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151.
Abstract We specify a revised model of the demographic transition which accounts for national fertility levels and changes over the past two decades. The model includes cultural, geographic, demographic and family planning program variables, in addition to a measure of national socio-economic modernization. Using crude birth rates for 117 countries, we operationalize and then apply the revised model to 1974 rates, and then test a longitudinal model of 1955–59 to 1974 change in rates. A final model for 81 less developed nations from the original set of 117 countries includes a measure of family planning program effort. Including this highly significant measure in a model of 1955–59 to 1974 change results in further evidence favoring modification of the traditional demographic transition model. Implications for the future course of fertility in underdeveloped countries are discussed. 相似文献
152.
William R King 《Omega》1984,12(6):529-538
The notion of a ‘strategic issues’ is rather pervasive in the field of planning in both conceptual [5, 19] and practical contexts. For instance, sometime ago the Wall Street Journal [41] reported that at least 50 large firms have created positions of ‘issues management director’; a dramatic increase in the number of such positions. ‘True’ strategic issues have a readily apparent importance to any organization; yet the process of identifying such issues and of integrating them into strategic planning and management is not well developed. Most treatments of strategic issues deal only with specific segments of the overall process through which relevant issues may be initially identified and finally translated into appropriate strategy [e.g. 5, 17]. This paper demonstrates that it is practical to develop a comprehensive process of ‘strategic issue management’ (SIM) that will facilitate the systematic identification, assessment and analysis of such issues. Such a process can ensure that issue-related factors are fully integrated into the formulation and implementation of strategy and plans. As such, SIM is a process whereby strategic issues may become an integral element of strategic management. 相似文献
153.
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155.
This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R2 to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted. 相似文献
156.
Using the LISREL maximum-likelihood program, the relation between Bradburn's positive affect and negative affect scales is examined for three age groups of adults. It is found that (a) unequal item loadings fit significantly better than equal item loadings; (b) the best-fitting loadings for the elderly are significantly different from those of the non-elderly; (c) the positive and negative affect scales are substantially correlated and (d) correlations with related variables are stronger when positive and negative affect scales are formed by maximum-likelihood loadings rather than by unit loadings. Given the widespread use of Bradburn's scales, implications of these results for subjective well-being are discussed. 相似文献
157.
This paper presents a model for organizing family issues and family treatment. Schutz's FIRO model is offered as a framework for organizing family issues into inclusion, control and affection categories. Following Schutz's theory of group development, we propose that inclusion, control and affection constitute a logical hierarchy of core issues to be dealt with in treating multiproblem families-inclusion first, then control, and then affection (intimacy). Furthermore, we propose that the FIRO model can be used to organize theories of family therapy. We attempt to demonstrate that different family therapies are best suited for one of the three core issues of family interaction. We advocate an "intelligent eclecticism" based on the premise that when an issue is appropriately matched with a therapy, therapeutic effectiveness should be enhanced. We also discuss implications of our Family FIRO model for clinical practice. 相似文献
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159.
A technique for analyzing group membership data, such as interlocking directorates, based on the assumption of latent classes of individuals, is described and illustrated with two data sets. The technique partitions individuals and/or groups into homogeneous sets and can be used to create measures of structural centrality for groups and for individuals. 相似文献
160.
Estimation of nonlinear functions of a multinomial parameter vector is necessary in many categorical data problems. The first and second order jackknife are explored for the purpose of reduction of bias. The second order jackknife of a function g(.) of a multinomial parameter is shown to be asymptotically normal if all second order partials ?2g( p )?dpi?pj obey a Hölder condition with exponent α>1/2. Numerical results for the estimation of the log odds ratio in a 2times2 table demonstrate the efficiency of the jackknife method for reduction of mean-square-error and the construction of approximate confidence intervals. 相似文献