A Characterization for the Spherical Scoring Rule

Strictly proper scoring rules have been studied widely in statistical decision theory and recently in experimental economics because of their ability to encourage assessors to honestly provide their true subjective probabilities. In this article, we study the spherical scoring rule by analytically examining some of its properties and providing some new geometric interpretations for this rule. Moreover, we state a theorem which provides an axiomatic characterization for the spherical scoring rule. The objective of this analysis is to provide a better understanding of one of the most commonly available scoring rules, which could aid decision makers in the selection of an appropriate tool for evaluating and assessing probabilistic forecasts.      

Collaborative concept development using supplier competitions: Insights from the automotive industry

Firms may seek to collaborate with skilled suppliers not only to access existing technologies but also to jointly develop new concepts. We sought to examine the details of collaborative concept development through matched cases of novel convertible roof projects in the European automotive industry. The result is a three phase model marked by the use of supplier concept competitions to probe possible features and by the selective maintenance of distance to suppliers. Knowledge transfer and integration practices, differences depending on initial experience, and implications for managing such distributed systems of innovation are highlighted.     

Reasoning With Case Studies: Issues Of An Aging Workforce

Case studies are an ideal research approach to generate in-depth and contextualized data. Many specific data collection approaches can be incorporated to gather data through a case study, but the information so gathered is interpreted in terms of a single case. When a set of case studies is conducted on a particular research theme, the question arises as to what kinds of inferences can be made with a small number of cases. Problems of inference are increased when the cases have been selected opportunistically or haphazardly and when the universe of all potential cases cannot readily be defined. Charles Ragin has distinguished between the logic of multivariate analysis and the logic of comparative case analysis. Drawing on this distinction, this article will describe the ways in which inferences can be drawn, and the nature of such inferences, from a multiple case study approach. Reasoning from multiple case studies is an inductive process that uses comparisons to generate hypotheses and to provide limited tests through the principle of falsification. This approach was used in developing a synthesizing report based on seven large case studies from the project, “Issues of an Aging Workforce.” Five Canadian and two American case studies were conducted in corporate settings in different economic sectors. The case studies used qualitative methods (focus groups and key informant interviews) and survey data from employees and managers. Thus, the logic of multivariate analysis was used, along with inductive reasoning with qualitative data, within cases, and a logic of comparative case analysis when seeking to make and test generalizations based on the set of seven cases.     

Male Migration,Women Left Behind,and Sexually Transmitted Diseases in Armenia

The effect of male circular labor migration on risks of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) among women left behind has not been well studied. Our study examines this effect using data from a survey of 1,240 married women in rural Armenia, where international male labor migration has traditionally been very common. A multivariate comparison of women married to migrants and women married to non-migrants finds that the former, ceteris paribus, reported more STD symptoms, on average, and were more likely to report diagnosed STDs than the latter. However, in the case of STD symptoms, this effect is moderated by household income, as the predicted number of STD symptoms reported by migrants’ wives increases as income rises. The findings illustrate the complex tradeoffs that migration entails for left-behind women and are interpreted in the context of the literature on gender, migration, and STDs.     

Varicella immunization requirements for US colleges: 2014–2015 academic year

ABSTRACT

Objective: To obtain information on varicella prematriculation requirements in US colleges for undergraduate students during the 2014–2015 academic year. Participants: Health care professionals and member schools of the American College Health Association (ACHA). Methods: An electronic survey was sent to ACHA members regarding school characteristics and whether schools had policies in place requiring that students show proof of 2 doses of varicella vaccination for school attendance. Results: Only 27% (101/370) of schools had a varicella prematriculation requirement for undergraduate students. Only 68% of schools always enforced this requirement. Private schools, 4-year schools, northeastern schools, those with <5,000 students, and schools located in a state with a 2-dose varicella vaccine mandate were significantly more likely to have a varicella prematriculation requirement. Conclusions: A small proportion of US colleges have a varicella prematriculation requirement for varicella immunity. College vaccination requirements are an important tool for controlling varicella in these settings.     

Orgasmic latency and subjective ratings of erotic stimuli in male and female subjects

There are few ways in which comparable measures of sexual arousal may be obtained from males and females. Because latency to orgasm is an objective measure that is equivalent for both sexes, it may be a useful dependent variable for the investigation of response patterns and differences in men and women. To explore this possibility 24 men and 18 women participated in experimental sessions during which they masturbated to orgasm while viewing sexually explicit films and then rated the film for its arousal value. Male orgasmic latency was not significantly different across rating categories, whereas female research participants showed a significant quadratic trend in which films perceived as being average in arousal quality resulted in the longest latencies. Possible reasons for this sex difference are discussed, and it is suggested that using latency to orgasm as the dependent variable may be a valuable technique in researching sex differences in response to psychosexual stimulation.     

Aging in Asia: A cultural,socio-economical and historical perspective

Asia has about 60% of the world population and population aging is occurring more rapidly in Asia than in Western countries. The group aged 65 years and above will increase from 207 million in 2000 to 857 million in 2050, a staggering increase of 314%. The diversity in economic, demographic, religious, cultural and geo-political factors in Asia is unparalleled by any other continent, and is, in part, contributory to the rapid rise in population aging. By 2050, those under 15 years old will have shrunk from 30% in 2000 to 19%, while those aged 65 years and above will increase from 6% to 18%. In addition, the gender divide still persists with 100 elderly women to 70 elderly men. These projected demographic changes pose three major challenges: 1) how best to address the rising population of the group aged 65 years and above, 2) how to address the shrinking population of the young as well as the working adults, and 3) how to address the problems arising from the disproportionate increase in older women than men. From now to 2050, it will be expeditious for each country in Asia to look into ways of reversing the decline in total fertility rates (TFRs) and restore to replacement levels. If not, at least introduce measures to halt its free fall. Due to the complexity of factors that have influenced the fall in TFRs in Asia, it will be a daunting task to reverse this fall. There is no “single size fits all” solution to this complex problem. Research work in this short-term strategy in addressing the aging population is urgent. In the longer term, the East-West Centre have suggested four modalities, 1) establish policies and programmes that enhance traditional Asian systems of family support for the elderly; 2) introduce policy reform that encourages the elderly who are still capable of remaining in the work force; 3) create institutions and systems that support high levels of personal saving; and 4) formulate public programmes, including pension schemes and national healthcare systems. We need to work while there is time.     

Economic fortunes, ethnic divides, and marriage and fertility in Central Asia: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan compared

Declining marriage and fertility rates following the collapse of state socialism have been the subject of numerous studies in Central and Eastern Europe. More recent literature has focused on marriage and fertility dynamics in the period of post-crisis political stabilization and economic growth. However, relatively little research on marriage and fertility has dealt with the Central Asian part of the post-socialist world. We use survey and published data from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, two multiethnic countries with differing paths of post-crisis recovery, to examine overall and ethnic-specific trends in entry into marriage and fertility. We find that in both countries rates of entry into marriage continued to decline throughout post-crisis years. By contrast, fertility rose, and this rise was greater in the more prosperous Kazakhstan. However, we also detect considerable ethnic variations in fertility trends which we situate within the ethnopolitical and ethnodemographic contexts of both countries.