on the uncertainty-reduction assumption. Next we generate a range of hypotheses that follow both from this assumption and from a subsidiary assumption of marital solidarity enhancement. Finally, we explore the extent to which implications based on these new ideas are supported by the relevant empirical literature.     

“Prince Charming Syndrome?” Gender gap in preferences for defined contribution pensions in Japan

Using survey data collected by the Japan Institute of Life Insurance in 2002, this study finds that a significant gender gap existed in defined contribution (DC) pension knowledge among workers employed at small- to medium-sized private firms in Japan. Even with similar DC knowledge, however, men and women reveal different preferences for DC pensions, indicating that their perceptional responses may widely differ from actual behaviors. Apart from the knowledge gap, the result shows evidence of the Prince Charming Syndrome among female employees as a significant source of the gender gap in DC participation rates. Among corporate pension-covered employees, the gender difference in the efficacy of DC portability is a more significant gap-generating factor. DC tax advantage is particularly favored by pension-covered female employees over male counterparts, reducing the DC preference gap. No similar evidence is found for employees with no corporate pension coverage.     

CAN EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGY EXPLAIN REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE CONTEMPORARY UNITED STATES?

Can evolutionary psychology explain human behavior in postindustrial societies? Critics point out that, contrary to its prediction, wealthy men in contemporary societies do not have more children than poor men. I replicate Pérusse's (1993) finding with a large, representative sample and demonstrate that, while they do not have more children, wealthy men nonetheless have more sex partners and copulate more frequently than poor men. They would therefore have achieved greater reproductive success in the ancestral environment without effective means of contraception.     

Social Capital and the Human Psyche: Why Is Social Life "Capital"?

In this article, we propose a revised definition of social capital, premised on the principles of evolutionary psychology. We define social capital as any feature of a social relationship that, directly or indirectly, confers reproductive benefits to a participant in that relationship. This definition grounds the construct of social capital in human nature by providing a basis for inferring the underlying motivations that humans may have in common, rather than leaving the matter of what humans use capital for unspoken. Discussions and empirical reviews are presented on the innateness of human sociability, sex differences in sociability, and psychological mechanisms that mediate sociability .