Evaluating the complex interactions between malaria and cholera prevalence,neglected tropical disease comorbidities,and community perception of health risks of climate change

The burgeoning literature on the climate change–human health nexus has focused almost exclusively on the health impacts of climate change with little attention to how ill-health and disease influence public perception of the health risks of climate change. Based on a cross-sectional survey of 1,253 individuals, linear regression was used to examine the independent effects of malaria and cholera prevalence, and neglected tropical disease comorbidities on perceived health risks of climate change. Individuals who reported more comorbidities had higher scores on perceived health risks of climate change compared with those who did not report any comorbidities. Unexpectedly, at the multivariate level, there were no statistically significant relationships between age of respondents, gender, and educational attainment on the one hand, and perceived health risks of climate change on the other hand. Individuals who were diagnosed with cholera in the past 12 months had higher scores on perceived health risks of climate change but there was no relationship between diagnosis with malaria in the past 12 months and perceived health risks. Individuals who had attained secondary education had lower scores on perceived health risks of climate change compared with those without any formal education. Given that this relationship did not exist at the bivariate level, it indicates that biosocial and sociocultural factors suppressed the relationship between secondary education attainment and perceived health risks of climate change. The findings underscore the complex relationship between perceived health risks of climate change and infectious disease, comorbidities, compositional, and contextual factors at the multivariate level.     

Of Disasters and Dragon Kings: A Statistical Analysis of Nuclear Power Incidents and Accidents

We perform a statistical study of risk in nuclear energy systems. This study provides and analyzes a data set that is twice the size of the previous best data set on nuclear incidents and accidents, comparing three measures of severity: the industry standard International Nuclear Event Scale, the Nuclear Accident Magnitude Scale of radiation release, and cost in U.S. dollars. The rate of nuclear accidents with cost above 20 MM 2013 USD, per reactor per year, has decreased from the 1970s until the present time. Along the way, the rate dropped significantly after Chernobyl (April 1986) and is expected to be roughly stable around a level of 0.003, suggesting an average of just over one event per year across the current global fleet. The distribution of costs appears to have changed following the Three Mile Island major accident (March 1979). The median cost became approximately 3.5 times smaller, but an extremely heavy tail emerged, being well described by a Pareto distribution with parameter α = 0.5–0.6. For instance, the cost of the two largest events, Chernobyl and Fukushima (March 2011), is equal to nearly five times the sum of the 173 other events. We also document a significant runaway disaster regime in both radiation release and cost data, which we associate with the “dragon‐king” phenomenon. Since the major accident at Fukushima (March 2011) occurred recently, we are unable to quantify an impact of the industry response to this disaster. Excluding such improvements, in terms of costs, our range of models suggests that there is presently a 50% chance that (i) a Fukushima event (or larger) occurs every 60–150 years, and (ii) that a Three Mile Island event (or larger) occurs every 10–20 years. Further—even assuming that it is no longer possible to suffer an event more costly than Chernobyl or Fukushima—the expected annual cost and its standard error bracket the cost of a new plant. This highlights the importance of improvements not only immediately following Fukushima, but also deeper improvements to effectively exclude the possibility of “dragon‐king” disasters. Finally, we find that the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) is inconsistent in terms of both cost and radiation released. To be consistent with cost data, the Chernobyl and Fukushima disasters would need to have between an INES level of 10 and 11, rather than the maximum of 7.     

Statistical issues in first‐in‐human studies on BIA 10‐2474: Neglected comparison of protocol against practice

By setting the regulatory‐approved protocol for a suite of first‐in‐human studies on BIA 10‐2474 against the subsequent French investigations, we highlight 6 key design and statistical issues, which reinforce recommendations by a Royal Statistical Society Working Party, which were made in the aftermath of cytokine release storm in 6 healthy volunteers in the United Kingdom in 2006. The 6 issues are dose determination, availability of pharmacokinetic results, dosing interval, stopping rules, appraisal by safety committee, and clear algorithm required if combining approvals for single and multiple ascending dose studies.     

A modified Friedman test for randomized complete block designs

The Friedman test is often used for a randomized complete block design when the normality assumption is not satisfied or the data are ordinal. The Friedman test can be viewed as an extension of the sign test for multiple measurements within each subject or block. We propose a modified Friedman test based on the Wilcoxon sign rank approach. Coincidentally, Tukey proposed a test statistic similar to our proposed test, but blocks are ranked by the minimum difference within each block. In the proposed test, we use the variance of block to rank the blocks, with the least variance being ranked the smallest. In both Tukey test and the modified Friedman test, linear ranks are used for blocks and treatments. The Tukey test belongs to the family of weighted-ranking test from Quade (1979 Quade, D. (1979). Using weighted rankings in the analysis of complete blocks with additive block effects. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74(367):680–683. [Google Scholar]).The modified Friedman test, the Friedman test and the Tukey test are compared under various conditions and the results indicate that the proposed test is generally more powerful than the Friedman test and the Tukey test when the number of groups is small.     

