THE ROLE OF THE MEDIAN LEGISLATOR IN U.S. TRADE POLICY: A HISTORICAL ANALYSIS

In this historical analysis of U.S. trade policy, we apply the median voter model to explain legislative decision making. In this model, the level of tariff protection is expected to change with changes in the median legislator. We show that this simple model does a remarkable job if explaining trade policy until the mid-1930s, when it breaks down. We offer several possible explanations for the breakdown of this model, focusing particularly on the impact of domestic and international institutional changes that may have altered the role of the median legislator in trade policy formation.     

COHORT AND PREJUDICE: WHITES' ATTITUDES TOWARD BLACKS, HISPANICS, JEWS, AND ASIANS

Recent cohorts have been shown to be less prejudiced than theirelders, at least toward blacks. This study addresses two questions:Has this tendency continued among most-recent cohorts of adults?and Does it extend to prejudice toward other ethnic minorities?Using data from a national sample, I focus on stereotype andsocial distance attitudes pertaining to blacks, Hispanics, Asians,and Jews. In general, results indicate that cohorts born alterWorld War II tend to be less prejudiced than prewar cohortstoward each of the four minorities. But most-recent cohortsof Americans show no tendency to be less prejudiced than theirimmediate predecessors born since World War II, and most-recentcohorts residing outside of the South actually tend to be moreprejudiced than their elders.     

CLASSROOM EXPERIMENTS: NOT JUST FUN AND GAMES

The impact of classroom experiments on student performance, attitudes towards economics, and retention is examined. Experiments increase cognitive gains overall but may be more helpful in teaching some topics than others. The size of the impact varies with preferred learning style. Multimodal and kinesthetic learners are significantly affected, while read–write learners fare just as well with the traditional lecture/discussion format. Attitudes towards economics and retention of economic knowledge are also improved by classroom experiments. The results indicate that the costs of implementing experiments in the classroom may very well be offset by the benefits to students. ( JEL A22, C90)     

A multivariate analysis of homogamy in Montevideo,Uruguay

This paper develops multivariate models to describe homogamy or, more generally, marriage preferences, for corresponding characteristics of brides and grooms. The purpose of these models is to obtain interpretable measures of the degree of homogamy (or marriage preference) on one dimension and to adjust these measures for homogamy on other dimensions. The models are applied to a sample of marriages in Montevideo, Uruguay, with pairs of corresponding variables for the brides and grooms. The analysis estimates the unadjusted and adjusted levels of homogamy on previous marital status, age, education, religion, and location. Homogamy on location, or propinquity, is the single most important variable. Previous marital status and age describe the readiness or eligibility to marry and are associated in their effect on homogamy. Education and religion describe vertical and horizontal differentiation of marriage partners, respectively. The multivariate analysis verifies that these dimensions are largely independent of each other.     

THE EFFECTS OF DISCRETIONARY FEDERAL SPENDING ON PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS

Parliamentary rules make it difficult for opposition members of Parliament to influence government spending. As the electorate is aware of this situation discretionary federal spending is expected to affect vote-share differently for majority and opposition incumbents. Consistent estimators yield positive and significant point estimates for the impact of increases in spending for majority incumbents in Canadian federal elections yet yield negative but insignificant point estimates for opposition incumbents. Furthermore, $100 additional federal spending per capita in an electoral district is estimated to increase majority candidates' vote-share, regardless of incumbency, by between 1.5 and 2.5 percentage points. (JEL D72, H59 )     

Aspects of Old Age

Summary The opportunity of growing old has extended but it is an opportunityattended by risks. When old age is accompanied by infirmity,ill-health and economic or social difficulties, many problemsarise for the individual and for society. This paper looks atsome aspects of the incidence and nature of old age and at thesupport provided by social services, and the discussion is illustratedby reference to seven elderly hospital patients. The identityof the person found to be most at risk was predictable.     

REPRESENTATIVE TRUST AND RECIPROCITY: PREVALENCE AND DETERMINANTS

This paper provides evidence about the determinants of trust and reciprocal inclinations, that is, a tendency for people to respond in kind to hostile or kind actions, in a representative setting. We investigate the prevalence of reciprocity in the population, the correlation between trust and positive and negative reciprocal inclinations within person, the individual determinants of reciprocity, and the relationship with psychological measures of personality. We find that most people state reciprocal inclinations, in particular in terms of positive reciprocity, as well as substantial heterogeneity in the degree of trust and reciprocity. Trust and positive reciprocity are only weakly correlated, while trust and negative reciprocity exhibit a negative correlation. In terms of determinants, being female and increasing age are associated with stronger positive and weaker negative reciprocal tendencies. Taller people are more positively reciprocal, but height has no impact on negative reciprocity. Psychological traits also affect trust and reciprocity. ( JEL D63, J3, J6)     

An Additive–Multiplicative Cox–Aalen Regression Model

We propose an additive–multiplicative intensity model that extends the Cox regression model as well as the additive Aalen model. Instead of having a simple baseline intensity the extended model uses an additive Aalen model as its covariate dependent baseline. Approximate maximum likelihood estimators of the baseline intensity functions and the relative risk parameters of the Cox model are suggested by solving the score equations. The derived estimator is efficient. We establish the large sample properties of the estimator. The model provides a simple pragmatic way of including time-varying covariate effects.