Salinization of the Bangladesh Delta worsens economic precarity

Population and Environment - Anthropogenic environmental changes are having complex effects on all aspects of the hydrological cycle. In estuarine areas, these factors are coalescing...     

Advances on a Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure-Based Chemical Prioritization

The volume and variety of manufactured chemicals is increasing, although little is known about the risks associated with the frequency and extent of human exposure to most chemicals. The EPA and the recent signing of the Lautenberg Act have both signaled the need for high-throughput methods to characterize and screen chemicals based on exposure potential, such that more comprehensive toxicity research can be informed. Prior work of Mitchell et al. using multicriteria decision analysis tools to prioritize chemicals for further research is enhanced here, resulting in a high-level chemical prioritization tool for risk-based screening. Reliable exposure information is a key gap in currently available engineering analytics to support predictive environmental and health risk assessments. An elicitation with 32 experts informed relative prioritization of risks from chemical properties and human use factors, and the values for each chemical associated with each metric were approximated with data from EPA's CP_CAT database. Three different versions of the model were evaluated using distinct weight profiles, resulting in three different ranked chemical prioritizations with only a small degree of variation across weight profiles. Future work will aim to include greater input from human factors experts and better define qualitative metrics.     

Women's perceptions of the effects of menopause and hormone replacement therapy on skin

Although women frequently associate skin issues with menopause and hormone replacement therapy (HRT), little work has been done to investigate a possible relationship. A questionnaire was given to women attending a specialist menopause clinic; 87 women responded. Skin problems generally were common, with over 64% of respondents reporting past problems. Around half felt that the menopause had resulted in skin changes; dry skin was the predominant complaint at this stage. However, use of HRT in the short term did not result in any conclusive trends in skin condition in the majority of users.     

Work orders: Analysing employment histories using sequence data

The analysis of employment histories has been facilitated recently by advances in survey methodology, statistical processes and computing power. While much work has focused on transitions between states and time spent in one state, the potential of analysing a series of states (i.e. careers) has largely been ignored. A concentration on movement between two states, whilst allowing relevant contextual covariates to be controlled for, often ignores valuable data both prior to and after the episode in question. Analysis of extended sequences of employment states is better able to describe employment trajectories. Furthermore, comparison of sequences permits either allocation to theoretical categories, or the identification of latent groupings using cluster analysis. The resulting typology of careers can then be used in inferentially based analyses. This paper explores sequence analysis using Optimal Matching Analysis (OMA). OMA is explained in relation to one broad substantive issue: the relationship between employment trajectories and gender.     

Matsumoto and Ekman's Japanese and Caucasian Facial Expressions of Emotion (JACFEE): Reliability Data and Cross-National Differences

Substantial research has documented the universality of several emotional expressions. However, recent findings have demonstrated cultural differences in level of recognition and ratings of intensity. When testing cultural differences, stimulus sets must meet certain requirements. Matsumoto and Ekman's Japanese and Caucasian Facial Expressions of Emotion (JACFEE) is the only set that meets these requirements. The purpose of this study was to obtain judgment reliability data on the JACFEE, and to test for possible cross-national differences in judgments as well. Subjects from Hungary, Japan, Poland, Sumatra, United States, and Vietnam viewed the complete JACFEE photo set and judged which emotions were portrayed in the photos and rated the intensity of those expressions. Results revealed high agreement across countries in identifying the emotions portrayed in the photos, demonstrating the reliability of the JACFEE. Despite high agreement, cross-national differences were found in the exact level of agreement for photos of anger, contempt, disgust, fear, sadness, and surprise. Cross-national differences were also found in the level of intensity attributed to the photos. No systematic variation due to either preceding emotion or presentation order of the JACFEE was found. Also, we found that grouping the countries into a Western/Non-Western dichotomy was not justified according to the data. Instead, the cross-national differences are discussed in terms of possible sociopsychological variables that influence emotion judgments.     

NEWS MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS: The Case of Pesticides after Silent Spring

The 1962 publication of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring vaulted pesticide risks to a prominent place on the media agenda. This article reports on a study of the relative weight of attention given by the New York Times to alarming or reassuring messages about pesticides in the immediate aftermath of Silent Spring . Theoretically, it uses a combination of inductive and deductive approaches to explain the empirical findings. Three models of media coverage are examined: conflict theory, sensationalism, and problem frame. These models are employed chronologically as analysis revealed a complicated pattern of coverage which first highlighted, then downplayed, risk.     

The Bayesian choice of crop variety and fertilizer dose

Recent contributions to the theory of optimizing fertilizer doses in agricultural crop production have introduced Bayesian ideas to incorporate information on crop yield from several environments and on soil nutrients from a soil test, but they have not used a fully Bayesian formulation. We present such a formulation and demonstrate how the resulting Bayes decision procedure can be evaluated in practice by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The approach incorporates expert knowledge of the crop and of regional and local soil conditions and allows a choice of crop variety as well as of fertilizer level. Alternative dose–response functions are expressed in terms of a common interpretable set of parameters to facilitate model comparisons and the specification of prior distributions. The approach is illustrated with a set of yield data from spring barley nitrogen–response trials and is found to be robust to changes in the dose–response function and the prior distribution for indigenous soil nitrogen.