Nuclear Waste Management under Approaching Disaster: A Comparison of Decommissioning Strategies for the German Repository Asse II

This article compares different strategies for handling low‐ and medium‐level nuclear waste buried in a retired potassium mine in Germany (Asse II) that faces significant risk of uncontrollable brine intrusion and, hence, long‐term groundwater contamination. We survey the policy process that has resulted in the identification of three possible so‐called decommissioning options: complete backfilling, relocation of the waste to deeper levels in the mine, and retrieval. The selection of a decommissioning strategy must compare expected investment costs with expected social damage costs (economic, environmental, and health damage costs) caused by flooding and subsequent groundwater contamination. We apply a cost minimization approach that accounts for the uncertainty regarding the stability of the rock formation and the risk of an uncontrollable brine intrusion. Since economic and health impacts stretch out into the far future, we examine the impact of different discounting methods and rates. Due to parameter uncertainty, we conduct a sensitivity analysis concerning key assumptions. We find that retrieval, the currently preferred option by policymakers, has the lowest expected social damage costs for low discount rates. However, this advantage is overcompensated by higher expected investment costs. Considering all costs, backfilling is the best option for all discounting scenarios considered.     

‘Hidden identities’: perceptions of sexual identity in Beijing

This article draws upon responses given by volunteers who work in the Beijing LGBT Centre regarding perceptions of sexual identity, and how Chinese culture affects hidden or open sexual identities of Chinese lesbian and gay people in this region. The insights gained from those working carefully to create social change offers an important and original contribution to the field of gay and lesbian studies in China. The findings indicate the volunteers at the Beijing LGBT Centre are frustrated by the lack of acceptance of non‐heterosexual relationships among Chinese culture and society, and by the disregard of lesbian gay and bisexual (LGB) people by the Chinese government. The findings also illustrate stigmatization of homosexuality in China is enacted in structural terms (such as in the lack of policy, legislation and positive endorsement by governmental and socio‐political organizations), public expression (such as negative attitudes, beliefs or reactions towards LGB people) and internalized repression (through fear of stigmatization, and subsequent abuse due to negative societal attitudes and discrimination). Influenced by the Chinese tradition of conforming to group values, the findings from this study show that volunteers at the Beijing LGBT Centre believe LGB people in China are generally hesitant to disclose their sexual identities, and reject the idea that there had been a collective shift in Chinese culture regarding increased acceptance of LGB people. It also finds volunteers at the LGBT Centre in Beijing blame Chinese culture for its lack of acceptance of non‐heterosexual relationships, and state stigmatization of homosexuality in China is due to deep‐rooted cultural homophobia.     

How Should Autonomous Cars Drive? A Preference for Defaults in Moral Judgments Under Risk and Uncertainty

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) promise to make traffic safer, but their societal integration poses ethical challenges. What behavior of AVs is morally acceptable in critical traffic situations when consequences are only probabilistically known (a situation of risk) or even unknown (a situation of uncertainty)?  How do people retrospectively evaluate the behavior of an AV in situations in which a road user has been harmed? We addressed these questions in two empirical studies (N = 1,638) that approximated the real‐world conditions under which AVs operate by varying the degree of risk and uncertainty of the situation. In Experiment 1, subjects learned that an AV had to decide between staying in the lane or swerving. Each action could lead to a collision with another road user, with some known or unknown likelihood. Subjects’ decision preferences and moral judgments varied considerably with specified probabilities under risk, yet less so under uncertainty. The results suggest that staying in the lane and performing an emergency stop is considered a reasonable default, even when this action does not minimize expected loss. Experiment 2 demonstrated that if an AV collided with another road user, subjects’ retrospective evaluations of the default action were also more robust against unwanted outcome and hindsight effects than the alternative swerve maneuver. The findings highlight the importance of investigating moral judgments under risk and uncertainty in order to develop policies that are societally acceptable even under critical conditions.     

Global kernel estimator and test of varying‐coefficient autoregressive model

We propose a varying‐coefficient autoregressive model that contains additive models, varying‐ coefficient models, partially linear models and low‐dimensional interaction models as special cases. A global kernel backfitting method is proposed for the estimation and inference of parameters and unknown functions in this model. Key large‐sample results are established, including estimation consistency, asymptotic normality and the generalized likelihood ratio test for parameters and non‐parametric functions. The proposed methodology is examined by simulation studies and applied to examine the relationship between suicide news reports in the three leading newspapers and the daily number of suicides in Taiwan. The relationship between the media reporting and suicide incidence has been established and explored. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 487–519; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Rethinking the informal and criminal economy from a global commodity chain perspective: China–Paraguay–Brazil

The criminalization of Chinese counterfeit goods in the global market calls for a fresh approach to understanding well‐established binary distinctions such as legal/illegal, licit/illicit, and formal/informal. Based on a multi‐sited ethnography in China, Paraguay and Brazil, I examine five commodity chains of two products – toys and watches – and their regulatory frameworks in terms of merchandise status, business formality, and international transaction legality. Certain merchandise produced in the formal economy has no legal definition a priori, but legal variability starts when goods leave the factory. A great interchangeability of a product's legal status existed along its chain according to governance structures, legal cultures, geographical domains, and power relations. These findings suggest that the illicit is a relational category and the so‐called criminal economy is not a segmented market, but part of a global process integrated with formality and marked by great legal variability within and between nations.     

