Using relative utility curves to evaluate risk prediction

Summary.  Because many medical decisions are based on risk prediction models that are constructed from medical history and results of tests, the evaluation of these prediction models is important. This paper makes five contributions to this evaluation: the relative utility curve which gauges the potential for better prediction in terms of utilities, without the need for a reference level for one utility, while providing a sensitivity analysis for misspecification of utilities, the relevant region, which is the set of values of prediction performance that are consistent with the recommended treatment status in the absence of prediction, the test threshold, which is the minimum number of tests that would be traded for a true positive prediction in order for the expected utility to be non-negative, the evaluation of two-stage predictions that reduce test costs and connections between various measures of performance of prediction. An application involving the risk of cardiovascular disease is discussed.     

Net migration and migration effectiveness: A comparison between Australia and the United Kingdom, 1976–96

This paper explores the impact of net migration in Australia and the United Kingdom using measures of migration effectiveness computed from period-age migration data for four consecutive five-year periods. Results reported in Part 1 of this paper (Stillwellet al. 2000) suggest that while the overall effectiveness of net migration at the scale of city regions has declined over the twenty-year period in both countries, important geographical variations are evident. Part 2 considers how patterns of migration effectiveness vary by age and presents a single classification of all the city regions on the basis of age-specific effectiveness. More detailed analysis includes spatial patterns for particular age groups and net migration profiles of selected regions. Cohort effects are shown to be important for explaining changes between time periods in these regions.     

European‐American and African‐American Mothers' Emotion Socialization Practices Relate Differently to Their Children's Academic and Social‐emotional Competence

The current study examines whether the relation between mothers' responses to their children's negative emotions and teachers' reports of children's academic performance and social‐emotional competence are similar or different for European‐American and African‐American families. Two hundred mothers (137 European‐American, 63 African‐American) reported on their responses to their five‐year‐old children's negative emotions and 150 kindergarten teachers reported on these children's current academic standing and skillfulness with peers. Problem‐focused responses to children's negative emotions, which have traditionally been considered a supportive response, were positively associated with children's school competence for European‐American children, but expressive encouragement, another response considered supportive, was negatively associated with children's competence for African‐American children. The findings highlight the need to examine parental socialization practices from a culturally specific lens.     

Slope Estimation for Bivariate Longitudinal Outcomes Adjusting for Informative Right Censoring Using Discrete Survival Model: Application to the Renal Transplant Cohort

Patients undergoing renal transplantation are prone to graft failure which causes lost of follow-up measures on their blood urea nitrogen and serum creatinine levels. These two outcomes are measured repeatedly over time to assess renal function following transplantation. Loss of follow-up on these bivariate measures results in informative right censoring, a common problem in longitudinal data that should be adjusted for so that valid estimates are obtained. In this study, we propose a bivariate model that jointly models these two longitudinal correlated outcomes and generates population and individual slopes adjusting for informative right censoring using a discrete survival approach. The proposed approach is applied to the clinical dataset of patients who had undergone renal transplantation. A simulation study validates the effectiveness of the approach.     

A pattern-mixture odds ratio model for incomplete categorical data

Most models for incomplete data are formulated within the selection model framework. Pattern-mixture models are increasingly seen as a viable alternative, both from an interpretational as well as from a computational point of view (Little 1993, Hogan and Laird 1997, Ekholm and Skinner 1998). Whereas most applications are either for continuous normally distributed data or for simplified categorical settings such as contingency tables, we show how a multivariate odds ratio model (Molenberghs and Lesaffre 1994, 1998) can be used to fit pattern-mixture models to repeated binary outcomes with continuous covariates. Apart from point estimation, useful methods for interval estimation are presented and data from a clinical study are analyzed to illustrate the methods.     

Doing Good,Public Good,and Public Value

In this article, using multiple illustrative case examples, we demonstrate that philanthropic institutions are in the business of creating public value. In framing the work of philanthropy more broadly to include the process of public value creation, philanthropic institutions and leaders are challenged to be more strategic not only in their mission‐fulfillment grant‐making with nonprofit organizations but also in the way they stimulate and encourage collaboration, create the “third space” necessary to incubate ideas to transform society, and leverage resources to increase the return on their investments toward system‐wide change. The implications for philanthropic actors and institutions suggest that the strategic contributions they make toward creation of public value are those that go beyond transactional performance measures, such as number of dollars spent or clients receiving services, to include ways that their investments are amplified by meaningful partnerships with nonprofit and other organizations, changed behaviors of institutions and individuals, and transformative public policies.     

Reconsidering the Connection between Capacity and Governance

Public Organization Review - High levels of sub-national policy experimentation and public cynicism about politics and government, combined with significant challenges and opportunities for...     

Research Notes on the Best British Companies: a Peer Evaluation of Britain's Leading Firms

The assessment of company performance is one of the major dilemmas facing the strategic researcher. This paper reviews the alternative methods available, then uses one approach, peer assessment, to produce a guide to British company performance. Britain's best companies are identified and their profiles are examined. Their declared financial strengths and relative weaknesses in marketing and innovation are identified.