A multilevel model with autoregressive components for the analysis of tribal art prices

In this paper, we introduce a multilevel model specification with time-series components for the analysis of prices of artworks sold at auctions. Since auction data do not constitute a panel or a time series but are composed of repeated cross-sections, they require a specification with items at the first level nested in time-points. Our approach combines the flexibility of mixed effect models together with the predicting performance of time series as it allows to model the time dynamics directly. Model estimation is obtained by means of maximum likelihood through the expectation–maximization algorithm. The model is motivated by the analysis of the first database ethnic artworks sold in the most important auctions worldwide. The results show that the proposed specification improves considerably over classical proposals both in terms of fit and prediction.     

The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?

We provide evidence on the existence of short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the United States and China in 2018. Based on a data set covering monthly product-level information on US imports from 30 countries for the period 2016 until May 2019, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation framework. Doing so, we can show a strong negative direct effect of US tariffs on US imports from China, but do not find evidence for significant short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries.     

Coalitional economies with public projects

We prove that the welfare theorems hold in the framework of coalitional exchange economies with public projects, both in case of pure exchange and in the presence of production. The space of agents is assumed to be non-atomic (single traders are negligible) and infinitely many commodities are allowed to be present on the market.     

The Child Under Five in Canberra

An outline is given of the changing attitude of the Australian community towards its responsibility for the care of young children vis á vis the rights of the parents. Canberra's various provisions for the day care of the under-fives is reviewed and the distinction is made between education facilities for the children and ‘child care’ for the benefit of the parents. Because there is no literature in the field of family day care—‘child minding’—a small survey was conducted. Data are presented covering the ages of the children, the composition of the minders' families, charges made, and the minders' and working mothers' attitudes towards the arrangements. In conclusion, some indication is given as to desirable standards for both day care and group care, and suggestions are made about areas for which community responsibility should be taken in the future.     

Designing a Faculty Development Program on Technology

This article illustrates the challenges of creating a faculty development program on technology through the presentation of experiences with one such program, the Virtual Guild. Using examples from the Virtual Guild, the authors focus on the areas of program design and faculty motivation. The discussion of program design involves selecting content and determining the program format. Motivational issues discussed include individual- and organizational-level factors, as well as the combined effect of these factors on faculty participation.     

Franchise- vs. Neugr��ndung: Analyse der Einfl��sse auf Gr��ndungsart und Gr��ndungserfolg

The survey at hand uses a sophisticated classification between derivative and original founders to demonstrate that the group of entrepreneurs consists of several distinct sub-groups or types. With the help of personality traits (Big Five) we examine the different entrepreneurial types. We also investigate how the interaction of personality and entrepreneurial type influences success. The analyses were conducted with a sample of franchise founders (derivative founders) and new business founders (original founders) in Germany. The results in relation to the entrepreneurial type support the distinction between groups as differences were found in personality traits. With respect to the prediction of success we identify interaction effects between personality and entrepreneurial type.     

On the usefulness of government spending in the EU area

This paper investigates the effects of government spending on private consumption and investment in the European Union (EU). A certain consensus has been reached on the expansionary Keynesian effects of fiscal impulses on the economic activity. However, the existing empirical literature has concentrated on few countries, mostly outside the EU. We check the validity of this result for the EU area using annual data and a panel vector auto-regression approach, with particular attention being paid to robustness across alternative identification assumptions based on Cholesky orderings. Our results show that shocks to public spending positively affect private consumption and investment. According to our baseline estimate, a 1% increase in public current expenditure produces a 0.24% impact rise in private consumption, and a 0.41% impact rise in private investment. The effects are substantial, and die out slowly in the case of private consumption (the cumulative impact amounts to +0.56% after 3 years), but much faster in the case of private investment. A further disaggregation between wage and non-wage components reveals that public salaries have a relatively stronger stimulating role. This is not due to the different weights on GDP of the two components, which have comparable values in our sample.     

Estimation of energy expenditure using accelerometers and activity-based energy models��validation of a new device

Over the last few years, the estimation of energy expenditure with accelerometers has become more and more accurate due to improvements in sensor technology. Significant enhancement could be reached by model-based estimation regarding different activity types. The kmsMove-sensor (movisens GmbH, Karlsruhe, Germany) is a device that is used to compute human energy expenditure using motion-dependent calculation models. It is outfitted with an accelerometer to measure body acceleration during certain movements and activities. To validate its accuracy, the sensor was compared to indirect calorimetry as criterion measure. For this experiment, nine subjects (all males, age 46.4 ± 10.9 years, 28–64 years) were equipped with the kmsMove-sensor as well as a portable indirect calorimeter and their energy consumption was measured over a time period of 100 min. Additionally, the energy consumption of seven out of the above-mentioned nine subjects was measured over an average of 7 h. The measurements took place in a rehabilitation clinic, where the subjects completed their regular daily rehabilitation activities. An analysis of the data revealed ICCs between the kmsMove-sensor and indirect calorimetry for the time period of 100 min of 0.82 (0.38–0.96; p = 0.003) and for an averaged measuring time of 7 h of 0.81 (0.22–0.97; p = 0.01). Furthermore, a Bland–Altman analysis for the time period of 100 min led to a difference of the means of 4.3 kcal (limits of agreement: −94.3 and 102.9 kcal) and for the time period of an average of 7 h to −14.0 kcal (limits of agreement: −320.0 and 292.0 kcal). These findings indicate that the kmsMove-sensor is an appropriate measuring device with relatively good accuracy to assess human energy expenditure in rehabilitation patients. However, this study has some limiting aspects (small sample size, artificial setting) which could influence validity.