Aging in the Third World

The relationships between the generations in Third World countries are changing as migration and industrialization erode traditional family responsibilities for supporting the elderly. It is no longer possible to assume that, as a matter of course, old people will be looked after by their families. Social change leads to an eroding of the support systems. The author finds growing evidence of this breakdown in Asia, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, and other highly industrialized centers. Singapore, for example, has reinstituted the compulsory study of filial piety in an attempt to push the younger generation into assuming its traditional responsibility toward the old. There has also been a significant decline in the status, prestige, and support given old people in Indonesia, although politicans insist that the family will always take care of its elderly. 2 reasons for this breakdown are 1) the impact of the mass media and 2) the increasing involvement of the younger generation in non-agricultural jobs which often involve a move to the city and away from dependence on a patriarch. Many Third World countries are in a twilight stage, between the traditionally strong structure of family support and government systems of social security.     

A macroeconomic potential describing structural change of the economy

For the purpose of describing change in an economy's structure, and addressing issues of transformation, the notion of a time-dependent macroeconomic potential function is introduced. It penalizes deviations from equilibrium (entrepreneurial error) and induces moves toward equilibrium. Thus, from the concept of a potential function is derived the concept of short-term and long-term change forces. We focus here on the long-term structural changes of an economy as distinct from short-term cyclical variations, and we represent economic transformations as phase-transitions between monostable and ambiguous bistable states of the economy. One important feature of the potential function approach is that the parameter of the potential can be determined from empirical data. In particular, the parameters can be regressed for input variables. Hence, a relationship has been established between the structural change force and a set of input variables, some of which are controlled in part by either public or private sector agents. The method has been applied to West German and United States industry data for 1950–1980.     

The determinants of international creditworthiness and their policy implications

The present paper utilizes an empirical measure of creditworthiness based on bankers' perceptions to estimate the effect of various variables hypothesized to influence assessments of countries' debt-servicing capacity. The data pertain to a cross section of countries within the period 1979–1983. Such estimates necessarily employ a ceteris paribus assumption, which prevents a realistic assessment of the effects generated by policy changes. The second part of the paper develops, therefore, a dynamic simulation model of a hypothetical average economy. The simulations allow analysis of changes in macroeconomic variables and creditworthiness over time within a system that maintains accounting identities and behavioral constraints. Several changes in policy variables are considered that highlight the importance of export expansion. The latter is, of course, an often suggested policy objective, but the present paper demonstrates its effectiveness in terms of a somewhat nonstandard criterion.     

Survey of Voluntary Recreation Workers in New South Wales

Two surveys were conducted of volunteers working for recreation organizations in four New South Wales regions. The results highlight the dependence of these organizations on volunteers. Volunteers were found to be heavily engaged in instructing and organizing recreation activities. Few have any specific training for the role although further training is frequently considered desirable by respondents. Many respondents indicated that the government could assist voluntary work by providing— ? training at the local level, ? general financial assistance, and ? subsidies for equipment and facilities. Generally, responses indicate that the government should play a supportive rather than controlling role in recreation.     

Obstacles to involving children and young people in foster care research

ABSTRACT Despite increasing recognition of the importance of including the perspectives of children and young people in care in alternative care research, in practice this is not always a straightforward matter. This paper describes the recruitment of disruptive young people in care under the jurisdiction of the South Australian statutory authority to three studies on placement instability. Non‐response rates of 72.5% and 82% are reported. A large number of subjects were excluded because agency social workers did not cooperate with the project, and more subjects were excluded for reasons which suggest high levels of distress in this population. The dilemma of providing a voice to distressed subjects when distressed subjects are excluded from research is discussed, and the appointment of an independent representative for children in care to review research proposals and to negotiate research access to children is proposed.     

灾后的心理社会需求

个人对于各种紧急情况的反应源自两个方面 :一是个人的因素 ,这与其家庭内部的互动有关 ,即家庭对灾害的准备 ;二是民族或文化因素 ,它们决定着个人所在的社区对灾害的准备。灾害的心理社会方面 :灾前个人因素个人心理决定着他对于危机和灾害的反应。家庭中决定个人心理社会行为的因素有 :家族精神病史 ;幼年期的精神创伤和行为异常 ;贫困 ;神经过敏、内向性格、特殊的恐惧 ;生活压力 ;身为女性。灾害的心理社会方面 :灾前民族或文化因素与个人生活的社区和地区背景有关的民族和文化因素决定着个人对灾害的准备。此类因素包括 :应对问题的仪…     

Condorcet's paradox and the likelihood of its occurrence: different perspectives on balanced preferences*

Many studies have considered the probability that a pairwise majority rule (PMR) winner exists for three candidate elections. The absence of a PMR winner indicates an occurrence of Condorcet's Paradox for three candidate elections. This paper summarizes work that has been done in this area with the assumptions of: Impartial Culture, Impartial Anonymous Culture, Maximal Culture, Dual Culture and Uniform Culture. Results are included for the likelihood that there is a strong winner by PMR, a weak winner by PMR, and the probability that a specific candidate is among the winners by PMR. Closed form representations are developed for some of these probabilities for Impartial Anonymous Culture and for Maximal Culture. Consistent results are obtained for all cultures. In particular, very different behaviors are observed for odd and even numbers of voters. The limiting probabilities as the number of voters increases are reached very quickly for odd numbers of voters, and quite slowly for even numbers of voters. The greatest likelihood of observing Condorcet's Paradox typically occurs for small numbers of voters. Results suggest that while examples of Condorcet's Paradox are observed, one should not expect to observe them with great frequency in three candidate elections.     

The price of risk with incomplete knowledge on the utility function*

When a risk is exchanged, the exact value for the minimum price (positive or negative) that the purchaser (investor, or insurer) is willing to pay is given by the certainty equivalent wealth level, which in turn depends on his specific utility function. When this utility function is unknown, then only a sufficient condition on the price can ever be found. This paper provides methods for calculating such a sufficient condition, when only limited information on the utility function is known.