A tractable method to measure utility and loss aversion under prospect theory

This paper provides an efficient method to measure utility under prospect theory. Our method minimizes both the number of elicitations required to measure utility and the cognitive burden for subjects, being based on the elicitation of certainty equivalents for two-outcome prospects. We applied our method in an experiment and were able to replicate the main findings on prospect theory, suggesting that our method measures what it is intended to. Our data confirmed empirically that risk seeking and concave utility can coincide under prospect theory. Utility did not depend on the probability used in the elicitation, which offers support for the validity of prospect theory.

"(麦连)(麦善)嗢陀南"试解

<傅山全书>中"(麦连)(麦善)"二字最早见于隋唐以后<广韵><集韵>诸书,其义皆称为大麦,或大麦新熟所作饼餌.作为准确的名称来说,应为(麦善)(麦连),傅山逆称为(麦连)(麦善)者,或许别有原因."嗢陀南"一词是佛经中的一句术语.丁仲祜氏<佛学大辞典>载:"嗢柁南"之称"嗢柁那",译曰"集施",为传法心印的意思.     

波普尔科学知识观刍论

波普尔科学知识观主要包括 :(1)科学知识的划界。科学知识总是假设的 ,它是猜想的知识 ,假设人们事先能规定一项可证伪理论的判决性实验 ,该理论便是科学的 ;假如拒绝规定潜在证伪者 ,该理论便是伪科学的。(2 )科学知识的生长。新的问题导致创造物或构造物 ,可以把新的客体补充到知识的第三世界中 ,每一个步骤将创造出新的预想不到的事实 ,常常创造出新的反驳。 (3)科学知识的评价和检验。一个理论的好坏不是取决于它已经获得了多少证据的支持 ,而是取决于它的可证伪性程度和它所受到的检验的严峻性程度。确认度与真假无关 ,只是表示人们暂时地接受一个有问题的猜测的合理性程度。     

河南省传统文化资源的深度挖掘

河南省传统文化资源存量丰富,但相关部门各自为政缺乏统一管理,难以实现共享和深度开发及文化产业化。基于文化生态学的视角,河南文化产业决策研究知识平台的构建,首先应建设好文化资源数据库、创意及策划人才智囊库,同时要搭建项目评估合作中心,并建立产业化、品牌化战略研究中心和文化改革发展试验区。     

大庆：一个资源型城市的新作为

大庆是因油而生、依油而兴的资源型城市。大庆石油人在昔日荒原上建起了全国最大的油田,建起了一座新兴工业城市,培育形成了大庆精神、铁人精神。到2009年,大庆走过了油田发现50年、建市30年的辉煌历程,经历了石油大会战,保持了原油高产稳产,今天正在由单一资源型经济向多元综合型经济、由传统矿区向创新型城市转变,在可持续发展的轨道上跨步前行。     

人口老龄化阶段我国农村养老保险的机制创新

人口老龄化是当前全球人口结构发展的基本趋势。面对人口老龄化带来的各种挑战,加快建立和完善我国农特养老保险制度是一项紧迫的任务。廓清我国农村养老保险制度的困境及其成因与变迁,分析其中存在的问题,是推进农村养老保险制度改革的重要内容。从我国农村人口老龄化的趋势和农村经济发展的实际出发,通过机制创新,建立农村养老保险制度创新机制,是完善农村养老保险的关键所在。     

Estimation of the additive hazards model with interval-censored data and missing covariates

The additive hazards model is one of the most commonly used regression models in the analysis of failure time data and many methods have been developed for its inference in various situations. However, no established estimation procedure exists when there are covariates with missing values and the observed responses are interval-censored; both types of complications arise in various settings including demographic, epidemiological, financial, medical and sociological studies. To address this deficiency, we propose several inverse probability weight-based and reweighting-based estimation procedures for the situation where covariate values are missing at random. The resulting estimators of regression model parameters are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The numerical results that we report from a simulation study suggest that the proposed methods work well in practical situations. An application to a childhood cancer survival study is provided. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 499–517; 2020 © 2020 Statistical Society of Canada     

Pension scheme fees and charge ratios in 44 countries: A comparative study

Based on data received from pension supervisory authorities, the article reviews 85 different pension schemes in 44 jurisdictions by looking at fees and charges as well as their legal ceilings and their development since 2014. A key finding is the observed decrease in fees and caps. The article presents jurisdictions according to clusters, i.e. by groups of countries with identical or very similar items already covered by pension fees, and analyses the extent to which various cost and fee elements are covered by fees charged to members. Finally, we calculate charge ratios for each cluster to quantify the impact of fees and charges on pension savings. Occupational defined contribution pension schemes and personal plans linked to employment tend to be much more cost effective than personal schemes that have no direct employment link.     

C2C电子社区成员信誉值的计算模型研究

信任问题是关系C2C社区发展的主要因素之一.通过交易后相互评分,计算C2C社区成员信誉值并为潜在交易提供指导是建立社区信任的一种方法.通过在Sporas模型的基础上增加交易量、交易次数等变量和引入惩罚因子,提出了一种改进的C2C社区成员信誉值计算模型(E-Sporas),并针对信誉诋毁、信誉共谋这2类恶意行为设计仿真实验,检验模型的应用效果,从而为建立在线信誉系统提供一定的借鉴作用.