Can recessions be predicted?

Can recessions, or serious turning points in general, be predicted? Or do forecasters tend to assume that the future will continue as an extension of the near past. Theoretical evidence and practical observations tend to support the hypothesis that forecasters are unduly influenced by current events and feel that booms or contractions in the economy will continue for much longer than they actually do. In the opinion of the authors this is a serious shortcoming of a good majority of those involved with forecasting who do not seem to be learning from experience. The basic question which the authors consider in this article is whether it is possible to avoid either of the two extremes. If this is possible, they argue that this will allow economic signs to be correctly interpreted, which ‘quite often can give clear indications of forthcoming changes in the level of economic activity’.     

Strategies for planning

In recent years there has been a good deal of discussion amongst planning specialists and academics about the gap which exists between the theory of planning as set out in journals and textbooks, and the practice of planning in private and public organizations. Planners are continually complaining about the resistance to planning by top management and operating managers in divisions and departments.In this article the author aims to produce a reconciliation between theory and practice and to discuss what alternative strategies are open to planners in devising planning systems for their organizations.He suggests that the problem has its origin in the fact that corporate planning theory was first developed by management scientists as a total systems approach. Corporate planners have failed to sell an integrated planning system either as programme budgeting or as corporate planning. Research suggests that a management team can only adopt and implement a comprehensive planning system in very special circumstances, e.g. when the organization's survival is threatened, a new management team has been appointed and the staff of the organization are ready to accept radical change.In normal circumstances the planner is wrong to advocate a ‘root and branch’ solution. He must diagnose the planning needs of the organization and his objective must be not merely to establish a particular planning procedure but rather to discover how he can best improve the quality of management decisions.Recent studies on strategy formation indicate that the introduction of a formal planning procedure is only a partial answer to the problem of improving the quality of management decisions.The paper reviews various approaches to planning and considers how they relate to organizations with different strategic problems, with differing organization structures and various management styles.     

Changes in the social definition of early childhood and the new forms of symbolic violence

Conclusion The nursery school may be considered an institution and a market where the habits produced by the family are moulded, developed and standardized; thus, it is confronted with an objective definition of early childhood embedded in pedagogical practices. The proper objective of a sociology of nursery-school practice is the analysis of the lag between the functions delegated to the school by the different social classes and the functions which it objectively tends to fulfill. Here we have the best test of the lag between the pedagogic demands of the different classes and what the schools supply-which is very abstract, with results that are only visible at a later stage in the school career. It is not so much a question of learning to read or of preparing to do so (the acquisition of certain logical operations or a developed sensitivity, of acquiring a few I.Q. points). This learning takes place through many varied activities which apppear to be far from the learning function.All told, the conditions for understanding nursery-school exercises flow from the conditions for inventing these exercises. For instance, in games of manipulation, construction, classifying various objects, is not some knowledge of Piaget (at least in the sense of some psychologikal knowledge) needed to understand that practical manipulation is also logical manipulation, to see in cube games the learning of logic? Similarly, the language naïveté cultivated in language games is a clever naïveté, which supposes for example a cultured re-discovery of popular archaic language or of child talk. p ]Is it not likely to appear as pure childishness to those who, without the ncessary cultural knowledge, do not have the keys to decipher these ostensibly naïve exercises? Similarly, the conditions for understanding children's drawings as artistic learning (and the nursery school as an educational institution) are the very conditions for understanding modern art as art.It is not just a matter of perception and understanding; as the objective definition of early childhood proper to the different social classes becomes pervasive both in the relationship with school and in the socialization practices of the family, it patterns the children's habitus (as long-lasting internalized dispositions), which in turn influence the child's behavior and attitude towards school.The perception categories and the different forms of treatment of young children appropriate to each social class are not simply the result of the diffusion of definitions of early childhood produced by the autonomous evolution of scientific and artistic disciplines. They are the products of all the social and cultural conditions which define the class situation. We may also wonder whether at least some pedagogy and certain types of exercises do not presume that the child has socially marked attitudes, produced in some classes by family inculcation. For instance, a general attitude of disinterested interest is required by a pedagogy offering multiple activities and open to an attitude of active research and exploration. Does not this attitude suppose as an existential possibility the condition of social classes protected from economic pressure and from the urgency of immediate life, a general attitude towards life nearer to leisure than to the constraints of work?Thus, in confronting supply with demand—here even less than elsewhere-there is no question of comparing the expectations arising from users' opinions with the program offered in the official definition of the institution. The expectations are those which arise from objective determinations inherent in each social group, the forms of treatment and perception of early childhood. To analyze the program-and therefore to ascertain the social conditions governing the use of the nursery school—the dominant definition of early childhood on which the institution is founded must be brought to light. Moreover, the way in which this definition is written into the curriculum (and, subsequently, into pedagogical practice) must also be studied. This implies that the preliminary condition for a sociological analysis of the functions performed by the nursery school for the different social classes would be an analysis of a) the components of this dominant definition of early childhood and b) of the social conditions in those groups which make it possible to identify these components.We wish to thank P. Bourdieu for his advice during our research. R. Collins provided useful suggestions after reading the first version of this paper.     

