Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts

Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical analyses of past forecast errors, or on a combination of the two. In this article, we develop and test prediction intervals based on empirical analyses of past forecast errors for counties in the United States. Using decennial census data from 1900 to 2000, we apply trend extrapolation techniques to develop a set of county population forecasts; calculate forecast errors by comparing forecasts to subsequent census counts; and use the distribution of errors to construct empirical prediction intervals. We find that empirically-based prediction intervals provide reasonably accurate predictions of the precision of population forecasts, but provide little guidance regarding their tendency to be too high or too low. We believe the construction of empirically-based prediction intervals will help users of small-area population forecasts measure and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in population forecasts and plan more effectively for the future.     

An Examination of the Dual Model of Perfectionism and Adolescent Athlete Burnout: A Short-Term Longitudinal Research

The dual model of perfectionism (Slade and Owens, Behav Modificat 22(3):372–390, 1998) is adopted to examine the influence of adaptive and maladaptive perfectionism on adolescent athlete burnout in Taiwan. Participants were 188 high school adolescent student-athletes (M = 16.48, SD = .59). They were administered the Multidimensional Inventory of Perfectionism in Sport (Stoeber et al., Pers Individ Dif 43(1):131–141, 2007) and the Chinese Athlete Burnout Questionnaire (ABQ) (Lu et al., Phys Educ J 39(3):83–94, 2006). A field longitudinal design was used. In cross-sectional analyses, hierarchical multiple regressions indicated that adaptive perfectionism negatively predicted athlete burnout while maladaptive perfectionism had an inverse relationship with burnout. However, after controlling for the initial scores of burnout, neither adaptive nor maladaptive perfectionism significantly predicted athlete burnout after a three month interval. Possible mechanisms of this relation, limitations, and practical implications are discussed.     

Can We Compare Life Satisfaction Between Nationalities? Evaluating Actual and Imagined Situations

Do differences in reported life satisfaction between societies reflect real differences or do they reflect cultural differences in the way people rate their experiences? Study 1 showed that imagining better or worse life situations affected student respondents’ ratings of their own life satisfaction, as predicted by range–frequency theory. Study 2 investigated how German and Polish students rated their actual life satisfaction and how satisfied they would be under three imagined scenarios. Study 3 similarly compared Danish and Hungarian students. Both studies found significant differences in the rating of the hypothetical situations, and moderate correlations between ratings of satisfaction in the hypothetical situations and reality, but in neither study were national differences in actual satisfaction predicted by differences in hypothetical satisfaction. Overall, the results suggest that national differences in rated life satisfaction are real rather than reflecting differences in how satisfaction is rated.     

Using Qualitative Methods with Poor Children in Urban Ethiopia: Opportunities &; Challenges

This paper discusses the advantages and challenges of using qualitative methods to elicit poor children’s perspectives about threats and positive influences on their wellbeing. It draws on research carried out by the author on the subjective experiences of poor children in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia in terms of their understandings of wellbeing, threats to their wellbeing, coping strategies, and positive or resilient outcomes. After a brief introduction reviewing previous approaches to child poverty in general and research on Ethiopian children in particular, the second section describes the research setting and the ethical approach to the study, which influenced how consent was obtained and the data analysed. The paper then describes the use of qualitative methods such as semi-structured interviews, draw-and-tell, and diaries, the kinds of data they produced and the methodological and ethical dilemmas and tensions encountered in using them. It concludes that despite the challenges qualitative methods are invaluable in order to understand what poor children see as threats and positive influences on their wellbeing.

Social Harmony in Hong Kong: Level,Determinants and Policy Implications

This study aims at ascertaining how Hong Kong people perceive Hong Kong as a harmonious society. It also identifies the elements that are most conducive to social harmony in Hong Kong, so that the government could take reference when formulating new policies. 1,062 adults residents were asked to rate their perceived level of social harmony and their satisfaction with 36 items (divided into three dimensions: public governance, society, and economy, family and work) for which the research team believes would be influencing the perceived level of social harmony. Results show that the average rating of social harmony was 5.57 (out of 10), delineating a moderate level of social harmony. Subsequent multivariate factor analysis and regression analysis show that the four extracted factors (from the three dimensions) had significant impacts on the level of social harmony. These were, in order of significance: (a) public governance, (b) social solidarity and respect, (c) economy/family/work and, (d) social tolerance and progressiveness. According to the factor loadings of each significant factor, we identified four core values which we hope the government would consider when formulating new policies, as follows: (1) A Justice Government with Sincerity on Communication, (2) Mutual Support and Respect with Integrity and Dedication, (3) Dedication to One’s Job and Community by Helping the Needed and, (4) Creativity and Progressiveness with Tolerance. Implications for policy making are discussed. The study was conducted under the direction and guidance of the Fostering Social Harmony Task Force of the Hong Kong Professionals and Senior Executives Association (HKPASEA). The authors acknowledge the kind support and assistance provided by the Council Members of HKPASEA and staff members of the Centre for Corporate Governance and Financial Policy at Hong Kong Baptist University. We are also grateful to Prof. Alex Michalos and Prof. P. K. Ip for their comments and suggestions given at the International Conference on National Well-Being held in November 2006 at the National Central University, Taiwan.