An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 2—Hazard Modeling

Hurricane track and intensity can change rapidly in unexpected ways, thus making predictions of hurricanes and related hazards uncertain. This inherent uncertainty often translates into suboptimal decision-making outcomes, such as unnecessary evacuation. Representing this uncertainty is thus critical in evacuation planning and related activities. We describe a physics-based hazard modeling approach that (1) dynamically accounts for the physical interactions among hazard components and (2) captures hurricane evolution uncertainty using an ensemble method. This loosely coupled model system provides a framework for probabilistic water inundation and wind speed levels for a new, risk-based approach to evacuation modeling, described in a companion article in this issue. It combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) hydrologic model, and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) storm surge, tide, and wind-wave model to compute inundation levels and wind speeds for an ensemble of hurricane predictions. Perturbations to WRF's initial and boundary conditions and different model physics/parameterizations generate an ensemble of storm solutions, which are then used to drive the coupled hydrologic + hydrodynamic models. Hurricane Isabel (2003) is used as a case study to illustrate the ensemble-based approach. The inundation, river runoff, and wind hazard results are strongly dependent on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulations, which improves with decreasing lead time to hurricane landfall. The ensemble envelope brackets the observed behavior while providing “best-case” and “worst-case” scenarios for the subsequent risk-based evacuation model.     

Relational Sacrifices about Intimate Behavior and Relationship Quality for Expectant Cohabitors

ABSTRACT

Using interdependence theory, we examined how relational sacrifices specific to intimacy were associated with positive (commitment, satisfaction, love, and maintenance) and negative (ambivalence and conflict) relationship quality among expectant, unmarried cohabitors (n = 69 individuals), because this group may struggle relationally. We examined how often individuals made sacrifices for their partners and their partners’ perceived awareness of their sacrifices (i.e., individuals’ perceptions that their partners are aware that intimate sacrifices had been made for them) for both members of the couple using Actor Partner Independence Models. We controlled for children from previous relationships, unplanned pregnancy, gender, education, and race/ethnicity. Results showed that frequency of intimate sacrifices was not associated with any aspects of relationship quality. Instead, as expected, perceived partner awareness of intimate sacrifice was associated with greater commitment, satisfaction, love, and maintenance for individuals; lower ambivalence for individuals; and lower conflict for both individuals and their partners. These results suggest that for expectant cohabitors, perceived partner awareness of intimate sacrifices is central to achieving more positive, and less negative, relationship quality.     

Zanzibari Social Entrepreneurs and Poverty Alleviation Strategies: Understanding Efforts to Build Local Community Sustainability

ABSTRACT

Poverty throughout Zanzibar, Tanzania encourages social entrepreneurs to think strategically about methods of human capital development, promoting economic sustainability and asset building. Local women social entrepreneurs are successfully active in (a) building the educational opportunities for girls and low income women, (b) evolving in business to meet change and economic growth, and (c) empowering vulnerable populations and people living with disabilities. This qualitative study interviews 15 women social entrepreneurs in the rural area of Jambiani and the urban area of Stone Town. Their ventures are alleviating poverty and social workers can support these local creative initiatives in diverse ways.     

Parenting Supports for Early Vocabulary Development: Specific Effects of Sensitivity and Stimulation through Infancy

Growing recognition of disparities in early childhood language environments prompts examination of parent–child interactions, which support vocabulary. Research links parental sensitivity and cognitive stimulation to child language, but has not explicitly contrasted their effects, nor examined how effects may change over time. We examined maternal sensitivity and stimulation throughout infancy using two observational methods—ratings of parents’ interaction qualities and coding of discrete parenting behaviors—to assess the relative importance of these qualities to child vocabulary over time and determine whether mothers make related changes in response to children's development. Participants were 146 infants and mothers, assessed when infants were 14, 24, and 36 months. At 14 months, sensitivity had a stronger effect on vocabulary than did stimulation, but the effect of stimulation grew throughout toddlerhood. Mothers’ cognitive stimulation grew over time, whereas sensitivity remained stable. While discrete parenting behaviors changed with child age, there was no evidence of trade‐offs between sensitive and stimulating behaviors, and no evidence that sensitivity moderated the effect of stimulation on child vocabulary. Findings demonstrate specificity of timing in the link between parenting qualities and child vocabulary, which could inform early parent interventions, and support a reconceptualization of the nature and measurement of parental sensitivity.     

College majors and social mobility

To further our understanding of social mobility in the United States, this study examines the role of major field of study during college, and the relationships between origin characteristics and education attainment. Data, collected in 2001, consisted of information on the college and labor market experiences of 4435 alumni from 30 colleges, as well as matched ACT data on alumni background and pre-college characteristics from three cohorts of college graduates up to 25 years after college. Results indicate that both placement on and movement along the social ladder are affected by college major, and the extent to which status is awarded based on merit relative to inherited economic resources is partially dependent upon major.     

Index of Authors Volume 53, 2001

Social Indicators Research -     

Coping with Loneliness and Drug Use in Young Adults

Loneliness is generally a prevailingexperience which is particularly familiar toadolescents and young adults. It is asubjective experience which is influenced byone's personality, life experiences, andsituational variables. The present studyexamined the influence of Ecstasy (MDMA) useon the coping strategies of loneliness. The Ecstasy users were compared to Non-Ecstasy users and to a group of young adults in the general population who are non users of drugs. A total of 818 participants volunteered to answer a 34-item yes/no questionnaire, reflecting on their loneliness experiences and the ways inwhich they coped with it. The strategies which were examined included Acceptance and reflection, Self-development and understanding, Social supportnetwork, Distancing and denial, Religion andfaith and Increased activity. Resultsrevealed significant differences between thescores of the Ecstasy users and the othergroups. Gender differences between and withinthe groups were also examined.     

Adult Perceptions of Positive and Negative Infant Emotional Expressions

Adults' perceptions provide information about the emotional meaning of infant facial expressions. This study asks whether similar facial movements influence adult perceptions of emotional intensity in both infant positive (smile) and negative (cry face) facial expressions. Ninety‐five college students rated a series of naturally occurring and digitally edited images of infant facial expressions. Naturally occurring smiles and cry faces involving the co‐occurrence of greater lip movement, mouth opening, and eye constriction, were rated as expressing stronger positive and negative emotion, respectively, than expressions without these 3 features. Ratings of digitally edited expressions indicated that eye constriction contributed to higher ratings of positive emotion in smiles (i.e., in Duchenne smiles) and greater eye constriction contributed to higher ratings of negative emotion in cry faces. Stronger mouth opening contributed to higher ratings of arousal in both smiles and cry faces. These findings indicate a set of similar facial movements are linked to perceptions of greater emotional intensity, whether the movements occur in positive or negative infant emotional expressions. This proposal is discussed with reference to discrete, componential, and dynamic systems theories of emotion.