Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences

This article documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The article is the result of a collaborative effort between staff at the two institutions, allowing us to study the time-stamped forecasts as they were made throughout the crisis. The analysis does not exclusively focus on point forecast performance. It also examines methodological contributions, including how financial market data could have been incorporated into the forecasting process.     

Interval estimation of the median effective dose for a logistic dose-response curve

In 1986, Williams showed how, assuming a logistic dose-response curve, one can construct a confidence interval for the median effective dose from the asymptotic likelihood ratio test. He gave reasons for preferring this likelihood ratio interval to the established interval calculated by applying Fieller's theorem to the maximum-likelihood estimates. Here, we assess the impact of applying a Bartlett adjustment to the likelihood ratio statistic and introduce the score test as an alternative approach for constructing a confidence interval for the median effective dose.     

Source Attribution of Food-Borne Zoonoses in New Zealand: A Modified Hald Model

A Bayesian approach was developed by Hald et al .^{( 1 )} to estimate the contribution of different food sources to the burden of human salmonellosis in Denmark. This article describes the development of several modifications that can be used to adapt the model to different countries and pathogens. Our modified Hald model has several advantages over the original approach, which include the introduction of uncertainty in the estimates of source prevalence and an improved strategy for identifiability. We have applied our modified model to the two major food-borne zoonoses in New Zealand, namely, campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis. Major challenges were the data quality for salmonellosis and the inclusion of environmental sources of campylobacteriosis. We conclude that by modifying the Hald model we have improved its identifiability, made it more applicable to countries with less intensive surveillance, and feasible for other pathogens, in particular with respect to the inclusion of nonfood sources. The wider application and better understanding of this approach is of particular importance due to the value of the model for decision making and risk management.     

A Regional Multiplier Approach to Estimating the Impact of Cash Transfers on the Market: The Case of Cash Transfers in Rural Malawi

This article analyses the impact on the local economy of an emergency cash–transfer programme in rural Malawi. The results are of interest, given the growing use of cash transfers as development aid as well as the increasing popularity of such transfers as a form of social protection across sub–Saharan Africa. It uses a form of social accounting matrix to show that there are widespread benefits for the regional economy as a whole (with multiplier estimates of 2.02 to 2.45), especially during the most ‘lean’ periods of the year, and for small farmers and small businesses in particular, as this is where poorer households' purchases are focused; education and health also benefit.