Prediction in moving average processes

For the stationary invertible moving average process of order one with unknown innovation distribution F, we construct root-n   consistent plug-in estimators of conditional expectations E(h(_Xn+1)|_X1,…,_Xn)$E(h(X_{n+1})|X_1,\dots ,X_n)$. More specifically, we give weak conditions under which such estimators admit Bahadur-type representations, assuming some smoothness of h or of F. For fixed h it suffices that h   is locally of bounded variation and locally Lipschitz in _L2(F)$L_2(F)$, and that the convolution of h and F   is continuously differentiable. A uniform representation for the plug-in estimator of the conditional distribution function P(_Xn+1?·|_X1,…,_Xn)$P(X_{n+1}?·|X_1,\dots ,X_n)$ holds if F has a uniformly continuous density. For a smoothed version of our estimator, the Bahadur representation holds uniformly over each class of functions h that have an appropriate envelope and whose shifts are F-Donsker, assuming some smoothness of F. The proofs use empirical process arguments.     

Ethnic Prejudice and Discrimination in Europe

This article provides an introduction to research on European prejudice and discrimination. First, we list the distinctive characteristics of a European perspective and provide a short sketch of European immigration and ethnic groups. Europe has become a multicultural community. Nevertheless, public opinion and the continent's politics often do not reflect this empirical fact. Prejudice and discrimination directed at immigrants are a widespread phenomena across Europe. Several cross-European surveys support this conclusion, although theoretically driven surveys on prejudice and discrimination in Europe remain rare. Cross-European research studies classical and modern theories of prejudice and discrimination and attempts to uncover the psychological mechanisms that explain individual readiness to exclude ethnic groups. A brief sketch of recent European research is presented. This issue offers both important cross-national perspectives as well as needed comparisons with the more studied case of racial prejudice and discrimination in the United States.     

Relative Deprivation and Intergroup Prejudice

Using three diverse European surveys, we test the relationship between relative deprivation (RD) and anti-immigrant prejudice. We find that both group relative deprivation (GRD) and individual relative deprivation (IRD) are found primarily among working-class respondents who are politically alienated. We also find that GRD, but not IRD, serves as a proximal correlate of prejudice. IRD's effects on prejudice are largely mediated through GRD. In addition, GRD partially mediates the effects of such distal predictors of prejudice as education and family income. Finally, blaming the victim mediates in part the GRD link with prejudice. These results lead to a socially situated path model of RD's effects on prejudice with public policy implications.     

CHOOSING (AND RENEGING ON) EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

We use data on announced and actual exchange rate arrangements to ask which countries follow de facto regimes different from their de iure ones, that is, do not do what they say. Our results suggest that countries with poor institutional quality have difficulty in maintaining pegging and abandon it often. In contrast, many countries with relatively good institutions display fear of floating, that is, they manage more than announced, perhaps to signal their differences from those countries incapable of maintaining promises of monetary stability. (JEL: F3, O1)     

Selbstmanagement-Entwicklung durch coaching?

Development of self-management by coaching? An expert survey on the promotion of self-management competenciesThe much-discussed assumption that business coaching promotes clients’ self-management competence was explored through an expert survey. In a qualitative questionnaire study, 20 professional coaches provided information on their conceptual understanding of self-management, their approaches to promoting client self-management and on strategies employed to assess intervention outcome. In addition, coaches specified the obstacles and constraints clients encounter when transferring improved self-management skills into everyday working life. The results corroborate the relevance of the self-management concept in a coaching context. The benefits resulting from an increased consideration of self-management processes in coaching research, vocational training courses and day-to-day coaching practice are discussed. The use of theoretical concepts which provide a guideline is recommended.     

Unions and innovative activity in Germany

This study is the first attempt to investigate the influence of unions on innovative activities in Germany at the industry level. Econometric models estimated by a highly robust method and submitted to a number of specification tests indicate that trade unions do not have a negative impact on innovative activity which is measured by either the percentage of revenues spent on R&D or the percentage of employees working in R&D. This finding is consistent with evidence on the influence of unions on productivity in Germany and with considerations about the German system of industrial relations.     

Schulverweigerung

The aim of this article is to describe the extent of truancy in Cologne and to identify the relevant predictors. Hypotheses are deduced from classical deviance theories (control theory, amomy theory, theory of urban subcultures) and tested empirically. Our analysis is based on a survey of pupils in Cologne from grade 8 to 10 which was conducted in 1999 by the Max Planck Institute for Foreign and International Criminal Law in Freiburg. Our results show that 7.9 percent of all respondends can be defined as truants. Boys play truant more than girls, and the higher the age, the more pupils bunk off school. More important than gender and age is the type of secondary school. We find the highest amount of truants at Hauptschulen and Sonderschulen. It is shown that truancy is a multidimensional phenomenon that cannot be explained by just one single theory.     

Analytical uses of Kalman filtering in econometrics — A survey

This paper surveys the different uses of Kalman filtering in the estimation of statistical (econometric) models. The Kalman filter will be portrayed as (i) a natural generalization of exponential smoothing with a time-dependent smoothing factor, (ii) a recursive estimation technique for a variety of econometric models amenable to a state space formulation in particular for econometric models with time varying coefficients (iii) an instrument for the recursive calculation of the likelihood of the (constant) state space coefficients (iv) a means of helping to implement the scoring⁻ and EM-method for iteratively maximizing this likelihood (v) an analytical tool in asymptotic estimation theory. The concluding section points to the importance of Kalman filtering for alternatives to maximum⁻ likelihood estimation of state space parameters.     

What difference do alternative immigration and integration levels make to Western Europe?

The population of Western Europe (EC plus EFTA) is seen as consisting of three sub-populations: the natives, the East-European immigrants, and the non-European immigrants. Different immigration levels assumed add to the non-native populations while different levels of integration describe the transition intensities from a non-native to a native category. Alternative multi-state population projections to 2050 based on six scenarios show that (1) in the case of no further immigration the total population of Western Europe will start to decline after 2010; (2) the rate of integration influences the future size of the non-European population much more than alternative levels of immigration; (3) in the long run the Eastern Europeans will be quantitatively insignificant; (4) the Western European population is bound to significant population aging no matter what happens with immigration; and (5) in the short to medium run immigrants contribute to the alleviation of the pension burden.La population d'Europe occidentale (CE et AELE) est décomposée en trois sous-populations: les natifs, les immigrants originaires d'Europe de l'Est, et les immigrants originaires du reste du monde. Les populations non-natives augmentent sous l'effet de divers niveaux d'immigration tandis que les intensités de passage d'une catégorie non-native à native sont décrites par différents niveaux d' intégration. Des projections de population jusqu'en 2050 dans ces divers états, basées sur six scénarios, montrent que: (1) la population totale de l'Europe occidentale commencerait à baisser après 2010, dans le cas d'un arrêt de l'immigration; (2) le taux d' intégration influencerait la taille future de la population non-européenne beaucoup plus fortement que le niveau d'immigration; (3) dans le long terme, les Européens de l'Est serait en nombre très réduit; (4) la population d'Europe occidentale connaîtra un vieillissement important de sa population, quelque soit ses flux d'immigrants; et (5) dans le court et le moyen terme les immigrants contribueraient à alléger le poids des retraites.