The dynamics of smallpox epidemics in Britain, 1550–1800

Time-series analysis, a valuable tool in studying population dynamics, has been used to determine the periodicity of smallpox epidemics during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries in two contrasting representative situations: 1) London, a large city where smallpox was endemic, and 2) Penrith, a small rural town. The interepidemic period was found to be two years in London and five years in Penrith. Equations governing the dynamics of epidemics predict 1) a two-year periodicity and 2) that oscillatory epidemics die out quickly. It is suggested that epidemics were maintained by a periodic variation in susceptibility linked either to a five-year cycle of malnutrition or to an annual cycle. Computer modeling shows how the very different patterns of epidemics are related to population size and to the magnitude of the oscillation in susceptibility.     

changes in the propensity to live alone: 1950–1976

The growth in single-person households is a pervasive behavioral phenomenon in the United States in the post-war period. In this paper we investigate determinants of the propensity to live alone, using 1970 data across states for single men and women ages 25 to 34 and for elderly widows. Income level appears to be a major determinant of the propensity to live alone. The estimated cross-state equations track about three-quarters of the increase in the propensity to live alone between 1950-1976and suggest that income growth has been the principal identified influence. Other variables found to affect (positively) the propensity to live alone include mobility, schooling level, and for young people a measure of social climate; non-whites appear to have a somewhat lower propensity to live alone.     

“Wearing a Mask Won't Protect Us from Our History”: The Impact of COVID-19 on Black Children and Families

The data on COVID-19 show an irrefutable and disturbing pattern: Black Americans are contracting and dying from COVID-19 at rates that far exceed other racial and ethnic groups. Due to historical and current iterations of racism, Black Americans have been forced into conditions that elevate their risk for COVID-19 and consequently place Black children at the epicenter of loss across multiple domains of life. The current paper highlights the impact of the pandemic on Black children at the individual, family, and school levels. Based on an understanding of the influence of structural racism on COVID-19 disparities, policy recommendations are provided that focus on equitable access to quality education, home ownership, and employment to fully address the needs of Black children and families during and after the pandemic. Research, practice, and policy recommendations are made to journal editors, funding agencies, grant review panels, and researchers regarding how research on COVID-19 should be framed to inform intervention efforts aimed at improving the situation of Black children and families.     

Social capital and community building through an electronic network

This paper describes a social policy experiment that explores current and potential links between trends in Australian public policy. The central example is provided by the implementation of a wired community set up in a low‐income public housing estate by an entrepreneurial not‐for‐profit internet service provider, InfoXchange. ‘Reach for the Clouds’, the wired community being established at Atherton Gardens in Fitzroy, Melbourne, is attractive to policy‐makers and funding bodies, combining community‐building, public‐private partnerships, self‐help and place‐based management. However, although the project is promoted as an exercise in community‐building through technology, many of the key assumptions are untested. It seems self‐evident that low‐income people who are socially and economically excluded would benefit from greater ‘connectedness’ with one another. However, it is not clear that such exchanges, online or off‐line, will build ‘community’. The paper attempts to establish some distinctions between online communities of interest and place based communities, untangling the relationship between social connectedness and models of social capital.     

Reconsidering the Impact of Jurisprudential Regimes*

Objectives. Recent work on Supreme Court decision making has argued that different areas of law demonstrate the creation of jurisprudential regimes, which alter the importance of different case facts to the justices, suggesting that the justices do alter their behavior in response to changes in the law. However, the work on jurisprudential regimes has suggested that all justices, or at least all justices who participate in establishing the regime, react similarly to the regime creation. Methods. I separate out the justices who support the establishment of the regime and those who oppose the establishment of the regime to test the hypothesis that majority and dissenting justices react differently to the creation of jurisprudential regimes. Results. Both sets of justices react to the establishment of the regime, but the change in behavior of the dissenters occurs after that of the majority. Conclusions. These results suggest that the impact of jurisprudential regimes may be even more substantial than previously believed.     

Boundary-spanning work demands and their consequences for guilt and psychological distress

Using data from a national survey of working Americans (Work, Stress, and Health Survey; N = 1,042), the authors examine the associations between boundary-spanning work demands and self-reported feelings of guilt and distress. The authors document gender differences in the emotional and mental health consequences of boundary-spanning work demands, as indexed by the frequency of receiving work-related contact outside of normal work hours. Specifically, the authors observe that frequent work contact is associated with more feelings of guilt and distress among women only. Analyses also demonstrate that guilt accounts for the positive association between the frequency of work contact and distress among women. Statistical adjustments for levels of guilt reduce the positive association between frequent work contact and distress among women to nonsignificance. The findings underscore the importance of focusing on gender and emotions in work-family interface processes, as well as their implications for psychological health.     

TOO MANY MEN? SEX RATIOS AND WOMEN'S PARTNERING BEHAVIOR IN CHINA

The relative numbers of women and men are changing dramatically in China, but the consequences of these imbalanced sex ratios have received little attention. We merge data from the Chinese Health and Family Life Survey with community-level data from Chinese censuses to examine the relationship between cohort- and community-specific sex ratios and women's partnering behavior. Consistent with demographic-opportunity theory and sociocultural theory, we find that high sex ratios (indicating more men relative to women) are associated with an increased likelihood that women marry before age 25. However, high sex ratios are also associated with an increased likelihood that women engage in premarital and extramarital sexual relationships and have had more than one sexual partner, findings consistent with demographic-opportunity theory but inconsistent with sociocultural theory.     

Individual versus family psychotherapy in managed care: comparing the costs of treatment by the mental health professions

In an effort to understand how psychotherapy is practiced in the "real world," outpatient claims data were examined to determine the cost of individual and family therapy provided by marital and family therapists, master's nurses, master's social workers, medical doctors, psychologists, or professional counselors. Claims for 490,000 unique persons over 4 years were obtained from CIGNA. Family therapy proved to be substantially more cost-effective than individual or "mixed" psychotherapy. Physicians provided care in the fewest sessions, marital and family therapists had the highest success (86.6%) and lowest recidivism rates (13.4%), and professional counselors were the least costly. Outcomes were overwhelmingly successful, with 85% of patients requiring only one episode of care.