Nearly Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Under the Null Hypothesis

This paper considers nonstandard hypothesis testing problems that involve a nuisance parameter. We establish an upper bound on the weighted average power of all valid tests, and develop a numerical algorithm that determines a feasible test with power close to the bound. The approach is illustrated in six applications: inference about a linear regression coefficient when the sign of a control coefficient is known; small sample inference about the difference in means from two independent Gaussian samples from populations with potentially different variances; inference about the break date in structural break models with moderate break magnitude; predictability tests when the regressor is highly persistent; inference about an interval identified parameter; and inference about a linear regression coefficient when the necessity of a control is in doubt.     

European Federation of Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry's position on access to clinical trial data

The European Federation of Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry (EFSPI) believes access to clinical trial data should be implemented in a way that supports good research, avoids misuse of such data, lies within the scope of the original informed consent and fully protects patient confidentiality. In principle, EFSPI supports responsible data sharing. EFSPI acknowledges it is in the interest of patients that their data are handled in a strictly confidential manner to avoid misuse under all possible circumstances. It is also in the interest of the altruistic nature of patients participating in trials that such data will be used for further development of science as much as possible applying good statistical principles. This paper summarises EFSPI's position on access to clinical trial data. The position was developed during the European Medicines Agency (EMA) advisory process and before the draft EMA policy on publication and access to clinical trial data was released for consultation; however, the EFSPI's position remains unchanged following the release of the draft policy. Finally, EFSPI supports a need for further guidance to be provided on important technical aspects relating to re‐analyses and additional analyses of clinical trial data, for example, multiplicity, meta‐analysis, subgroup analyses and publication bias. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A decision-theoretic approach to variable selection in discriminant analysis

In discriminant analysis it is often desirable to find a small subset of the variables that were measured on the individuals of known origin, to be used for classifying individuals of unknown origin. In this paper a Bayesian approach to variable selection is used that includes an additional subset of variables for future classification if the additional measurement costs for this subsst are lower than the resulting reduction in expected misclassification costs.     

Hierarchical modeling with gaussian processes

We formulate a hierarchical version of the Gaussian Process model. In particular, we assume there to be data on several units randomly drawn from the same population. For each unit, several responses are available that arise from a Gaussian Process model. The parameters characterizing the Gaussian Process model for the units are modeled to arise from normal or gamma distributions. Results for two simulations are given that compare the performance of the hierarchical and non-hierarchical models.     

A BETTER ADDITIVE CONGRUENTIAL RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR?

Roger L. Burford reported on a new additive congruential random number generator in the April, 1973 issue of Decision Sciences [1]. Burford claimed a number of advantages for the new generator, including a faster generation time than the commonly used multiplicative generators. This note describes an extensive examination of the Burford generator in comparison with the standard multiplicative generators recommended by Control Data Corporation [3] and IBM [2]. The results indicate that the multiplicative generators require much less computer time than the Burford additive generator. Further, the statistical validity of the Burford generator depends upon the initial numbers chosen for use.     

The Management of Redundancies in Europe: The Case of Germany

The paper presents the findings of comparative and interdisciplinary legal and economic study on managing labour redundancies in seven EU member countries. It is structured for immediate comparability between the systems examined. The introductory section contains an account of the evolution of the German labour market, with special reference to redundancy trends, of the features of the programmes for managing redundancies, of the roles of firms and the ‘external environment’ in handling workforce adjustments. The second section presents a map of policies that work to prevent labour redundancies (preventive measures) such as flexibility, training etc. Next, the instruments for handling temporary labour redundancies (retentive measures) are examined (e.g. short-time working, temporary layoffs etc.). The following section is devoted to instruments and programmes involved in the management of permanent labour redundancies (expulsive measures), e.g. collective dismissals, severance pay etc. The final section provides an overall assessment of the German system for managing labour redundancies, and briefly discusses the national debate on the prospects for reform, in light of the principles and policies of convergence set forth by the European Commission.     

Towards a re-conceptualization of flow in social contexts

The antecedents and outcomes of individual-level flow are well documented in a large body of literature. However, flow does not only occur in isolation - quite to the contrary, recent evidence suggests that social interaction can facilitate the experience of flow. Therefore, we propose a taxonomy, which distinguishes five different flow states according to two global factors: interactional synchrony and self-other overlap. Solitary flow bears all characteristics developed by Csikszentmihalyi. Co-active flow is facilitated or hampered by the presence of other people. Private interactive flow emerges on the grounds of a minimal unidirectional interaction with more passive others; only the active subject is in flow. In shared interactive flow, a fully synchronized activity between group members takes place and all group members are in flow. In group flow, all members reach a level of complete self-other overlap with the group, which leads to a collective experience of flow on the group-level. In addition to differences and commonalities of the different types of flow, suggestions for how to induce and study social flow are discussed.