The Blurring Hypothesis Reconsidered: How Sector Still Matters to Practitioners

This article asks: Is sector still a useful concept for social science research on nonprofit organizations and related fields, such as social entrepreneurship? We answer that it is relevant to practitioners for whom sector boundaries remain an important orienting feature of their organizational worldviews. This observation is at odds with the recent scholarship on “blurring” sector boundaries, much of which suggests that sector is increasingly an outdated concept. Data from one uniquely blended space—the fair trade industry—coupled with insights from Scott’s (Institutions and organizations: ideas, interests, and identities, 2014) theory about the three pillars of institutions suggest that sector remains meaningful despite developments that appear to render it obsolete.     

TANF’s 15th Anniversary and the Great Recession: are Low‐Income Mothers Celebrating Upward Economic Mobility?

This article examines the impact of welfare reform for the upward economic mobility of low‐income families at the fifteenth anniversary of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. The reformed policy was based on assumptions about participating families’ morality and encouraged states to move families off welfare through work and marriage without considering whether they were still poor. TANF was also implemented during an economic boom. Today, the US economy is suffering from the effects of the Great Recession, with many fearing a double dip recession. Poverty rates rose during the last 3 years and are currently above 15 percent. For the first time since 1996, the welfare rolls are increasing in many states. Welfare reform’s ‘work first’ approach did not create lasting upward economic mobility for low‐income families. As an alternative, I explore how higher education for welfare mothers will create opportunities for lasting upward mobility, even in times of recession.     

The New European Trade Preferences: Does ‘Everything But Arms’ (EBA) Help the Poor?

The EU’s offer of tariff‐ and quota‐free access for all exports from the Least Developed Countries (for Everything but Arms) has been welcomed as part of the WTO‐led initiative to assist these countries. But it is not without problems. As the Least Developed compete more with other developing countries than with the EU, trade is likely to be diverted from other, sometimes poorer, countries. (‘Least Developed’ is an official classification, not a neutral measure of poverty.) EBA contradicts and impedes the EU’s policies of reciprocity and promotion of regions: it not only creates an alternative trade regime, but seems unilaterally to break existing agreements. The article concludes that the policy was adopted for essentially political, not developmental, motives.     

Organizational Culture in Civic Associations in Russia

The organizational culture of nonprofit organizations is affected by the context in which they are embedded. Based on a qualitative study of local civic associations in Novosibirsk, Russia, this article illustrates how nonprofit organizational culture has been shaped by historical and contemporary social and cultural conditions. The fluid situation for civil society in Russia has generated varied organizational culture across nonprofits. Interview data reveal different value orientations, distinct group identities, and different images of the ideal civic association: as a social establishment, as an outlet for self-expression, as a network of experts, or as a social startup. This resulting diversity of organizational culture has implications for the potential for partnerships among nonprofits, between nonprofits and government, between nonprofits and businesses, and also for the organizational survival of nonprofits in this setting.     

Subgroup analysis and interpretation for phase 3 confirmatory trials: White paper of the EFSPI/PSI working group on subgroup analysis

Subgroup by treatment interaction assessments are routinely performed when analysing clinical trials and are particularly important for phase 3 trials where the results may affect regulatory labelling. Interpretation of such interactions is particularly difficult, as on one hand the subgroup finding can be due to chance, but equally such analyses are known to have a low chance of detecting differential treatment effects across subgroup levels, so may overlook important differences in therapeutic efficacy. EMA have therefore issued draft guidance on the use of subgroup analyses in this setting. Although this guidance provided clear proposals on the importance of pre‐specification of likely subgroup effects and how to use this when interpreting trial results, it is less clear which analysis methods would be reasonable, and how to interpret apparent subgroup effects in terms of whether further evaluation or action is necessary. A PSI/EFSPI Working Group has therefore been investigating a focused set of analysis approaches to assess treatment effect heterogeneity across subgroups in confirmatory clinical trials that take account of the number of subgroups explored and also investigating the ability of each method to detect such subgroup heterogeneity. This evaluation has shown that the plotting of standardised effects, bias‐adjusted bootstrapping method and SIDES method all perform more favourably than traditional approaches such as investigating all subgroup‐by‐treatment interactions individually or applying a global test of interaction. Therefore, these approaches should be considered to aid interpretation and provide context for observed results from subgroup analyses conducted for phase 3 clinical trials.