Predicted outcomes in a national sample: A source of comparison for program evaluation

The lack of comparison groups is a common problem for researchers conducting evaluations of small, specialized programs. When conventional comparison groups are not available, the authors suggest a possible alternative approach which involves: (a) locating a sub-group in a national study for whom relevant variables have been measured; (b) generating a statistical model which predicts the outcome of interest in the national data; and (c) applying the predictive model to program data, in order to estimate outcomes in the absence of progam intervention. The authors illustrate this new application by presenting the results of an analysis of data from Project Talent, a national manpower study, and discuss its application to the evaluation of a medical training program in New York City.     

The anatomy lesson: a note on the Merton thesis1

In the sociology of science, the historical analysis of the rise of seventeenth-century experimental science has been dominated by the research of Robert Merton, who argued that Protestant asceticism paved the way for scientific world-views. Merton was criticized by L.S. Feuer who claimed that science was in fact the outcome of hedonism not asceticism. This article supports the Merton thesis on the basis of a note on the historical development of anatomical dissections with special reference to public dissections in Holland m the seventeenth century. The principal difficulty for both Merton and Feuer is that scientific medicine in pre-modern societies was not differentiated from either religion or law. The anatomy lesson was in fact a juridical and moral drama.     

A comment on Rothman and Espenshade

The author comments on a recent article by Eric S. Rothman and Thomas J. Espenshade concerning the fiscal impacts of immigration to the United States. A reply by Espenshade is also included (pp. 354-6).     

Immigrant Children: Their Experience of Violence at School and Community in Host Country

This article describes our qualitative sociological study of immigrant children's life experiences of violence. We conducted interviews with 42 first‐generation immigrant children from any country, aged 9–13 years old, living in the Quebec City region (Canada). Results from three main themes are presented: representations of violence and concrete violent acts experienced; perceived effects of violence on children health and well‐being; and reactions and coping strategies. Overall, the narratives show that they may experience racist peer violence in school that leads to suffering situations, and they consequently have to develop strategies to maintain their well‐being. Social implications are discussed.     

There is no low-level fertility and development trap

The theory of the low-level equilibrium trap asserts that an increase in income stimulates population growth sufficiently so that the additional people ‘eat up’ the ‘surplus’ over subsistence, and hence drive the level of income back to subsistence. Originally the theory referred primarily to mortality, but nowadays its application is to fertility. In the long-run equilibrium context in which the theory is ordinarily presented, the fact that the long-run elasticity of fertility with respect to income is negative in less developed countries fatally contradicts the accepted version of the trap. But to give every chance for trap theory to be meaningful, the paper presents a period-by-period analysis, embodying larger-than-observed positive elasticities during the early years and the logically necessary counterbalancing negative elasticities during the later years. These elasticities are combined with consumption and production figures for various age groups to estimate the effect in each year after the windfall, and altogether. The results show that even under assumptions not charitable to the conclusion of this paper, additional children do not even come close to ‘eating up’ the increase in income which induced their births, so that the trap theory is falsified.     

Between book and cinema: late Victorian new media

The origins of new media can be located in the late 19th century, in the visual archive of this period. This antecedent of today's new media appeared first within the pages of the printed book and article, and its origin is related to the increasingly database style of organization of print media at this time. The organizational form of the visual archive that appeared within such printed pages, however, can also be connected to developments in the moral sciences, in particular, the investigation by physiologists of the material foundations of both vision and of thought. As both the eye and the brain became part of the same physical model, so the visual archive came to include both the database itself, and its organizational frame, within a single image.     

Dynamic Asymmetries in U.S. Unemployment

We examine dynamic asymmetries in U.S. unemployment using nonlinear time series models and Bayesian methods. We find strong statistical evidence in favor of a two-regime threshold auto-regressive model. Empirical results indicate that, once we take into account both parameter and model uncertainty, there are economically interesting asymmetries in the unemployment rate. One finding of particular interest is that shocks that lower the unemployment rate tend to have a smaller effect than shocks that raise the unemployment rate. This finding is consistent with unemployment rises being sudden and falls gradual.