Resources, Living Arrangements and First Union Formation in the United States, the Netherlands and West Germany

This paper addresses the impact of the previous living arrangement (living in the parental home versus living away) on first union formation. We investigate differences between the living arrangements in the impact of individual and parental resources. Analyses are performed for three countries with different welfare regimes: the USA, the Netherlands and West Germany. Many of our findings are in line with the general hypothesis that resources matter less to union formation for those living away from the parents than for those still living in the parental home. Furthermore, the results suggest that resources matter less in Conservative Continental European welfare regimes than in the USA, a Liberal Market welfare regime. Mulder, C.H., Clark, W.A.V. and Wagner, M. 2005. Resources, Living Arrangements and First Union Formation in the United States, the Netherlands and West Germany. European Journal of Population, Mulder, C.H., Clark, W.A.V. et Wagner, M. 2005. Ressources, mode de logement et première entrée en union aux états-Unis, aux Pays-Bas et en Allemagne de l’ouest. Revue européenne de démographie.     

ECONOMIC AND OTHER SOCIETAL DETERMINANTS OF THE PREVALENCE OF HIV: A Test of Competing Hypotheses

The spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is believed to result from HIV-infected individuals who are unaware of their infection and, thus, the possible consequences of their sexual behavior for others. However, differential rates of HIV infection between countries may reflect a different set of circumstances. We obtained data from the World Bank and several other sources to test eight alternative explanations for the global differences in prevalence of HIV infection: (1) economic underdevelopment, (2) inadequate public health care, (3) insufficient media, (4) political instability, (5) overurbanization, (6) social inequity, (7) religion, and (8) region. Our regression findings showed that income inequality and political instability had statistically significant positive effects on HIV/AIDS prevalence and that gender equality had a negative effect on HIV/AIDS prevalence. Religion and region were also important predictors, as countries that were predominately Muslim and Christian Orthodox generally had lower prevalence of HIV/AIDS, whereas West Africa, Central Africa, and Southern Africa had a higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS. None of the public health and media indicators were statistically relevant.     

Fitting and comparing seed germination models with a focus on the inverse normal distribution

This paper reviews current methods for fitting a range of models to censored seed germination data and recommends adoption of a probability‐based model for the time to germination. It shows that, provided the probability of a seed eventually germinating is not on the boundary, maximum likelihood estimates, their standard errors and the resultant deviances are identical whether only those seeds which have germinated are used or all seeds (including seeds ungerminated at the end of the experiment). The paper recommends analysis of deviance when exploring whether replicate data are consistent with a hypothesis that the underlying distributions are identical, and when assessing whether data from different treatments have underlying distributions with common parameters. The inverse normal distribution, otherwise known as the inverse Gaussian distribution, is discussed, as a natural distribution for the time to germination (including a parameter to measure the lag time to germination). The paper explores some of the properties of this distribution, evaluates the standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and suggests an accurate approximation to the cumulative distribution function and the median time to germination. Additional material is on the web, at http://www.agric.usyd.edu.au/staff/oneill/ .     

JOB VALUES, REWARDS, AND WORK CONDITIONS AS FACTORS IN JOB SATISFACTION AMONG MEN AND WOMEN

Sex differences in job satisfaction are explored utilizing data from the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) General Social Surveys, 1974–1982. Theoretically, differences in job satisfaction are accounted for by job rewards, job values, work conditions, and individual attributes. This study confirms that women receive significantly fewer job rewards than men, have significantly different job conditions, and possess slightly different work values. However, there is no difference in job satisfaction between women and men. As a consequence, these factors may not affect levels of job satisfaction, or men's and women's job satisfaction may be determined by different determinants. Alternatively, the relative level of these factors compared to one's past or expected levels may be more important than absolute levels. The multiple regression analyses reveal that similar determinants influence women's and men's job satisfaction, but that the determinants operate differently. Age and occupational prestige were significant predictors in both full models. Moreover, for both men and women a sense that one's personal situation is improving is more important than concrete rewards.     

