Bayesian predictive power: choice of prior and some recommendations for its use as probability of success in drug development

Bayesian predictive power, the expectation of the power function with respect to a prior distribution for the true underlying effect size, is routinely used in drug development to quantify the probability of success of a clinical trial. Choosing the prior is crucial for the properties and interpretability of Bayesian predictive power. We review recommendations on the choice of prior for Bayesian predictive power and explore its features as a function of the prior. The density of power values induced by a given prior is derived analytically and its shape characterized. We find that for a typical clinical trial scenario, this density has a u‐shape very similar, but not equal, to a β‐distribution. Alternative priors are discussed, and practical recommendations to assess the sensitivity of Bayesian predictive power to its input parameters are provided. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nature and role of customer satisfaction in the solution business

The paper focuses on the solution business. Here we argue that the strategy can only lead a company to perform better if it encompasses a direct and positive effect on satisfaction with a supplier’s consulting capabilities. Hence we introduce the concept of consulting satisfaction, identify antecedents and analyze its consequences. To do so, we apply a mixed-methods approach. Content analysis from open interviews with company professionals yields a list of antecedents of consulting satisfaction used to devise a set of hypotheses. The latter was translated into a questionnaire based measurement instrument in order to first collect and then analyze data from a larger sample survey. Since three of the antecedents could not be supported by our study, possible explanations are presented. With our approach we tap new dimensions of solutions research. First, we inaugurate research on buying behavior within the field of solutions. Second, we stress the role of capabilities in this field and extend service–profit chain thinking. And third, we present consulting satisfaction as a lever to translate the S-D logic of marketing into more practical applications. To our knowledge this is a novel insight and can help industry decision makers better prepare for the solution business.     

Noise and bias in eliciting preferences

In the context of eliciting preferences for decision making under risk, we analyse the features of four different elicitation methods—pairwise choice, willingness-to-pay, willingness-to-accept, and the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism—and estimate noise, bias and risk attitudes for two different preference functionals, Expected Utility and Rank-Dependent Expected Utility. It is well-known that methods differ in terms of the bias in the elicitation; it is rather less well-known that methods differ in terms of their noisiness. It has also been reported that risk attitudes are not stable across different elicitation methods. Our results suggest that elicited preferences should only be used in the context in which they were elicited, and the bias in the certainty-equivalent methods should be kept in mind when making predictions based on the elicited preferences. Moreover, conclusions should be moderated to take into account the various methods’ noise, which is generally lowest in the case of pairwise choice.     

Happiness inequality: Adding meaning to numbers - A reply to Veenhoven and Kalmijn

In SSR 40 (3), we proposed two new measures for happiness inequality, which have spurred a debate. With this rebuttal we disprove the arguments of our critics and demonstrate that our recommended measure, the percent-maximum standard deviation, is a valuable tool for cross-national comparative research.     

如何管理利益冲突？

由于公司丑司的不断出现，许多国家都加强了公司治理的力度，其中一个方面就是要求公司用一种正确而透明的方式来处理董事会成员们身上的利益冲突问题。     

Overcoming neoliberal globalization: social-ecological transformation from a Polanyian perspective and beyond

ABSTRACT

The ecological crisis has intensified in many respects. Prominent proposals to deal with the crisis are discussed under the header ‘sustainability transformations’ or even ‘Great Transformation’. We argue that most contributions suffer from a narrow analytical approach to transformation ignoring the largely unsustainable dynamics of global capitalism and the power relations involved in it. Thus, a ‘new critical orthodoxy’ of knowledge about transformation is emerging which runs the danger to contribute to a spatially and socially highly uneven green capitalism. This article claims that the current debate on social-ecological transformation can be enriched by a Polanyian understanding but also based on regulation theory. We distinguish between three types of transformation: incremental adaptation of the current institutional systems, institutional change in favour of a new ‘green’ phase of capitalism, and a post-capitalist great transformation that implies a profound structural change of the mode of production and living.