The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?

We provide evidence on the existence of short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the United States and China in 2018. Based on a data set covering monthly product-level information on US imports from 30 countries for the period 2016 until May 2019, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation framework. Doing so, we can show a strong negative direct effect of US tariffs on US imports from China, but do not find evidence for significant short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries.     

Global imbalances and household savings: The role of wealth

Many claim that fluctuations in U.S. private savings help to create and to sustain global imbalances because of their influence on the current account deficit. To test this claim, this paper investigates the determinants of aggregate household savings using a panel of 18 developed countries for the period 1980–2005. We weave two strands of literature: the first strand from consumer theory, considering specifically the ‘wealth effect’, the second strand from aggregate private savings theory. The original contribution of this paper derives from the main explanatory variables of the household savings function: two measures of household wealth, the first a financial variable and the second a variable for tangible/housing stock. The salience of these variables has not been tested before. The model is then enriched with variables taken from the private savings literature. To find the best technique to estimate the long run savings function, unit root and cointegration tests are carried out, from which evidence of a cointegrating relationship is found. The group means FMOLS is used to estimate the model. The empirical evidence suggests effects consistent with theory: an increase in wealth negatively affects household savings. Furthermore, when important explanatory variables, such as government savings and population dependency ratios, are included in the model, tangible wealth becomes the only kind of wealth to (weakly and negatively) influence household savings in developed countries. In the U.S. however, wealth does not seem to affect household savings negatively, it seems instead that government savings and population changes better explain the decline of savings during the past two decades. This finding provides additional evidence on the issue of global imbalances, and suggests that the recent booms of the stock and the real estate markets should not be blamed for the decline in U.S. household and private savings.     

Fear and Urban Planning in Ordinary Cities: From Theory to Practice

The paper complements Abu-Orf's theory about violent settings by setting out a theory of fear in urban planning in ordinary urban contexts around three arguments: spatialization of fear; (modernist) spatialities and the encounter and political economies of urban fear. The three theoretical arguments are used to re-frame the planning history of Chelas, an affordable housing district in Lisbon, Portugal, and debate the way fear shapes, and is shaped in turn by, planning practice. Confirming that (growing) fear in ordinary urban contexts is not just an effect of the contemporary organization of cities, the paper argues for a theorization of fear that combines global (hegemonic) and a local (discursive/contingent) perspectives in the theorization of urban fear, and advocates for the need to put fear, and its capacity to create a crisis in urban policy, at the heart of planners' agendas.     

A multilevel model with autoregressive components for the analysis of tribal art prices

In this paper, we introduce a multilevel model specification with time-series components for the analysis of prices of artworks sold at auctions. Since auction data do not constitute a panel or a time series but are composed of repeated cross-sections, they require a specification with items at the first level nested in time-points. Our approach combines the flexibility of mixed effect models together with the predicting performance of time series as it allows to model the time dynamics directly. Model estimation is obtained by means of maximum likelihood through the expectation–maximization algorithm. The model is motivated by the analysis of the first database ethnic artworks sold in the most important auctions worldwide. The results show that the proposed specification improves considerably over classical proposals both in terms of fit and prediction.     

Coalitional economies with public projects

We prove that the welfare theorems hold in the framework of coalitional exchange economies with public projects, both in case of pure exchange and in the presence of production. The space of agents is assumed to be non-atomic (single traders are negligible) and infinitely many commodities are allowed to be present on the market.     

The Child Under Five in Canberra

An outline is given of the changing attitude of the Australian community towards its responsibility for the care of young children vis á vis the rights of the parents. Canberra's various provisions for the day care of the under-fives is reviewed and the distinction is made between education facilities for the children and ‘child care’ for the benefit of the parents. Because there is no literature in the field of family day care—‘child minding’—a small survey was conducted. Data are presented covering the ages of the children, the composition of the minders' families, charges made, and the minders' and working mothers' attitudes towards the arrangements. In conclusion, some indication is given as to desirable standards for both day care and group care, and suggestions are made about areas for which community responsibility should be taken in the future.     

Bridge closure in the road network of Lombardy: a spatio-temporal analysis of the socio-economic impacts

Statistical Methods & Applications - This paper introduces a methodology to evaluate the socio-economic impacts of closure for maintenance of one or more infrastructures of a large and complex...