An approach to the treatment evaluation of Hodgkin's disease

Hodgkin's disease is a cancer of the lymphatic system. The major feature influencing the type of treatment employed, and the ultimate prognosis, is the stage or extent of disease prior to therapy. This paper is concerned with evaluating the difference in patient progress of two staging procedures. One (pathological staging) procedure is more extensive than the other (clinical staging). The evaluation is carried out by firstly developing a mathematical model of patient progress for pathologically staged patients and then using this model to predict what would have happened to clinically staged patients if they had been treated according to their pathological stage. Comparison of these predictions with actual results suggests that pathologically staged patients appear to remain in disease free survival (remission) following radio-therapy longer than clinically staged patients.     

Prehistoric human impact on the environment in the upland North American Southwest

Some early Anasazi (prehistoric Puebloan) agricultural practices tended to be land-extensive and made substantial impact on the forests, primarily through clearing by burning. Later agriculture tended to be more land-intensive, but longer duration occupations by larger populations also had significant local effects on the forests, through both clearing for fields and through intensive harvest of firewood. Strategies of early Anasazi agriculture that resulted in forest depletion probably also tended to maximize the power output of the economic systems, and therefore must have had considerable selective value. Depletion of various wild resources was an important impetus to culture change, leading, in conjunction with population growth, to more intensive farming practices, and contributing to the tendency to aggregate in large villages at various times in the prehistoric period.     

An intervention analysis of the effects of legalized abortion upon U.S. fertility

Models of time series data on births in the United States are used to assess the impact of the 1973 decision of the U.S. Supreme Court invalidating statutes that seriously restrict access to abortion. The decision of the Court is found to have no discernible impact on births for the nation as a whole. Models of state-level data suggest that the legalization of abortion by states prior to the decision was satisfying the demand for abortion     

Leadership in Social Work Education and the Social Change Model of Leadership

Leadership is a topic of international debate in both social work education and practice. Questions remain, however, regarding what specific models of leadership should be emphasized and how leadership content should be infused within the social work curriculum. This paper seeks to contribute to the ongoing discussion about the infusion of leadership within social work education. Specifically, this paper shares the design and development of a graduate-level social work course in program evaluation that infused education around the social change model of leadership (SCM) and then explores qualitatively how 39 graduate students interpreted and applied this model of leadership through an experiential community-based evaluation project. Findings of this study suggest that students utilized the values identified in the SCM in a range of ways to understand and interpret their leadership experience both in their collaborative groups and in their partnerships with community-based organizations. Community organizations also reported benefiting from the experience in partnership with the students. Implications are discussed in relation to the potential value and impact of this model for social work education.     

The Active Audience? Gurus,Management Ideas and Consumer Variability

This study draws on an active audience perspective to develop a better understanding of mass audiences' attraction towards popular management ideas. It focuses on audience members' own experiences and, in particular, what audience activities actually play a role in shaping mass attraction, and how the deployment of these activities may vary. Analysing 65 in‐depth interviews with management practitioners in their role as audience members of guru seminars, the authors identify different key consumption activities, and explain how individual management practitioners may shift in consumption orientation throughout the communication process. This paper argues that such a broader and more dynamic understanding of consumption activity is essential in understanding the success and impact of management ideas, and opens several fruitful research directions.     

Test of a Trust and Confidence Model in the Applied Context of Electromagnetic Field (EMF) Risks

Trust is an important factor in risk management. There is little agreement among researchers, however, on how trust in risk management should be studied. Based on a comprehensive review of the trust literature a "dual-mode model of social trust and confidence" is proposed. Trust and confidence are separate but, under some circumstances, interacting sources of cooperation. Trust is based on value similarity, and confidence is based on performance. According to our model, judging similarity between an observer's currently active values and the values attributed to others determines social trust. Thus, the basis for trust is a judgment that the person to be trusted would act as the trusting person would. Interpretation of the other's performance influences confidence. Both social trust and confidence have an impact on people's willingness to cooperate (e.g., accept electromagnetic fields or EMF in the neighborhood). The postulated model was tested in the applied context of EMF risks. Structural equation modeling procedures and data from a random sample of 1,313 Swiss citizens between 18 and 74 years old were used. Results indicated that after minor modifications the model explained the data very well. In the applied context of EMF risks, both trust and confidence had an impact on cooperation. Results suggest that the dual-mode model of social trust and confidence could be used as a common framework in the field of trust and risk management. Practical implications of the results are discussed.     

A LARGE-SCALE PERSONNEL ASSIGNMENT MODEL FOR THE NAVY*

The U.S. Navy has been trying for years to develop a model to automate its personnel assignment process The requirement of rotating navy personnel frequently between sea duty and shore duty in accordance with multiple policies makes modeling efforts difficult. However, without a model to optimize assignments with regard to multiple policies, navy managers do not know the real impact of personnel assignments. This limits their ability to make effective decisions. This paper summarizes our effort to develop a large-scale network model for the navy's assignment problem. The navy has accepted this model for implementation, replacing the current manual assignment process. The approach in this paper can be generalized to a wide variety of perosnnel assignment problems.     

A COMPARISON OF LEARNING CURVE ANALYSIS AND MOVING AVERAGE RATIO ANALYSIS FOR DETAILED OPERATIONAL PLANNING*

This study tests the use of learning curve analysis for production planning at the detailed component level under various conditions, represented by factors of product turnover rate, learning rate, variance levels, and planning horizon length. It also presents an alternative to learning curve analysis that considers aggregation of cost data across time. This alternative is periodic revision of standard cost data using moving average forecasts to reflect productivity trends. Results of this study indicate that in most circumstances a moving average analysis can provide better estimates of short-term, detailed component operations costs than either a learning curve analysis or a standard analysis.