Evaluating Direct Multistep Forecasts

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing applied to direct, multistep predictions from nested regression models. We first derive asymptotic distributions; these nonstandard distributions depend on the parameters of the data-generating process. We then use Monte Carlo simulations to examine finite-sample size and power. Our asymptotic approximation yields good size and power properties for some, but not all, of the tests; a bootstrap works reasonably well for all tests. The paper concludes with a reexamination of the predictive content of capacity utilization for inflation.     

Statistical Tools on the World Wide Web

The World Wide Web (WWW) represents a powerful tool for furthering the development and practice of statistics. The GASP (Globally Accessible Statistical Procedures) WWW site has been set up as a primary listing of statistical procedures which can be used over the WWW. This article highlights several possible approaches for making a procedure WWW accessible. These approaches effectively solve many of the problems typically encountered when using a new statistical procedure. Applying the methods discussed, any statistical technique can be made available to anyone with a forms- or Java-capable WWW browser. Procedures can be delivered in a virtually platform-independent manner with only minimal requirements on a user's hardware or software.     

A Method for Simulating Multivariate Non Normal Distributions with Specified Standardized Cumulants and Intraclass Correlation Coefficients

Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) are commonly used indices in subject areas such as biometrics, longitudinal data analysis, measurement theory, quality control, and survey research. The properties of the ICCs most often used are derived under the assumption of normality. However, real-world data often violate the normality assumption. In view of this, a computationally efficient procedure is developed for simulating multivariate non normal continuous distributions with specified (a) standardized cumulants, (b) Pearson intercorrelations, and (c) ICCs. The linear model specified is a two-factor design with either fixed or random effects. A numerical example is worked and the results of a Monte Carlo simulation are provided to demonstrate and confirm the methodology.     

Sexual and gender identity work on social media

How do sexual and gender minorities use social media to express themselves and construct their identities? We discuss findings drawn from focus groups conducted with 17 sexual and gender minority social media users who shared their experiences of online harms. They include people with gay, lesbian, bisexual, trans, queer, asexual, non-binary, pansexual, poly, and kink (LGBTQ+) identities. We find that sexual and gender minorities face several challenges online, but that social media platforms provide important spaces for them to feel understood and accepted. We use Goffman's work to explore how sexual and gender minorities engage in ‘front region’ performances online as part of their identity work. We then turn to Hochschild's concepts of ‘feeling rules’ and ‘framing rules’ to argue that presentations of self, or front region performances, must include the role of feelings and how they are socially influenced to be understood.     

Information fraction estimation: Strategies for a phase 3 non-inferiority maximum duration design with time to event outcome

There is considerable debate surrounding the choice of methods to estimate information fraction for futility monitoring in a randomized non-inferiority maximum duration trial. This question was motivated by a pediatric oncology study that aimed to establish non-inferiority for two primary outcomes. While non-inferiority was determined for one outcome, the futility monitoring of the other outcome failed to stop the trial early, despite accumulating evidence of inferiority. For a one-sided trial design for which the intervention is inferior to the standard therapy, futility monitoring should provide the opportunity to terminate the trial early. Our research focuses on the Total Control Only (TCO) method, which is defined as a ratio of observed events to total events exclusively within the standard treatment regimen. We investigate its properties in stopping a trial early in favor of inferiority. Simulation results comparing the TCO method with alternative methods, one based on the assumption of an inferior treatment effect (TH0), and the other based on a specified hypothesis of a non-inferior treatment effect (THA), were provided under various pediatric oncology trial design settings. The TCO method is the only method that provides unbiased information fraction estimates regardless of the hypothesis assumptions and exhibits a good power and a comparable type I error rate at each interim analysis compared to other methods. Although none of the methods is uniformly superior on all criteria, the TCO method possesses favorable characteristics, making it a compelling choice for estimating the information fraction when the aim is to reduce cancer treatment-related adverse outcomes.     

The Effects of Knowledge Management on Team Members' Ratings of Project Success and Impact*

Many organizations are trying to improve the generation and utilization of knowledge. The activities associated with these efforts are identified as organizational knowledge management (KM). While much has been written about knowledge management from the organizational level, the success of such efforts over the long run will depend upon on how KM activities impact important outcomes as perceived by those at the employee level who actually implement the activities. This study used the input‐process‐output framework of team effectiveness to investigate the relationship between selected KM‐related activities on integrated product and process development team members' satisfaction with their project's success and the impact they expected it to have on the organization. The results indicate that team‐level leadership and support (i.e., inputs), along with knowledge generation and dissemination (i.e., processes), are key drivers of member performance‐related ratings (i.e., outputs). Finally, and possibly most importantly, a number of interactions were evident suggesting that the KM processes moderate the effects of the KM inputs. These findings and their implications are discussed.     

Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows

News—or foresight—about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non‐fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading example of foresight, simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and information structures that generate non‐fundamental equilibria. Econometric analyses that fail to model foresight will obtain biased estimates of output multipliers for taxes; biases are quantitatively important when two canonical theoretical models are taken as data generating processes. Both the nature of equilibria and the inferences about the effects of anticipated tax changes hinge critically on hypothesized information flows. Different methods for extracting or hypothesizing the information flows are discussed and shown to be alternative techniques for resolving a non‐uniqueness problem endemic to moving average representations.     

Intersensory processing of faces and voices at 6 months predicts language outcomes at 18, 24, and 36 months of age

Intersensory processing of social events (e.g., matching sights and sounds of audiovisual speech) is a critical foundation for language development. Two recently developed protocols, the Multisensory Attention Assessment Protocol (MAAP) and the Intersensory Processing Efficiency Protocol (IPEP), assess individual differences in intersensory processing at a sufficiently fine-grained level for predicting developmental outcomes. Recent research using the MAAP demonstrates 12-month intersensory processing of face-voice synchrony predicts language outcomes at 18- and 24-months, holding traditional predictors (parent language input, SES) constant. Here, we build on these findings testing younger infants using the IPEP, a more comprehensive, fine-grained index of intersensory processing. Using a longitudinal sample of 103 infants, we tested whether intersensory processing (speed, accuracy) of faces and voices at 3- and 6-months predicts language outcomes at 12-, 18-, 24-, and 36-months, holding traditional predictors constant. Results demonstrate intersensory processing of faces and voices at 6-months (but not 3-months) accounted for significant unique variance in language outcomes at 18-, 24-, and 36-months, beyond that of traditional predictors. Findings highlight the importance of intersensory processing of face-voice synchrony as a foundation for language development as early as 6-months and reveal that individual differences assessed by the IPEP predict language outcomes even 2.5-years later.     

Re-examining female labor supply responses to the 1994 Australian pension reform

Many governments are aiming to extend working lives by raising the age at which people can claim retirement pensions. This makes it vital to understand how these policies affect retirement decisions. In this paper, I revisit the labor supply effects of a major Australian reform that increased women’s pension age from 60 to 65. Atalay and Barrett (2015) studied these effects using repeated household surveys and a differences-in-differences design in which male cohorts form the comparison group. They estimate that the reform increased female labor force participation by 12 percentage points. Using earlier data, I show that the parallel-trends assumption did not hold before the reform because of a strong female-specific trend in participation rates across the relevant cohorts. Accounting for this trend, the estimated effect on female participation falls by two-thirds and becomes statistically insignificant at conventional levels. This highlights the importance of carefully assessing and controlling for trends across cohorts when evaluating pension reforms, which are typically phased in across cohorts.