Internalized Other Interviewing in Relational Therapy: Three Discursive Approaches to Understanding its Use and Outcomes

For over 20 years, family therapist Karl Tomm has been engaging families and couples with a therapeutic intervention he calls Internalized Other Interviewing (IOI). The IOI (cf. Emmerson‐Whyte, 2010; Hurley, 2006) entails interviewing clients, from the personal experiences of partners and family members as an internalized other. The IOI is based on the idea that through dialogues over time, one can internalize a sense of one's conversational partner responsiveness in reliably anticipated ways. Anyone who has thought in a conversation with a family member or partner, “Oh there s/he goes again,” or anticipates next words before they leave the other's mouth, has a sense of what we are calling an internalized other. For Tomm, the internalized anticipations partners and family members may have offers entry points into new dialogues with therapeutic potential—particularly, when their actual dialogues get stuck in dispreferred patterns.     

Comparison of Modes of Administration and Response Options in the Assessment of Subjective Health Using the First Question of SF-36

To compare two modes of administration (self-administered; by interviewer) and two response options format (using words; images of “facial-expressions”) of the first question of SF-36 (Q1SF-36), and to test its validity. We included 825 participants (20–90 years). Q1SF-36, using words or images, was included in a global questionnaire interview and at the end participants filled the SF-36. The agreement was tested by weighted kappa coefficients (WKappa). Classification Trees were used in the calibration of Q1SF-36 responses, with the physical (PDSF36) and mental dimensions of SF-36. Polyserial correlation coefficients and areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were used for validation. After categorization, using PDSF36 classification trees, the WKappa were 0.770 (self-administered vs. interviewer), 0.569 (self-administered vs. facial-expressions) and 0.566 (interviewer vs. facial-expressions). The WKappa between the PDSF36 and the modes (self-administered, interviewer and facial-expressions) were 0.784, 0.713 and 0.579 and the corresponding polyserial correlation coefficients were 0.784, 0.713 and 0.579. A good discriminatory power was found comparing the modes with the PDSF36 (AUC = 0.907, 0.923 and 0.827), but not with mental dimension (AUC = 0.538, 0.501 and 0.629). The Q1SF-36, by self-administration or interviewer, may be a valid alternative for assessment of subjective physical health, but not mental health.     

On Combining Wavelets Expansion and Sparse Linear Models for Regression on Metabolomic Data and Biomarker Selection

Wavelet thresholding of spectra has to be handled with care when the spectra are the predictors of a regression problem. Indeed, a blind thresholding of the signal followed by a regression method often leads to deteriorated predictions. The scope of this article is to show that sparse regression methods, applied in the wavelet domain, perform an automatic thresholding: the most relevant wavelet coefficients are selected to optimize the prediction of a given target of interest. This approach can be seen as a joint thresholding designed for a predictive purpose. The method is illustrated on a real world problem where metabolomic data are linked to poison ingestion. This example proves the usefulness of wavelet expansion and the good behavior of sparse and regularized methods. A comparison study is performed between the two-steps approach (wavelet thresholding and regression) and the one-step approach (selection of wavelet coefficients with a sparse regression). The comparison includes two types of wavelet bases, various thresholding methods, and various regression methods and is evaluated by calculating prediction performances. Information about the location of the most important features on the spectra was also obtained and used to identify the most relevant metabolites involved in the mice poisoning.     

Beyond Contact? Policy approaches to work with families of looked after children in four European countries

In England, placement within the looked after system is not viewed as a desirable long‐term solution for most children, and policy has prioritised continued contact with parents, and swift return home, wherever possible. This review examines policy approaches to work with families of looked after children in England and in three other European countries: Denmark, France and the Netherlands, aiming to identify areas for shared learning in relation to this challenging area of policy and practice. The research highlights relationships between care populations and policy understandings of the purpose of work with families, including understandings of children's and/or parents’ rights.     

Toddlers Help Anonymously

Young children are extremely motivated to help others, but it is not clear whether they do so in anonymous situations without social recognition. In two studies, we found that 18‐month‐old toddlers provided help equally in situations where an adult recipient was present and in situations where an adult recipient was not present. We included several control conditions to rule out that toddlers were simply unaware of their anonymity or were merely motivated to restore the physical order of things. Together, these findings suggest that early in ontogeny children are motivated to help others in need regardless of whether they can immediately be recognized for their prosocial intentions.