Four models of the public sphere in modern democracies

Theory and Society -     

Model-based estimation of individual fitness

Fitness is the currency of natural selection, a measure of the propagation rate of genotypes into future generations. Its various definitions have the common feature that they are functions of survival and fertility rates. At the individual level, the operative level for natural selection, these rates must be understood as latent features, genetically determined propensities existing at birth. This conception of rates requires that individual fitness be defined and estimated by consideration of the individual in a modelled relation to a group of similar individuals; the only alternative is to consider a sample of size one, unless a clone of identical individuals is available. We present hierarchical models describing individual heterogeneity in survival and fertility rates and allowing for associations between these rates at the individual level. We apply these models to an analysis of life histories of Kittiwakes ( Rissa tridactyla ) observed at several colonies on the Brittany coast of France. We compare Bayesian estimation of the population distribution of individual fitness with estimation based on treating individual life histories in isolation, as samples of size one (e.g. McGraw & Caswell, 1996).     

Examining the relationship between commuting patterns,employment growth and unemployment in the NSW Greater Metropolitan Region

This paper employs the Labour Market Accounts framework to explore how employment growth and commuting patterns interacted to determine changes in the spatial distribution of unemployment in Statistical Local Areas within the NSW GMR over the period 1996–2001. Separate regression models (including control variables) for men and women provide estimates of the relative strength of the relationships between these labour market adjustment responses and the percentage local employment change. The results show that employment growth between 1996 and 2001 has elicited substantial changes in commuting behaviour. Men reveal greater in‐commuting and migration responsiveness to employment growth. Unemployment changes in local areas of the Greater Metropolitan Sydney region have been swamped by commuting responses, potentially posing problems for locally targeted employment strategies.     

Validation of Multimedia Models Assessing Exposure to PAHs—The SOLEX Study

Polluted soils have become a public health problem. While population exposure to soil pollutants is generally quantified using multimedia models, their estimations have not been validated, and studies that attempted to do so are scarce. The objective of the SOLEX study was to compare the predictions of pyrene exposure levels (converted into 1 hydroxypyrene) computed by several models with the results of urinary 1-hydropyrene (1-HOP) assays among 110 employees working at three sites polluted during their past use as manufactured gas plants. Four models were used: AERIS (Canada), CalTOX (California, USA), CLEA (UK), and HESP (The Netherlands). Three occupational exposure scenarios--with office, mixed, and outdoor workers--were constructed, based upon job activities during two measurement campaigns, one in winter and one in summer. The exposure levels estimated by the four models could differ markedly (from 7 up to 80 times) according to the exposure scenario. Also, the predominant exposure routes differed according to the model (direct soil ingestion for HESP and CalTOX, inhalation for AERIS, and dermal absorption for CLEA). The predictions of CalTOX are consistent with the 1-HOP measurements for all the scenarios. For HESP, the consistency is observed for the scenarios, office and mixed, for which the pyrene level in the soil is low. AERIS and CLEA yield results that are systematically above the 1-HOP measurements. This study confirms that validation of the models is crucial and points out to the need to proceed to assess components of the models that are the most influential using appropriate statistical analysis in combination with true field data.     

Resources, Living Arrangements and First Union Formation in the United States, the Netherlands and West Germany

This paper addresses the impact of the previous living arrangement (living in the parental home versus living away) on first union formation. We investigate differences between the living arrangements in the impact of individual and parental resources. Analyses are performed for three countries with different welfare regimes: the USA, the Netherlands and West Germany. Many of our findings are in line with the general hypothesis that resources matter less to union formation for those living away from the parents than for those still living in the parental home. Furthermore, the results suggest that resources matter less in Conservative Continental European welfare regimes than in the USA, a Liberal Market welfare regime. Mulder, C.H., Clark, W.A.V. and Wagner, M. 2005. Resources, Living Arrangements and First Union Formation in the United States, the Netherlands and West Germany. European Journal of Population, Mulder, C.H., Clark, W.A.V. et Wagner, M. 2005. Ressources, mode de logement et première entrée en union aux états-Unis, aux Pays-Bas et en Allemagne de l’ouest. Revue européenne de démographie.     

ECONOMIC AND OTHER SOCIETAL DETERMINANTS OF THE PREVALENCE OF HIV: A Test of Competing Hypotheses

The spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is believed to result from HIV-infected individuals who are unaware of their infection and, thus, the possible consequences of their sexual behavior for others. However, differential rates of HIV infection between countries may reflect a different set of circumstances. We obtained data from the World Bank and several other sources to test eight alternative explanations for the global differences in prevalence of HIV infection: (1) economic underdevelopment, (2) inadequate public health care, (3) insufficient media, (4) political instability, (5) overurbanization, (6) social inequity, (7) religion, and (8) region. Our regression findings showed that income inequality and political instability had statistically significant positive effects on HIV/AIDS prevalence and that gender equality had a negative effect on HIV/AIDS prevalence. Religion and region were also important predictors, as countries that were predominately Muslim and Christian Orthodox generally had lower prevalence of HIV/AIDS, whereas West Africa, Central Africa, and Southern Africa had a higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS. None of the public health and media indicators were statistically relevant.     

JOB VALUES, REWARDS, AND WORK CONDITIONS AS FACTORS IN JOB SATISFACTION AMONG MEN AND WOMEN

Sex differences in job satisfaction are explored utilizing data from the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) General Social Surveys, 1974–1982. Theoretically, differences in job satisfaction are accounted for by job rewards, job values, work conditions, and individual attributes. This study confirms that women receive significantly fewer job rewards than men, have significantly different job conditions, and possess slightly different work values. However, there is no difference in job satisfaction between women and men. As a consequence, these factors may not affect levels of job satisfaction, or men's and women's job satisfaction may be determined by different determinants. Alternatively, the relative level of these factors compared to one's past or expected levels may be more important than absolute levels. The multiple regression analyses reveal that similar determinants influence women's and men's job satisfaction, but that the determinants operate differently. Age and occupational prestige were significant predictors in both full models. Moreover, for both men and women a sense that one's personal situation is improving is more important than concrete rewards.     

PREVALENCE OF FAMILY THERAPY MODELS: A RESEARCH NOTE

A survey was undertaken to assess the prevalence of family therapy models utilized by a sample of members in the American Association for Marital and Family Therapy. Frequencies and rankings of widely recognized therapeutic frameworks are reported. Brief discussion centers on the highest ranking choice, the notion of eclecticism, and cautious interpretation of the data.