Seasonal Time Series and Transfer Function Modeling

A simple modification is suggested for the construction of transfer function models relating an output variable Y_t to an input variable X_t when the model for X_t contains operators that cancel out. In addition, the evaluation of transfer function models is discussed by comparing the forecasts with the actual observations.     

Dimensionality reduction approach to multivariate prediction

The authors consider dimensionality reduction methods used for prediction, such as reduced rank regression, principal component regression and partial least squares. They show how it is possible to obtain intermediate solutions by estimating simultaneously the latent variables for the predictors and for the responses. They obtain a continuum of solutions that goes from reduced rank regression to principal component regression via maximum likelihood and least squares estimation. Different solutions are compared using simulated and real data.     

The United States Economic Crisis: Young Adults’ Reports of Economic Pressures, Financial and Religious Coping and Psychological Well-Being

Using a sample of 222 young adults attending college, the present study examined the relative contribution of young adults’ perceived economic pressures, financial coping and religious meaning-making coping strategies in accounting for variation in their reports of psychological well-being within the context of the United States economic crisis. Results suggest a direct relationship between perceived economic pressure and psychological well-being such that young adults who reported having to make more economic adjustments as a result of economic crisis also reported higher levels of depressed mood and anxiety. Young men and women who reported having to make fewer economic adjustments and being able to meet their material needs reported higher levels of life satisfaction. Regardless of young adults’ self-reported level of economic pressures, the use of education and communication financial coping strategies was related to lower levels of self-reported anxiety and depressed mood and greater life satisfaction. Viewing the financial crisis as a punishment from God was generally associated with young adults’ reports of greater depressed mood and less life satisfaction. Implication of findings for research and practice are discussed.     

A time series model with random coefficients

There are many time series applications where an experi­menter observes the simultaneous responses of several sub­systems over time. In these instances one is often not interested in the parameters of individual subsystems, but rather in an overall characterization of the system in question. Under the assumption that subsystems are independent and first order autoregressive, the present paper presents two methods for estimating the distribution of the subsystem coefficients.     

Improved estimators for the selected location parameters

_i , i = 1, 2, ..., k be k independent exponential populations with different unknown location parameters θ _i , i = 1, 2, ..., k and common known scale parameter σ. Let Y _i denote the smallest observation based on a random sample of size n from the i-th population. Suppose a subset of the given k population is selected using the subset selection procedure according to which the population π _i is selected iff Y _i ≥Y ₍₁₎−d, where Y ₍₁₎ is the largest of the Y _i 's and d is some suitable constant. The estimation of the location parameters associated with the selected populations is considered for the squared error loss. It is observed that the natural estimator dominates the unbiased estimator. It is also shown that the natural estimator itself is inadmissible and a class of improved estimators that dominate the natural estimator is obtained. The improved estimators are consistent and their risks are shown to be O(kn ⁻²). As a special case, we obtain the coresponding results for the estimation of θ₍₁₎, the parameter associated with Y ₍₁₎. Received: January 6, 1998; revised version: July 11, 2000     

Family,marital, and occupational satisfaction for recovering pathological gamblers

This paper describes the efforts of a private gambling treatment program to conduct a retrospective study of pathological gamblers treated in a publicly supported residential program. The Johns Hopkins Center for Pathological Gambling treated approximately 100 pathological gamblers nationwide from 1979 to 1983 in its residential component. Twenty-six gamblers were assessed regarding their recovery status with specific focus on family, marital status and occupational satisfaction. It was hypothesized that the more satisfied patients would display lower frequencies of gambling and that gambling frequency was dependent upon the level of satisfaction. Thirty-one percent of these gamblers reported abstinence. Regression analyses indicated that the recovery of pathological gamblers as measured by frequency of gambling is significantly influenced by job satisfaction, and moderately influenced by marital status and family life satisfaction. Consequently, these factors should be addressed by mental health professionals in research and treatment of pathological gambling.     

Renyi's entropy for residual lifetime distribution

In the present paper, we introduce and study Renyi's information measure (entropy) for residual lifetime distributions. It is shown that the proposed measure uniquely determines the distribution. We present characterizations for some lifetime models. Further, we define two new classes of life distributions based on this measure. Various properties of these classes are also given.     

Microdata Access and Labor Market Research: The U. S. Experience

Summary: The paper illustrates the value of broad researcher access to survey and administrative microdata using examples drawn from the U. S. experience, outlining how analyses of trends in earnings inequality, poverty and employment dynamics using such data have benefited policy makers and contributed to improvements in statistical agency data products. Methods of facilitating researcher access, including the release of public use files, the use of licensing agreements, and the establishment of research data centers, are discussed. * The author thanks Anne Polivka, Marilyn Seastrom and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper.     

Who participates,who does not,and why? An analysis of voluntary neighborhood organizations in the United States and Israel

Lack of participation in voluntary associations and the associated issues of why people do or do not participate are major areas of interest in the research literature concerning citizen participation. The present study used three types of variables (demographic, social psychological, and costs/benefits) to investigate the characteristics of participants and nonparticipants in neighborhood-type organizations in the United States and Israel. Findings from analysis of the demographic variables show some cross-cultural similarities (including a surprising lack of race/ethnic and education differences between participants and nonparticipants). There were striking cross-cultural similarities using the social psychological variables. The data from the Israel sample provide important information on the costs and benefits of participation. A discriminant analysis points to the predictive strength of social psychological and cost/benefit variables in comparison to demographic variables. Implications of these results for explanatory and predictive purposes are discussed.