CUSUM control schemes for monitoring the covariance matrix of multivariate time series

Modified cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charts and CUSUM schemes for residuals are suggested to detect changes in the covariance matrix of multivariate time series. Several properties of these schemes are derived when the in-control process is a stationary Gaussian process. A Monte Carlo study reveals that the proposed approaches show similar or even better performance than the schemes based on the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) recursion. We illustrate how the control procedures can be applied to monitor the covariance structure of developed stock market indices.     

A note on corporate valuation using imprecise cost of capital

We compare the estimator for discount rates according to Elsner and Krumholz (EK) (J Bus Econ 83:985–1014, 2013) to the approach propagated in Breuer et al. (BFM) (Eur J Financ 20:568–594, 2014). While the EK estimator is derived analytically and implies a correcting factor by which the original arithmetic mean estimator is adjusted, the BFM approach is based on a simple ad hoc modification and recommends to truncate the time horizon for cash flow projection up to about N = 30 years. The BFM approach is reasonable, as the most relevant bias problems are implied by terminal value computations. Rather surprisingly, for our main simulation analysis based on real-world capital market data for 19 countries over the period 2008–2012, the EK estimator turns out inferior to the BFM approach. However, results depend on the kind of bias measure and on the issue of whether using total historical returns or only excess returns for evaluation purposes. In any case, our findings imply that a rather straightforward rule of thumb for valuation may be of value to practitioners: ‘stick to the simple arithmetic mean estimator without terminal value computation, but consider future cash flows up to a time horizon of about 30 years’.     

Structural landscape changes in urban and peri-urban agricultural systems of two West African cities and their relations to ecosystem services provided by woody plant communities

Urban Ecosystems - High urbanization pressure in Sub-Saharan Africa led to changes in the composition and configuration of rural and peri-urban agricultural production systems and to the...     

Rezension zu Antons, K., Ehrensperger, H. & Milesi, R. (2019). Praxis der Gruppendynamik. Übungen und Modelle. 10., vollständig überarbeitete Auflage

Gruppe. Interaktion. Organisation. Zeitschrift für Angewandte Organisationspsychologie (GIO) -     

Das „flexible Tandemsetting“ bei Gruppendynamik-Trainings

The new “Flexible Tandem Setting” combines both elements of the classic group dynamic design and tandem design and allows to gather valuable experiences in group building process in the context of organizational learning and to reflect them. This new setting and three practical case studies are described and the specific new learning fields in team learning and organizational learning for these settings are focused. In the end new operational areas of application and their benefits are sketched.     

„The moral fabric in contemporary societies“ Bericht vom 35th world congress of the international institute of sociology Jagiellonian university Krakau, Polen, 11.–16. Juli 2001

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Interactive production planning and ergonomic assessment with Digital Human Models--introducing the Editor for Manual Work Activities (ema)

The aging workforce is a risk factor for manufacturing industries that contain many jobs with high physical workloads. Thus, ergonomic risk factors have to be avoided in early phases of production planning. This paper introduces a new tool for simulating manual work activities with 3D human models, the so-called emaΦ. For the most part, the emaΦ software is based on a unique modular approach including a number of complex operations that were theoretically developed and empirically validated by means of motion capturing technologies. Using these modules for defining the digital work process enables the production planner to compile human simulations more accurately and much quicker compared to any of the existing modeling tools. Features of the emaΦ software implementation, such as ergonomic evaluation and MTM-time analyses, and the workflow for practical application are presented.     

Multivariate CUSUM chart: properties and enhancements

The multivariate CUSUM#1 control chart of Pignatiello and Runger (J. Qual. Technol. 22:173–186, 1991) is widely used in practical applications due to its good ability to detect shifts of small and medium size in a process of interest. This paper investigates properties and suggests several refinements of this chart. The performance of the competing procedures is evaluated within a Monte Carlo simulation study. The suggested log MCUSUM chart proves to be the best among the investigated alternatives for the considered performance criteria.     

Economic,Social, and Cultural Determinants of Life Satisfaction: Are there Differences Between Asia and Europe?

This paper investigates the influence of the economic, social, and cultural variables on life satisfaction in Asia and Europe. The second section sets a unifying theoretical framework for all three domains by defining life satisfaction as a function of aspirations and expectations which in turn are affected by micro- and macro-level variables. On the micro-level, economic capital is a resource for the actor. On the macro-level, societal economic capital improves the opportunity structure for the individual under certain conditions. Thus, economic capital on both levels positively affects the perceived chances of fulfilling aspirations. As long as the latter remain unchanged life satisfaction will increase. Social and cultural factors partially follow the same logic, as indicated by the terms social and cultural capital. Under a set of assumptions, the hypotheses derived are that personal and societal economic capital, national pride and national integration, religiosity, and societal religious integration, all positively affect the life satisfaction of the individual. A multi-level analysis of data from the European Values Study and the AsiaBarometer confirms the micro-level hypotheses. The economic macro-level indicators also display the theoretically expected positive effect on life satisfaction in the multivariate analysis of Asian and European data. By contrast, the direct cross-level effects of a society’s national integration and particularly of religion do not become significant in Europe, yet they are highly significant in Asia. This strong influence of the social and cultural context in Asia can be interpreted in two different ways.