Risk Management and the Wisdom of Aldo Leopold

Human demands on nature have increased due to our burgeoning population. The applications of scientific knowledge to the development of increasingly powerful technologies and consumptive lifestyles by more and more people have created a modern category of human‐caused disaster—stealth disasters. Stealth disasters—such as agriculturally‐induced soil erosion and release of unprecedented amounts of greenhouse gases into Earth's atmosphere—tend to have protracted, unobvious onsets; do not necessarily have dramatic manifestations; and often do not attract public attention until they reach a stage approaching catastrophic consequences. At this late stage it is difficult or impossible to undo damage. Scientists tend to be among the first to understand the physical causes and notice the developments of stealth disasters and their risks and yet scientific knowledge is not enough to prevent or mitigate them. As we search for ways to deal with stealth disasters, the concept of “land health” assembled by the prominent conservationist and author, Aldo Leopold (1887–1948), can, in normative terms, provide an ecologically grounded example of nature in good condition toward which society can aim. Evidence of the reverse—symptoms of land illness—can provide a checklist for risk analysis and management that helps guide people away from harm‐causing attitudes and activities and toward beneficial outcomes. Leopold's criteria of land health motivated by a land ethic that incorporates the whole of nature may be applied at geographic scales ranging from local to global as a framework for contemporary risk management.     

The Impact of Logistics Performance on Trade

This paper studies the impact of logistics performance on global bilateral trade. Taking a supply chain perspective, logistics performance refers to cost, time, and complexity in accomplishing import and export activities. We draw on a data set compiled by the World Bank containing specific quantitative metrics of logistics performance in terms of time, cost, and variability in time. Numerous researchers have shown that logistics performance is statistically significantly related to the volume of bilateral trade. Our research calibrates the impact of specific improvements in logistics performance (time, cost, and reliability) on increased trade. Our findings can spur public and private agencies that have direct or indirect influence over logistics performance to focus attention on altering the most relevant aspects of logistics performance to improve their country's ability to compete in today's global economy. Moreover, as our logistics metrics are directly related to operational performance, countries can use these metrics to target actions to improve logistics and monitor their progress.     

A statistical framework for strategic decision making with AHP: Probability assessment and Bayesian revision

A probability assessment framework is outlined for an organizational decision involving a conditioning event (CE). The decision may, for example, involve a new-product launch (strategic decision) dependent on the outcome of market research (CE). The framework illustrates how Bayesian revision could be employed as related “news” arrives intermittently to revise current probabilities prior to decision implementation. A unique contribution of this paper is its utilization of the analytic hierarchy process to ascertain a set of consistent and coherent probabilities for the event/sample spaces at all stages of the decision process.     

Appraising a Dichotomy: A Review of ‘Part-time/Full-time’ in the Study of Women's Employment in Britain

A key theme in women's studies is the move away from an over-reliance on treating the sexes as two separate groups onto theorizing diversity amongst women. The limitations of a ‘sexual dichotomism’ in the face of diversity is well-recognized, yet in mainstream research into women's experiences diversity is far from being a popular area of study. The tendency in the literature on women's employment is still to oversimplify any divisions into broad groupings, and in particular into dichotomies. Focusing on the popular dichotomy of part-time/full-time employment, the paper highlights two roles that the dichotomy has been expected to perform. The success it has achieved and the problems it has faced in performing these two roles are examined. The conclusion is that whilst the part-time/full-time dichotomy is particularly valuable in depicting two differentiated labour market positions, a move beyond the dichotomy would facilitate a greater understanding of the variations in women's employment experiences over the life-course. The theoretical progression from dichotomizing to disaggregation is ready to happen in the field of women's employment.     

The State of Indian Exorcism: Violence and Racial Formation in Eastern Brazil

As in various parts of the Western Hemisphere, the indigenous population of eastern Brazil has increased rapidly in recent decades. Based on over fifty in-depth interviews that I conducted with eastern Indians and the twelve months I spent living in their households and communities between 1994 and 1997, I discovered that much of this demographic phenomenon has been fueled by increasing numbers of individuals self-identifying as Indian who had not always identified as such or their parents had not identified as Indian. A number of lay people and scholars have argued that this shift in the direction of racial formation has been driven by state induced material incentives. Yet my ethnographic data, which I detail in great depth in this article, suggests that in terms of the material factors responsible for Indian resurgence that the state's sticks have been a much more significant variable than the state's racializing carrots. In other words, I found that the fundamental change in state practices in eastern Brazil has been in the drastic reduction of the costs of being Indian. Thus I posit and demonstrate how one of the primary variables behind this demographic shift has been the reduction of state led and sanctioned anti-Indian violence in eastern Brazil.     

Preconception Motivation and Pregnancy Wantedness: Pathways to Toddler Attachment Security

This research was designed to increase our understanding of how the motivational antecedents to childbearing and emotional responses to pregnancy affect the subsequent attachment bond of a toddler to his or her mother. Using a sample of 1,364 mothers and their newborns from the Study of Early Child Care, we tested a mother‐child influence framework hypothesized to mediate between the mother's preconception motivation and pregnancy wantedness and her child's security of attachment at 24 months. Almost all elements of the mediational sequence were confirmed in a structural equation model. We observed 2 unmediated pathways to attachment security, 1 from preconception motivation and 1 from parenting stress during infancy, and suggest interpretations of these unexpected pathways.     

Innovative Social Policies: Implications for Work–life Balance among Low‐waged Women in England

We investigated innovative social policies drawn from the European arena — universal systems of childcare, a shorter working week and shared parental leave — asking about their relevance to the work–life balance of low‐waged coupled mothers in England. While in principle the policy environment has shifted from assumptions of a male breadwinner to dual earners, in practice severe constraints on mothers' labour market attachment bring women half the lifetime earnings of men. British Household Panel Survey data for coupled low‐waged women in England show them as likely to work short part‐time hours, have low‐waged partners and low household wages while belonging to male breadwinner partnerships in terms of their contribution to household wages and unpaid work; but that few women support this model. Interviews with low‐waged mothers show evidence of limited choices, constrained by social policies which offer limited and piecemeal support for working parenthood. Given the choice, low‐waged mothers and their partners would find policies available elsewhere in Europe attractive. They see a more universal comprehensive system of childcare as enabling women's employment and improving children's quality of life; a shorter working week as enabling mothers and fathers to lead more balanced lives and a father's quota of parental leave fitting with their assumptions about sharing care.