A moment-matching Ferguson & Klass algorithm

Completely random measures (CRM) represent the key building block of a wide variety of popular stochastic models and play a pivotal role in modern Bayesian Nonparametrics. The popular Ferguson & Klass representation of CRMs as a random series with decreasing jumps can immediately be turned into an algorithm for sampling realizations of CRMs or more elaborate models involving transformed CRMs. However, concrete implementation requires to truncate the random series at some threshold resulting in an approximation error. The goal of this paper is to quantify the quality of the approximation by a moment-matching criterion, which consists in evaluating a measure of discrepancy between actual moments and moments based on the simulation output. Seen as a function of the truncation level, the methodology can be used to determine the truncation level needed to reach a certain level of precision. The resulting moment-matching Ferguson & Klass algorithm is then implemented and illustrated on several popular Bayesian nonparametric models.     

An Examination of Factors Affecting Economic Status and Finances Satisfaction of Families: A Comparison of Metropolitan and Rural Areas

Research on the family financial management behavior has gained a great impetus over 30 years. There has been a growing interest in the question of how families organize or manage their economic resources and financial satisfaction. The main purpose of this study is to examine factors affecting financial behaviors and financial satisfaction of families who live in metropolitan and rural areas. Participants in the study consist of women who are married and dwelling in Ankara and Karabuk cities of Turkey. A total of 3,046 female (with an approximate 87 % participation rate) are participated in the study on a voluntary (Ankara n = 1,300; Karabuk n = 1,746). Results indicated that 45.4 % of females have determined that economic decision making are always shared by couples (Ankara 41.9 %; Karabuk 47.9 %). Among women who lived in Ankara (62.3 %) have not saving their income, while the group of Karabuk (51.4 %) have sometimes saving. Similar results have been found in terms of the expenditure behaviors among the families who are living in both of the metropolitan and rural areas. The rates of the families living both in Ankara and Karabuk who state that they have become indebted due to various reasons (Ankara 56.5 %; Karabuk 72.9 %) is higher compared to those who state they have not become indebted. Among the females who stated that they are “very dissatisfied” from their savings behavior, “satisfied” with their expenditure behaviors and “dissatisfied” with their debt behaviors are higher percentage (50.6 %, 47.9 %, and 48.3 % respectively).     

Comparisons of the alternative biased estimators for the distributed lag models

The finite distributed lag models include highly correlated variables as well as lagged and unlagged values of the same variables. Some problems are faced for this model when applying the ordinary least squares (OLS) method or econometric models such as Almon and Koyck models. The primary aim of this study is to compare performances of alternative estimators to the OLS estimator defined by combining the Almon estimator with some estimators using Almon (1965) data. A simulation study with different model parameters is performed and the estimators are compared according to the root mean square error (RMSE) and prediction mean square error (PMSE).     

An Explicit Distribution to Model the Proportion of Heating Degree Day and Cooling Degree Day

With a view to estimating the energy consumption, we derive the explicit distribution of the proportion X/(X + Y) when X and Y follow the new Bivariate Affine-Linear Exponential distribution. An application of this distribution to model the proportion of heating using the heating degree day and the cooling degree day data in the State of Alabama for Appalachian Mountain is provided. Using intensive computations based on R-program, tabulation of some quantiles associated with this particular distribution of proportion is also provided, which is quite useful in estimating the proportion of energy required to heat a building.     

Friends in high places: A dyadic perspective on peer status as predictor of friendship quality and the mediating role of empathy and prosocial behavior

Friendships and peer status play important roles in the social landscape of adolescents and are related to developmental outcomes. Yet, how peer status is related to friendship quality and what role social skills play in this association remains unclear. In this study, we use Actor–Partner Interdependence (Mediation) Modeling (Ledermann, Macho, & Kenny, 2011 ) to investigate how two forms of peer status, preference and popularity, are related to positive and negative friendship quality in mid‐adolescence. Results show that adolescents who are friends with more preferred (i.e., likeable) and popular adolescents report higher friendship quality. These partner effects were partially mediated by adolescents’ own prosocial behavior and their friends’ empathy levels. Higher levels of empathy of one's friend and one's own lesser preference for equity explained why adolescents were more satisfied in a friendship with highly preferred (i.e., likeable) adolescents. Interestingly, empathy was not a mediator for the link between friendship quality and popularity. These findings promote a better understanding of the interplay between different levels of social complexity (i.e., individual, dyadic and peer group level) in adolescence.     

A new index of perceived inflation: Assumptions, method, and application to Germany

After the introduction of Euro notes and coins in January 2002, throughout the Economic and Monetary Union member countries a substantial discrepancy was evident between inflation as measured by the official consumer price indices (CPI) and that perceived by the general public. The starting point of this paper is the German case. First, the public controversy in Germany after the Euro changeover is sketched. Then conventional approaches to perceived inflation are reviewed including the many studies published by the German Federal Statistical Office as well as the perceived inflation balance generated within the EU Consumer Survey. In the main part of the paper, a novel approach to measuring perceived inflation is developed, the Index of Perceived Inflation (IPI). First, the hypotheses underlying this index are presented. Then, the IPI is derived. In the forth section the IPI is applied to the German data. The IPI time series for Germany from 1996 through 2005 shows a particularly high perceived inflation around the introduction of Euro notes and coins. In the fifth section the hypotheses of inflation perception underlying the IPI are critically reviewed. The paper closes with a conclusion on the insights gained through computation of the IPI.     

论西藏近代商人阶层的形成

1890年<中英会议藏印条约>的签署,标志着西藏开始了半殖民化的过程.在这一重要的历史转折时期,西藏内部开始采取自我振兴的新政措施,有些人开始"弃农从商",从而兴起了一股民间投资商业的热潮.在此背景下,不断增长的流动人口压力造成了封建庄园内部的变动,开垦荒地和新庄园的建立,使得原来封闭的封建庄园出现了松动,西藏近代商人群体抓住此契机最终登上了历史舞台,从而形成了西藏近代商人阶层.