THE NONMONETARY EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL FACTORS DURING THE INTERWAR PERIOD

This paper employs vector autoregressions to estimate the nonmonetary effects of financial sector shocks on output and prices during the interwar period. Variance decompositions indicate that the nonmonetary financial proxies have significant and important effects. Impulse response functions indicate that most of the significant shocks to our financial crisis proxies have negative effects on output and prices. Focusing on the depressed conditions of the 1930s, historical decompositions indicate that the nonmonetay financial crisis variables are generally more important than the monetary base in explaining macro behavior. Our findings thus support theoretical models emphasizing the important nonmonetay effects of financial variables.     

THE TECHNOLOGY FACTOR AND THE EXPORT PERFORMANCE OF U.S. MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES

The paper examines two central theories advanced to explain the revealed comparative advantage of U.S. industries. The neo-technological account centers on the process of innovation among industries and is represented in the regression analysis by an R&D intensity variable. The neofactor theory advances both human and "physical" capital as important variables in determining countries' comparative advantage. Foreign protection is postulated to affect the export performance of U.S. industries. Generally the results suggest that U.S. revealed comparative advantage is most pronounced in R&D intensive industries that give the U.S. a temporary technological lead in world markets.     

THE BIASES OF FEDERAL RESERVE BANK PRESIDENTS

This paper develops statistical tests which show that in Federal Open Market Committee voting, Federal Reserve bank presidents, as a group, prefer less expansionary monetary policy than Federal Reserve board members. Further tests show that a subset of Federal Reserve bank presidents vote in a manner which is consistent with the partisanship of the U.S. president during whose term they were appointed. Membership in this subset is highly correlated with a career as an economist. These results have implications for reforms which would alter the voting power of bank presidents on the FOMC.     

Degrees of Involvement: The Interaction of Focus and Commitment in Area Child Protection Committees

Correspondence to Robert Sanders, Lecturer in Applied Social Studies, The Department of Social Policy and Applied Social Studies, University of Wales Swansea, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP; e-mail: R.Sanders{at}swan.ac.uk Summary As part of a review of the role and effectiveness of Area ChildProtection Committees (ACPCs), the authors examined a numberof aspects of the involvement of member agencies in the processof joint development of child protection policies. Interviewswith agency representatives and analysis of documents were usedto explore ACPC composition, attendance at meetings, agenda-setting,effectiveness of representation, and perceived inter-agencyrelationships. Substantial differences were found in the extentto which agencies were involved in the ‘ownership’of the child protection system, with some agencies which couldmake important contributions very much on the periphery of theprocess. It is suggested that this helps to perpetuate the currentemphasis on investigation and registration despite researchfindings which strongly challenge the effectiveness of suchan approach. The article looks at two factors that may influenceagencies' involvement: decentralization of decision making,and the mismatch between the dominant ACPC agenda and policypriorities within agencies other than social services and police.They conclude that basic principles underpinning child protectionservices, for example the policy emphasis on investigation ofall allegations, the development of child protection as a serviceapart from mainstream child welfare, and the role of socialservices as the lead agency should be examined to achieve theeffective involvement of all ACPC member agencies.