Mortality by cause in the USSR in 1970–1987: the reconstruction of time series

This paper is the first step in an exploration of Soviet cause-of-death statistics which became accessible after 1986. Its main aim is the reconstruction of consistent annual series for the period 1970–1987 in spite of changes in cause-of-death classification caused by the 1980 revision of the Soviet nosological system. In a second part, the series thus reconstructed are analysed to describe the main features of the evolution of mortality during these two decades, using first standardized mortality rates for several very important specific causes and, second, using a method of decomposition of life expectancy changes. For the first time, trends in causes of death are thus shown for the crucial period where life expectancy has grown again after two decades of regression.Cet article constitue la première étape d'une exploration des statistiques soviétiques de décès par cause, devenues disponibles à partir de 1986. Il a pour principal objectif la reconstruction de séries annuelles cohérentes pour la période 1970–1987, en traitant les ruptures introduites par la révision de la Classification soviétique de 1980. La méthode utilisée pour ce faire est exposée dans la première partie. Dans une deuxième partie, les résultats ainsi obtenus permettent de décrire les grands traits de l'évolution de la mortalité au cours de ces deux décennies, d'abord sur la base de taux comparatifs de mortalité pour des causes spécifiques, puis grâce à une décomposition des variations de l'espérance de vie. Pour la première fois on peut ainsi suivre l'évolution des causes de décès dans une période déterminante au cours de laquelle, après deux décennies de recul, les progrès de l'espérance de vie ont repris.     

A Hierarchical Process of Applicant Screening by Korean Employers

Korean employers screen job applicants’ detailed personal backgrounds with the intent to discriminate among them. This study develops a statistical model of employers’ problem in recruiting, and identifies a hierarchical process whereby employers screen applicants’ personal characteristics in the diminishing order of their incremental predictive power or increasing order of their cost. Recognizing that benefit of marginal screening depends on information obtained through inframarginal screening, this study evaluates different elements of screening jointly using conditional count-variable and probability models, in a sample of job application forms of 365 firms. Firms are found to screen applicants systematically, according to the information content versus intrusiveness of marginal factors screened—from applicants’ appearance, through lifestyle and background, to detailed health and financial status. Companies’ working conditions, labor costs and labor-organization rate help explain the extent of companies’ screening. Working hours and mandatory compensation in the relevant market are associated positively, and bonuses and discretionary benefits negatively with the extent of screening, agreeing with theoretical predictions. Worker unionization is associated positively with screening, suggesting that unions may be protecting their membership at the cost of harming non-members and propping up firms’ traditional practices. Results for the occurrence of individual screening questions are also reported.     

Robust multi-sensor scheduling for multi-site surveillance

This paper presents mathematical programming techniques for solving a class of multi-sensor scheduling problems. Robust optimization problems are formulated for both deterministic and stochastic cases using linear 0–1 programming techniques. Equivalent formulations are developed in terms of cardinality constraints. We conducted numerical case studies and analyzed the performance of optimization solvers on the considered problem instances.     

Signed Roman domination in graphs

In this paper we continue the study of Roman dominating functions in graphs. A signed Roman dominating function (SRDF) on a graph G=(V,E) is a function f:V→{?1,1,2} satisfying the conditions that (i) the sum of its function values over any closed neighborhood is at least one and (ii) for every vertex u for which f(u)=?1 is adjacent to at least one vertex v for which f(v)=2. The weight of a SRDF is the sum of its function values over all vertices. The signed Roman domination number of G is the minimum weight of a SRDF in G. We present various lower and upper bounds on the signed Roman domination number of a graph. Let G be a graph of order n and size m with no isolated vertex. We show that $\gamma _{\mathrm{sR}}(G) \ge\frac{3}{\sqrt{2}} \sqrt{n} - n$ and that γ _sR(G)≥(3n?4m)/2. In both cases, we characterize the graphs achieving equality in these bounds. If G is a bipartite graph of order n, then we show that $\gamma_{\mathrm{sR}}(G) \ge3\sqrt{n+1} - n - 3$ , and we characterize the extremal graphs.     

On a statistical approach to choice under uncertainty

This article is concerned with criteria of choice under uncertainty which are based on long sequences of independent experiments. To state a rule of comparison for such sequences, we first specify it for sequences of certain numbers (say, of certain incomes). Eventually, the problem is reduced to a connection between preferences on sequences ofcertain numbers and thoseon probability distributions. We take into consideration a notion of statistically stable criteria for which choice based on a single random experiment does not disagree with that based on a “sufficiently long” sequence of independent replicas of the same experiment. The main aim of the article is to establish conditions under which a statistically stable criterion exists and to give its explicit representation.     

The Recent Mortality Decline in Russia: Beginning of the Cardiovascular Revolution?

The health situation in Russia has often been characterized as a long‐running crisis. From the 1960s until the beginning of the 2000s, the declining life expectancy trend was substantially interrupted only twice: once in the mid‐1980s as a result of Gorbachev's anti‐alcohol campaign, and again at the end of the 1990s as a result of the “rebound” effect following the dramatic rise in mortality associated with the acute socioeconomic crisis. In both cases, the progress made proved to be short‐lived. A third mortality decline in Russia began in 2003 and is still ongoing. We investigate the components and driving forces of this new development, in particular the role played by cardiovascular diseases. Using cause‐specific mortality data, we identify the main features of the recent improvements and compare these features with those observed in selected European countries, specifically France, Poland, and Estonia. Our aim is to gauge whether the features of the improvements in these countries are similar to those of the recent advancements made in Russia. Although the recent improvements in Russia have features in common with initial stages of prior mortality declines in other countries and may support optimism about the future, a return to mortality stagnation cannot be ruled out.     

The Influence of the Internet on Active Social Involvement and the Formation and Development of Identities

The changing nature of personal identity in Russia during recent decades shows stability in identity influenced by close social relations and marked changes in relation to more remote factors. The Internet's anonymity contributes to changes in identity.     

MAXIMUM PRINCIPLE FOR AGE AND DURATION STRUCTURED SYSTEMS: A TOOL FOR OPTIMAL PREVENTION AND TREATMENT OF HIV

Age and duration since infection are considered in a model of optimal control of the spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in countries with high prevalence. Prevention and medical treatment are selected so as to maximize an economic objective function.The model extends the classical McKendrick equation. Necessary optimality conditions in the form of Pontryagin's global maximum principle and numerical solution based on them are presented. “Critical” initial prevalence is established numerically for which there are two optimal medical treatments: one intense and another less demanding. It is shown that treatment alone can be counterproductive: increase in treatment must be accompanied by increase in prevention.     

A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation

Mortality estimates for many populations are derived using model life tables, which describe typical age patterns of human mortality. We propose a new system of model life tables as a means of improving the quality and transparency of such estimates. A flexible two-dimensional model was fitted to a collection of life tables from the Human Mortality Database. The model can be used to estimate full life tables given one or two pieces of information: child mortality only, or child and adult mortality. Using life tables from a variety of sources, we have compared the performance of new and old methods. The new model outperforms the Coale-Demeny and UN model life tables. Estimation errors are similar to those produced by the modified Brass logit procedure. The proposed model is better suited to the practical needs of mortality estimation, since both input parameters are continuous yet the second one is optional.