Improved bridge constructs for stochastic differential equations

We consider the task of generating discrete-time realisations of a nonlinear multivariate diffusion process satisfying an Itô stochastic differential equation conditional on an observation taken at a fixed future time-point. Such realisations are typically termed diffusion bridges. Since, in general, no closed form expression exists for the transition densities of the process of interest, a widely adopted solution works with the Euler–Maruyama approximation, by replacing the intractable transition densities with Gaussian approximations. However, the density of the conditioned discrete-time process remains intractable, necessitating the use of computationally intensive methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. Designing an efficient proposal mechanism which can be applied to a noisy and partially observed system that exhibits nonlinear dynamics is a challenging problem, and is the focus of this paper. By partitioning the process into two parts, one that accounts for nonlinear dynamics in a deterministic way, and another as a residual stochastic process, we develop a class of novel constructs that bridge the residual process via a linear approximation. In addition, we adapt a recently proposed construct to a partial and noisy observation regime. We compare the performance of each new construct with a number of existing approaches, using three applications.     

Meta-Analyses of the Intra- and Interpersonal Outcomes of Interpersonal Coordination

Interpersonal coordination, the extent to which social partners coordinate each other’s postures and mannerisms, acts as a “social glue” that serves both individual and social goals, such as producing prosocial behaviors and facilitating harmonious interactions. Research in this area has become prominent in a variety of domains both within and outside of psychology, forming a sizeable literature dedicated to investigating the causes and consequences of interpersonal coordination. We conducted a series of meta-analyses on studies that treated interpersonal coordination as an independent variable, in order to measure its effect on several intrapersonal (e.g., mood, need to belong) and interpersonal (e.g., prosocial behavior) outcomes, as well as several potential moderators (e.g., percentage of female participants) that may affect the strength of the effect. Overall, the results demonstrated that the positive effects of interpersonal coordination are robust, with a few exceptions specific to intrapersonal outcomes. These findings provide a much-needed quantitative summary of the literature on interpersonal coordination, and highlight areas that merit future research.     

Der Körper als Ressource in individuellen Veränderungsprozessen

Nowadays the focus on the rational mind dominates big parts of our society. The body and emotions as helpful information are underestimated. The integration and systematical utilization of body based information in coaching processes is an adjuvant approach. This article reports the neurophysiological and -biological basis of behavioural patterns and outlines how to change these patterns applying different methods which use body based information. An example case illustrates the practical implication of the referred theories.     

Long memory estimation for complex-valued time series

Statistics and Computing - Long memory has been observed for time series across a multitude of fields, and the accurate estimation of such dependence, for example via the Hurst exponent, is crucial...     

The effect of natural disaster on fertility,birth spacing,and child sex ratio: evidence from a major earthquake in India

Natural disasters can lead to significant changes in health, economic, and demographic outcomes. However, the demographic effects of earthquakes have been studied only to a limited degree. This paper examines the effect of the 2001 Gujarat earthquake on reproductive outcomes. This earthquake killed more than 20,000 people; injured 167,000; and caused massive losses to property and civic assets. Using data from two large-scale District-Level Household Surveys (2002–2004 and 2007–2008), we employ difference-in-difference and fixed-effect regression models to compare the outcomes across earthquake-affected districts and their neighboring districts during 5 years before and after the earthquake. We find that the earthquake led to significant rises in childbirth rates. It also reduced birth spacing among uneducated, tribal, and Muslim women, and the incidence of male births among rural women. We find considerable variation in the demographic effects of the earthquake across location, household socioeconomic status, and parental age and education.     

Fear,Defensive Strategies and Caring for Cognitively Impaired Family Members

One topic rarely addressed in the literature on older adults and interpersonal violence is the violence that can be experienced by family carers in relationship with a person living with cognitive impairment. This violence tends to remain hidden and is rarely framed as intimate partner violence. We examine how situations of intimidation and violence invoked fear in family carers and how they interpreted and reacted to these circum- stances. Interview and diary data were collected from family members who had previously or were currently experiencing some form of aggression in caring for someone with cognitive impairment or dementia. Drawing on discussions of fear and applying the analytic lens of defensive strategies, we explore how these carers responded to situations of intimidation and violence.     

Using a “child's‐eye view” of social success to understand the importance of school readiness at the transition to formal schooling

Recent research into school readiness has highlighted the importance of not only children's cognitive and socio‐emotional skills, but also the degree to which they have family support in the home. The current study examines the association between social success upon school entry and teacher‐ratings of school readiness as assessed by the Brief Early Skills and Support Index (BESSI), controlling for language ability. Importantly, social success was assessed using a “child's‐eye view” with peer‐reported assessments of both social preference and reciprocated friendships. A total of 244 children (131 boys, M_age = 61 months, SD = 4.78 months) in their first year of formal schooling participated. Child school readiness was found to be important for social preference, with the association being more marked for boys versus girls. Family support was the only independent predictor of children's reciprocated friendships. The use of the BESSI, with its broad scope compared to other measures of school readiness, highlights the importance of focusing both on a child's cognitive and socio‐emotional skills at school entry and their family support when exploring the association of school readiness to children's social success at the transition to formal schooling.     

Working Adults and Personal Business Ethics in South East Asia: a Comparative Study in Thailand and Vietnam

Global leaders and managers have been facing new challenges in the twenty-first century since globalization has created a much more integrated and borderless business environment. One of the key issues that they constantly deal with is business ethics. The global economy has made ethical issues become more complex and challenging. Businesses nowadays face urgent demands to act ethically and responsibly. In order for global leaders and managers to manage such a cultural diverse and complex workforce, they must have the ability to understand these complex issues and act ethically. They also need to possess adequate leadership skills to lead an ethical organization in a multinational environment. Thus, understanding and recognizing the cultural differences as well as the ethical standards of people in different countries are critical to the success of global leaders and managers. The purpose of this study is to investigate the perception of working professionals on business ethics in the two high-context cultures in South East Asia: Thailand and Vietnam. Using the Univariate Analysis of Variance method and adopting the widely-used Clark and Clark’s Personal Business Ethics Scores (PBES) measure, this study will compare the level of ethical maturity of the respondents based on a variety of variables including gender, business law course taken, code of conduct, ethics training, and government work experience. The authors will provide a thorough literature review on business ethics as well as the current ethical issues, i.e., bribery and corruption, in the two countries, together with practical suggestions and implications for educators, managers, and employees.     

What innovation managers really do: a multiple-case investigation into the informal role profiles of innovation managers

Over the last fifteen years companies tended to formalise their innovation management activities and to establish formal jobs like the innovation officer, the network manager or the innovation manager. Knowledge of the informal role profiles of these formal roles is still rare. HR and R&D Managers do not know which informal role profile might suit them best, thus having difficulties to assign the best candidates for jobs in innovation management. Researchers cannot help to resolve the problem. Our research answers the question what innovation managers really do, by analysing their tasks, skills and traits, theoretically based on informal role theories. Furthermore, we will analyse how these characteristics change with company size. To provide answers to our research questions we choose a multiple-case study approach. We found, among others, that innovation managers fulfil the role of the relationship and process promotor or a combination of both with the champion, but we also found, that the innovation manager’s roles profile becomes fuzzier with shrinking company size. Our results have practical implications for top management and also HR and R&D managers, enabling them to better select and steer employees in innovation management. Researchers will be able to build on our results because we offer a comprehensive understanding of the informal role profiles of innovation managers based on informal role theories.