Bringing Registration into Models of Vote Overreporting

Voting is a socially desirable act and a basic form of politicalparticipation in the United States. This social desirabilitysometimes leads respondents in surveys, such as the NationalElection Study (NES), to claim to have voted when they did not.The methodology of previous studies assumes that people onlyoverreport voting and that the sample of potential overreporters(i.e., nonvalidated voters) is not systematically differentfrom the sample of potential voters. In this research note,we explore several different ways of examining the determinantsof overreporting at two different stages (registering and voting)and with a consideration for selection bias. Comparing the traditionalprobit model used in previous research with sequential and heckitprobit models, we find that the determinants of overreportingregistering and voting differ substantially. In addition, thereis a significant selection effect at the registration stageof overreporting. We conclude with a discussion of contemporaryimplications for pre-election polling and the postelection analysisof survey data. Received for publication April 20, 2005. Revision received April 25, 2006. Accepted for publication October 17, 2006.     

Determinants of Household Insurance Coverage Among Low‐Income Families from Boston,Chicago, and San Antonio: Evidence from the Three‐City Study*

Objectives. In this article we examine correlates of health insurance coverage for low‐income households. Methods. Using data from the Welfare, Children, and Families Project (1999–2001), a sample of 2,402 low‐income families from Boston, Chicago, and San Antonio, we estimate two logistic regressions, one that predicts health insurance coverage for one focal child in each household and another that assesses the odds that all children in the household have coverage. Results. The children of poorly‐educated, immigrant, and Mexican‐origin parents are at an elevated risk of lacking insurance. These characteristics also increase the risk of incomplete household coverage. Mexican‐origin children and households are at particularly high risk of lacking complete coverage, a fact partially reflecting their residential concentration in states with high uninsurance rates, such as Texas. Conclusions. Serious holes in the health‐care safety net affect poor Americans differently based on their state of residence, race, ethnicity, and household structure.     

WHAT PREDICTS RELIGIOUS PARTICIPATION AND GIVING? IMPLICATIONS FOR RELIGION IN THE UNITED STATES

In this article, we test whether or not positive/negative sanctioning increases religious behavior. Using data from the 1998 congregational module of the General Social Survey we find that, net of other predictors, immediate positive sanctions (receiving help from the congregation) and immediate negative sanctions (receiving criticism from the congregation) significantly increase the amount of money given by respondents to religious organizations. Our results also indicate that sanctions promised in the future (belief in Heaven and belief in Hell) have little to no effect on religious giving. Furthermore, we find that immediate positive and negative sanctions as well as future negative sanctions predict greater participation in religious organizations, while future positive sanctions show no such effects. The results are discussed in the context of the emerging trend of waning religious involvement in the contemporary United States.     

Social pensions and policy learning: The case of southern Africa

In the last decade and particularly since the publication of the Millennium Development Goals, social pensions have captured the interest of those concerned with the well-being of older people across that large part of the world where formal, contributions-financed, old-age benefit systems cover only a minority of the population. International organizations have turned their attention to such schemes and some see them as having a valuable role to play. However, information about what they are and how they work, and about their efficacy in meeting the objectives set for them, is still limited. Learning has been taking place not only in the international organizations but also in the region where they are most prominent – southern Africa. Such learning should be encouraged and the International Social Security Association has a part to play in this learning process.     

Pensions in Nigeria: The performance of the new system of personal accounts

In 2004, Nigeria copied the 1981 Chilean pension reform and established a funded system based upon personal accounts. The new system was neither appropriate for a country such as Nigeria, nor did it meet aspirations of improving pension coverage or helping economic growth. The current financial and economic crisis hit the scheme in so far as it hit stock values. However, more important has been the negative real interest rates that can be earned on government bonds and on bank deposits — where the majority of contributions are invested. Bank scandals and rising fiscal deficits do not breed confidence in the system or the government's ability to deliver meaningful benefits in old age.     

Racial Disparities in Access to Mortgage Credit: Does Governance Matter?*

Objectives. This article examines the effect of community organizing on the likelihood that minority borrowers pursue home mortgage credit from regulated lenders. Methods. Governance perspectives suggest that community organizations exert significant influence on policy outcomes. We use logistic regression with interaction terms to test the effect of community organizing on the lending outcomes of minority borrowers. We use a matched control sample of cities, drawing on 2004 loan data from two midwestern cities similar in racial and economic composition but with different histories of organizing around the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). Results. We find differential effects based on an applicant's race or ethnicity. Overall, African‐American applicants are less likely to pursue mortgage credit for home ownership from regulated lenders than their white, non‐Hispanic counterparts. However, African Americans seeking mortgage credit in a city with a history of CRA organizing are more likely to apply to regulated lenders than their racial counterparts in a city without CRA organizing. However, while organizing reduces the disparities between white and African‐American applicants, a gap still remains. Conclusion. African‐American borrowers living in cities with a history of community organizing around CRA appear more likely to pursue mortgage credit from traditional, regulated lenders, suggesting that governance matters.