EMPIRICAL FEATURES OF THE SECOND-GENERATION TARGET ZONE MODELS: MEAN-REVERTING FUNDAMENTALS AND ENDOGENOUS DEVALUATION RISK

We show that within Bertola and Svensson's second-generation target zone model, mean-reverting interventions and endogenous devaluation risk are closely interrelated. Over the period 1983–93 we analyze the degree of mean reversion in the underlying fundamental process as well as the term structure of interest rate differentials vis-à-vis Germany for six Exchange Rate Mechanism currencies. For Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands, and for Belgium after 1990 our estimates are broadly in line with the first-generation target zone model, whereas those for France and Italy are in accordance with the model that allows for endogenous devaluation risk. ( JEL F3 1, E43)     

A non-parametric regression approach to repeated measures analysis in cancer experiments

The validity conditions for univariate or multivariate analyses of repeated measures are highly sensitive to the usual assumptions. In cancer experiments, the data are frequently heteroscedastic and strongly correlated with time, and standard analyses do not perform well. Alternative non-parametric approaches can contribute to an analysis of these longitudinal data. This paper describes a method for such situations, using the results from a comparative experiment in which tumour volume is evaluated over time. First, we apply the non-parametric approach proposed by Raz in constructing a randomization Ftest for comparing treatments. A local polynomial fit is conducted to estimate the growth curves and confidence intervals for each treatment. Finally, this technique is used to estimate the velocity of tumour growth.     

Simple and effective number-of-bins circumference selectors for a histogram

Two very effective data-based procedures which are simple and fast to compute are proposed for selecting the number of bins in a histogram. The idea is to choose the number of bins that minimizes the circumference (or a bootstrap estimate of the expected circumference) of the frequency histogram. Contrary to most rules derived in the literature, our method is therefore not dependent on precise asymptotic analyses. It is shown by means of an extensive Monte-Carlo study that our selectors perform well in comparison with recently suggested selectors in the literature, for a wide range of density functions and sample sizes. The behaviour of one of the proposed rules is also illustrated on real data sets.     

Repeated electoral competition over nonlinear income tax schedules

We consider a repeated electoral competition game between two parties, each representing a constituent with a given income level. Parties are unable to commit to a policy before the election; they choose a nonlinear income tax schedule once elected. In each period, citizens cast a vote either for the incumbent or for the challenger. We first show that there exist (pure strategy) subgame perfect equilibria where both parties choose the most-preferred tax schedule of their constituent, subject to the constraint that they are reelected. We characterize a specific class of these BPR (Best Policy with Reelection) equilibria in which one of the parties plays its constituent’s unconstrained optimal tax function. Equilibrium tax schedules are always piecewise linear. Depending on the income levels of the two parties’ constituents, we obtain either classical left-vs-right equilibria (where the poor vote for one party and the rich for the other one) or ends-against-the-middle equilibria (where both poor and rich vote for one party while the middle class votes for the other party). In both types of equilibria, both parties propose the same tax schedule to a subset of the population.     

Absenteeism and peer interaction effects: Evidence from an Italian Public Institute

Using microdata for a sample of about 350 workers employed by an Italian public institute, we explain individual absence rates considering both variables that may be related to health conditions and variables that may suggest shirking behaviour. Among these variables we especially focus our attention on the influence produced by the behaviour of randomly assigned peers. In order to handle reflection problems, we combine random assignment with the use of instrumental variables. The proportion of females in the peer group is used as an instrument of peer absence behaviour. From Two-Stage Least Square estimates it emerges that social and group interaction plays an important role in shaping individual absence behaviour.     

寻求价值均衡：现代和谐宪政建构的必由之路

审视现代西方宪政制度运行所面临的诸多问题和价值冲突,本文认为,寻求政治价值的某种均衡与和谐,是现代宪政发展的必然选择。寻求政治价值均衡既是现代社会多元利益关系相互博弈的合理抉择,也有着厚实的理论基础。从政府权力运用这一维度来考察,实现政治价值均衡的路径主要是解决公共权力"有限"与政府"有为"之间的关系问题。解决权力"有限"的核心是建构多元化的、相互补充的有机控权机制;实现政府"有为"的基础是塑造有效政府,保障政府治理在实现公共性、公平性、回应性、开放性、合作性、凝聚性等方面积极有为,增进社会和谐。     

Electricity consumption prediction with functional linear regression using spline estimators

A functional linear regression model linking observations of a functional response variable with measurements of an explanatory functional variable is considered. This model serves to analyse a real data set describing electricity consumption in Sardinia. The interest lies in predicting either oncoming weekends’ or oncoming weekdays’ consumption, provided actual weekdays’ consumption is known. A B-spline estimator of the functional parameter is used. Selected computational issues are addressed as well.     

A disarmingly simple idea? Practical bottlenecks in the implementation of a universal basic income

This article considers the implementation of a universal basic income, a neglected area in basic income research. We identify and examine three important practical bottlenecks that may prevent a basic income scheme from attaining the universal reach desired and proclaimed by its advocates: i) maintaining a population‐wide cadaster of eligible claimants ensuring full takeup; ii) instituting robust modalities of payment that reach all intended beneficiaries; and iii) designing an effective oversight mechanism in a policy context that actively opposes client monitoring. We argue that the implementation of universal basic income faces unique challenges that its proponents must consider carefully.     

Performance of coefficient of variation estimators in ranked set sampling

In this paper, we propose and evaluate the performance of different parametric and nonparametric estimators for the population coefficient of variation considering Ranked Set Sampling (RSS) under normal distribution. The performance of the proposed estimators was assessed based on the bias and relative efficiency provided by a Monte Carlo simulation study. An application in anthropometric measurements data from a human population is also presented. The results showed that the proposed estimators via RSS present an expressively lower mean squared error when compared to the usual estimator, obtained via Simple Random Sampling. Also, it was verified the superiority of the maximum likelihood estimator, given the necessary assumptions of normality and perfect ranking are met.