Optimal Abort Rules for Multiattempt Missions

Many real‐world systems use mission aborts to enhance their survivability. Specifically, a mission can be aborted when a certain malfunction condition is met and a risk of a system loss in the case of a mission continuation becomes too high. Usually, the rescue or recovery procedure is initiated upon the mission abort. Previous works have discussed a setting when only one attempt to complete a mission is allowed and this attempt can be aborted. However, missions with a possibility of multiple attempts can occur in different real‐world settings when accomplishing a mission is really important and the cost‐related and the time‐wise restrictions for this are not very severe. The probabilistic model for the multiattempt case is suggested and the tradeoff between the overall mission success probability (MSP) and a system loss probability is discussed. The corresponding optimization problems are formulated. For the considered illustrative example, a detailed sensitivity analysis is performed that shows specifically that even when the system's survival is not so important, mission aborting can be used to maximize the multiattempt MSP.     

Networking towards (in)equality: Women entrepreneurs in technology

Deploying a multidimensional framework focusing on individual, organizational and societal factors, we investigate gendering practices through which women entrepreneurs become disadvantaged in the technology sector. Through qualitative fieldwork, we focus on women entrepreneurs' experiences networking to access valuable entrepreneurial resources and examine the role of technology incubators and accelerators in facilitating this access. These organizations have the potential to mitigate gender inequities by adopting gender‐aware practices such as increasing access to networks and resources that might otherwise be unreachable for women technology entrepreneurs. Focusing simultaneously on the complex intersections of networking, organizational practices at incubators and accelerators, and institutionalized gender norms in society, we outline how different gendering practices work separately and in tandem to marginalize women technology entrepreneurs. We observe that these organizations engage in ‘gender neutral’ recruitment practices and promote transactional networking which result in the replication rather than eradication of gender inequality. Moreover, organizational attempts to address ‘gender issues’ as they relate to technology entrepreneurs re‐inscribe rather than disrupt societal gender norms. Our research offers new insights for understanding the interrelated individual, organizational and societal factors contributing to gender inequality in technology entrepreneurship and provokes discussion on the possibilities for social change.     

Clinical Capital and the Risk of Maternal Labor and Delivery Complications: Hospital Scheduling,Timing, and Cohort Turnover Effects

The establishment of interventions to maximize maternal health requires the identification of modifiable risk factors. Toward the identification of modifiable hospital‐based factors, we analyze over 2 million births from 2005 to 2010 in Texas, employing a series of quasi‐experimental tests involving hourly, daily, and monthly circumstances where medical service quality (or clinical capital) is known to vary exogenously. Motivated by a clinician's choice model, we investigate whether maternal delivery complications (1) vary by work shift, (2) increase by the hours worked within shifts, (3) increase on weekends and holidays when hospitals are typically understaffed, and (4) are higher in July when a new cohort of residents enter teaching hospitals. We find consistent evidence of a sizable statistical relationship between deliveries during nonstandard schedules and negative patient outcomes. Delivery complications are higher during night shifts (OR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.18–1.25), and on weekends (OR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04–1.14) and holidays (OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.04–1.60), when hospitals are understaffed and less experienced doctors are more likely to work. Within shifts, we show deterioration of occupational performance per additional hour worked (OR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01–1.02). We observe substantial additional risk at teaching hospitals in July (OR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.14–1.43), reflecting a cohort‐turnover effect. All results are robust to the exclusion of noninduced births and intuitively falsified with analyses of chromosomal disorders. Results from our multiple‐test strategy indicate that hospitals can meaningfully attenuate harm to maternal health through strategic scheduling of staff.     

On the use of priors in goodness‐of‐fit tests

Priors are introduced into goodness‐of‐fit tests, both for unknown parameters in the tested distribution and on the alternative density. Neyman–Pearson theory leads to the test with the highest expected power. To make the test practical, we seek priors that make it likely a priori that the power will be larger than the level of the test but not too close to one. As a result, priors are sample size dependent. We explore this procedure in particular for priors that are defined via a Gaussian process approximation for the logarithm of the alternative density. In the case of testing for the uniform distribution, we show that the optimal test is of the U‐statistic type and establish limiting distributions for the optimal test statistic, both under the null hypothesis and averaged over the alternative hypotheses. The optimal test statistic is shown to be of the Cramér–von Mises type for specific choices of the Gaussian process involved. The methodology when parameters in the tested distribution are unknown is discussed and illustrated in the case of testing for the von Mises distribution. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 560–579; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada