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201.
Stephen J. Kobrin 《Journal of Policy Modeling》1981,3(2):251-270
Political risk is defined in terms of managerial contingencies arising from political events and processes. A number of “first-generation” assessment methodologies are reviewed and compared in terms of their degree of structure (explicit model of process) and systemization (formalization of methodology). The paper concludes that, at this point, effective political assessment is more likely to result from explicit specification of causal relationships and implementation of systematic analytical procedures than from development of increased methodological sophistication or elegance. 相似文献
202.
Mr. Stephen Worchel 《Journal of Nonverbal Behavior》1986,10(4):230-254
Four studies examined the effects of contextual variables on interpersonal spacing. Contextual variables were defined as transitory factors that involved the setting in which an interaction occurs; these variables were delineated from personal and interpersonal characteristics. In each experimental setting, white male subjects were allowed to choose the distance at which they interacted with a stranger. The first study found that subjects who had experienced social isolation prior to the interaction chose greater distances than subjects who had not been isolated. The second study found that subjects chose greater distances when they believed their interaction would be observed by others than when the interaction was private. Results from the third study yielded an interaction between topic of conversation and expected length of conversation with greatest distance being chosen when subjects expected a long conversation to focus on a personal topic. In the final study, room size and shape influenced interpersonal distance; the interaction indicated that room size affected distance only in rectangular rooms. The results are discussed in terms of equilibrium model (Argyle & Dean, 1965). It is argued that contextual variables affect intimacy, and that the equilibrium model can explicate the effects of contextual as well as personal and interpersonal variables.The help of the following people in conducting the research and analyzing the data is gratefully acknowledged: Elizabeth Brown, Brad Reeves, Michael Satir, Sheryl Vaughn, Mary Holland, Quig Lawrence, William Webb, and Kerry Marsh. Thanks are also in order for an unusually thorough reviewer who raised a number of important issues. 相似文献
203.
204.
Stephen D. Unwin 《Risk analysis》1984,4(2):83-87
While the event tree is a useful diagrammatic aid to an appreciation of various event sequence possibilities, it is of a nature that suggests no obvious manner in which the associated probability data may be compiled as computer input. Here, we propose a complementary numerical representation of scenario possibilities which incorporates probability data in a succinct fashion. While its mnemonic properties facilitate the logical development of a system's characteristics, its compactness and unambiguity permit its utilization directly as computer input. 相似文献
205.
206.
J. Stephen Cleghorn 《Sociological inquiry》1987,57(3):304-315
This study makes a number of comparisons between the theories of Durkheim (1933) and Burawoy (1979) on the link between work and a just social order. These comparisons are used to speculate on the question, Can democratization of the labor process transform capitalist society? Several points of agreement and disagreement are discussed to advance our understanding of the societal effects of changes being introduced at the point of production. It is argued that both the organizational perspective of Durkheim and the political economy perspective of Burawoy agree that the worker as moral actor is the key to how work life will articulate with life in society. The question then becomes whether workers may be differentially involved as moral actors on the job and in society at large. 相似文献
207.
Reese Stephen D.; Danielson Wayne A.; Shoemaker Pamela J.; Chang Tsan-Kuo; Hsu Huei-Ling 《Public opinion quarterly》1986,50(4):563-572
A general interpersonal deference explanation for ethnicity-of-interviewereffects is tested with a random survey of Anglos and Mexican-Americansusing Anglo and Hispanic interviewers and questions relatedto Mexican-American culture. The theory was most clearly supportedamong Anglo respondents. The mixed support found among Mexican-Americanssuggests that deference is strongest when questions deal withthe culture represented by the interviewer, not the respondent. 相似文献
208.
This article explores the theoretical and empirical issues in unit root nonstationarity for multiproduct acreage response systems. A wheat/barley acreage response system for the praire provinces region of Canada is estimated and the existence of a unit root cannot be rejected empirically. It is shown that while the estimates of this system are very similar whether or not a unit root is assumed, the effects of a one-shot policy shock in the two alternative models are very different. 相似文献
209.
Stephen W. Beach 《The Sociological quarterly》1977,18(3):305-318
Most of existing literature assumes that social movement organizations will inevitably become more ideologically and tactically conservative over time. This paper presents a couterargument to this position, suggesting that many movement organizations can be shown to have grown more radical as they have developed. A definition of movement radicalization is constructed, and eight propositions concerning factors which seem to increase the likelihood that a movement organization will radicalize are presented. These factors include repressive action by the agents of social control, changes in the ideological and tactical orientations of the movement organization's constituency, codification of a radicalizing movement's ideology, a reduced likelihood of co-optation, certain aspects of the structural character of the larger society, weak internal controls over the group's members, and the presence of individual radical leaders. Each proposition is illustrated by reference to the career of a North Irish group known as the People's Democracy. 相似文献
210.