PREVALENCE OF FAMILY THERAPY MODELS: A RESEARCH NOTE

A survey was undertaken to assess the prevalence of family therapy models utilized by a sample of members in the American Association for Marital and Family Therapy. Frequencies and rankings of widely recognized therapeutic frameworks are reported. Brief discussion centers on the highest ranking choice, the notion of eclecticism, and cautious interpretation of the data.     

THE SYMBOLIC INTERACTIONIST “I” AS IRONIST: TOWARD ALTERNATIVE WORLDS*

Symbolic Interactionist Irony (SII) has as its aspiration, possibility, and achievement the creation of alternative worlds of seeing and doing. The constituent features of irony as detached from and skeptical of all available perspectives elevate its status to that as transcendental of extant reality. The internal logic-of-discovery and reflexive mood of SII conclude that all knowledge have an inseparable personal and autonomous basis. Hence, there are alternative ways but no final way of knowing. Knowledge without final truth value is–and can only be–an alternative world of seeing and doing. Nonetheless, an ironic alternative world is seen as an emergent that has its own integrity from the interaction of facts against analytic perspectives. The works of Erving Goffman and Joseph R. Gusfield, and their roots in the writings of Kenneth Burke, are read as having conceptual resonance for SII as an intellectual style. An ironic reading is thus offered of how SII practice is possible and how this practice refocuses the worlds of seeing and doing.     

Economic evaluation of drug court: methodology, results, and policy implications

The purpose of this study was to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of three Drug Court programs in Kentucky for two groups of Drug Court participants: program graduates and program terminators. The economic benefits of the Drug Court programs were estimated relative to a comparison group of individuals who were assessed for the Drug Court programs, but did not enter the programs. This study highlights important factors in estimating the costs and the economic benefits of a Drug Court program. Results indicated that, particularly for graduates, Drug Court involvement was associated with reductions in incarceration, mental health services, and legal costs, as well as increases in earnings and child support payments. Net benefits and benefit–cost ratios for each program are presented and policy implications are discussed.     

A stratified Warner''s randomized response model

This paper proposes a new stratified randomized response model based on Warner's (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 60 (1965) 63) model that has an optimal allocation and large gain in precision. It also presents a drawback of the Hong et al. (Korean J. Appl. Statist. 7 (1994) 141) model under their proportional sampling assumption. It is shown that the proposed model is more efficient than the Hong et al. (Korean J. Appl. Statist. 7 (1994) 141) stratified randomized response model. Additionally, it is shown that the estimator based on the proposed method is more efficient than the Warner (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 60 (1965) 63), the Mangat and Singh (Biometrika 77 (1990) 439) and the Mangat (J. Roy. Statist. SQC. Ser. B 56 (1) (1994) 93) estimators under the conditions presented in both the case of completely truthful reporting and that of not completely truthful reporting by the respondents.     

Patterns of delinquent careers: An assessment of three perspectives

The literature on careers of juvenile delinquents has been divided as to whether or not career specialization occurs. It has recently been proposed that the careers of delinquents may be viewed as arising from a Markov process with the observed arrest histories the result of a series of stochastic events. This approach has considerable appeal for it provides a wealth of information about criminal behavior, including predictions concerning the length and diversification of a delinquent career, the long-run distribution of various types of crimes, the extent of specialization in delinquency, and offense switching over the course of a delinquent career. In the present paper, the career patterns for a sample of highly delinquent, incarcerated juveniles are investigated. Although some support is found for specialization in delinquent careers, especially among robbery offenders, the findings generally support situational theories of crime.     

THE 1985-86 OIL PRICE COLLAPSE AND AFTERWARDS: WHAT DOES GAME THEORY ADD?

This paper focuses on the strategies used by OPEC to generate cartel profits over the period 1983-90. The evidence supports the hypothesis that OPEC adopted a swing producer strategy from 1983 to 1985. But when Saudi Arabia's profits fell below the level of Coumot profits in the summer of 1985, it abandoned the role of swing producer, driving prices to the Cournot level. Subsequently, Saudi Arabia appears to have adopted a tit-for-tat strategy designed to punish excessive cheating by other OPEC members. Based on these findings, the strengths and limitations of game theory are assessed.