当前我国社会组织培育和发展中的问题与对策

努力培育和发展社会组织,尽快形成党委领导、政府负责、社会协同、公众参与的公共服务和公共管理新格局,以便提供更多更好的公共服务和公共物品,使人民群众能够在更高水平上实现安居乐业,是我们面临的新历史使命.归纳当前我国社会组织培育和发展工作中形成的新认识,揭示我国社会组织培育和发展中现存的主要问题并探讨解决问题的对策,可为我国社会组织培育和发展工作的有效展开提供借鉴.     

西部地区工业竞争力综合评价

本文基于面板数据的因子分析,从经济效益、科技与人才、能源与环保三个维度对西部十一省工业综合竞争力进行评估。结果表明,西部地区工业竞争力总体水平不高且不平衡明显。其中四川、重庆、陕西、广西、云南是西部具有较强的工业竞争力的地区,而贵州、甘肃、内蒙古、新疆、青海、宁夏竞争力较弱。因此要有针对性地实施发展规划,以促进西部地区工业差距缩小与总体发展水平的提升。     

《采蘩》、《采蘋》、《甘棠》创作年代考论——《诗·召南》创作年代考论之一

《采蘩》为写召南贵族夫人采集白蒿以奉祭祀之作,《采蘋》为写将要出嫁的召南贵族少女采集浮萍、水藻后举行婚前教成祭祀仪式之作,二诗皆当作于周平王（前770年~前720年在位）初年;《甘棠》为召伯虎卒后故西周王畿遗民的悼亡怀念之作,当作于周平王元年至十二年（前770年~前759年）＂二王并立＂之时。     

An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.     

一道全国大学生数学竞赛证明题的推广

本文从一道全国大学生数学竞赛证明题出发,通过综合应用数学分析中的有关定理将题目中的结论进行了一般化的推广,并阐述了其几何意义.     

合理发展:提升中国基础教育质量的新思路

未来中国基础教育质量的提升必须走合理发展之路,满足未来社会发展与人的发展的双重需要。从1986年中国《义务教育法》颁布以后,中国基础教育经历了三个阶段,即普及发展阶段、均衡发展阶段以及以后的合理发展阶段。所谓的合理发展就是符合人的发展之理,具体表现为拒斥蒙昧主义、遵循规律合理性原则;批判现实功利主义,遵循发展合理性原则;抵制浪漫主义,遵循实践合理性原则。合理发展的基本任务是培养目标要照顾社会发展与人的发展的双重需要,人的发展之理意味着学习的意义在于完善自己、发展自己,基础教育实践样态要以"学"为重心。     

Estimation of the cumulative incidence function under multiple dependent and independent censoring mechanisms

Competing risks occur in a time-to-event analysis in which a patient can experience one of several types of events. Traditional methods for handling competing risks data presuppose one censoring process, which is assumed to be independent. In a controlled clinical trial, censoring can occur for several reasons: some independent, others dependent. We propose an estimator of the cumulative incidence function in the presence of both independent and dependent censoring mechanisms. We rely on semi-parametric theory to derive an augmented inverse probability of censoring weighted (AIPCW) estimator. We demonstrate the efficiency gained when using the AIPCW estimator compared to a non-augmented estimator via simulations. We then apply our method to evaluate the safety and efficacy of three anti-HIV regimens in a randomized trial conducted by the AIDS Clinical Trial Group, ACTG A5095.     

多重身份的复合--论唐顺之对曾巩散文的评价

唐顺之作为一名笃诚的心学家、理学家，势必会从思想价值的角度对文学作品进行评价。同时他又是一个优秀的八股文名家、古文评点家，有时又会摆脱心学和理学的思维模式，从文学自身的角度考量创作。受此多重身份的复合影响，唐顺之对道学气息浓厚而艺术性较差的曾巩散文进行评价时，就显得颇为矛盾：既认为“三代以下之文未有如南丰”，又以为曾巩散文法度平实，缺少变化，只能居于唐宋八家之末。     

新媒介背景的儿童类纸质媒体发展取向

数字媒介技术的革新加剧了“图像革命”，造成了人的思考能力的滑坡．这一影响加之于儿童则更加明显。儿童作为特殊且脆弱的社会群体，极易陷入新媒介所搅动的文化漩涡中，传统阅读这一儿童基础性认知技能遭遇到严峻考验。儿童类纸质媒体应充分发挥独有优势，与儿童类数字媒体展开错位竞争。从儿童文化内容的创作生产、儿童文化产品的销售渠道、儿童文化消费的最终实现三个层面完成自身的发展与跨越。