美国不确定性对中国经济的时变冲击——基于QBLL-TVP-VAR模型的实证分析

近年来,伴随着外部不确定性的凸显,中国经济不可避免地会遭受到外部不确定性尤其是美国不确定性的冲击.为此,本文基于拟贝叶斯局部似然估计的时变参数向量自回归(QBLL-TVP-VAR)模型实证分析了美国宏观经济不确定性、金融不确定性和经济政策不确定性三类不确定性对中国经济的动态影响及其差异.实证结果表明:(1)美国宏观经济不确定性引致中国产出和价格分别在2014-2020年和2008年全球金融危机期间显著下降,对中国经济产生的不利影响最大;美国金融不确定性仅引致中国产出在2016-2020年显著下降,对中国经济产生的不利影响居中;而美国经济政策不确定性仅引致中国产出在2019-2020年显著下降,对中国经济产生的不利影响最小.(2)美国宏观经济、金融和经济政策不确定性均通过降低中国消费和中关货物贸易对中国经济产生了不利影响,但美国宏观经济和金融不确定性还分别通过降低中国投资和中国股价对中国经济产生了不利影响.(3)时变预测误差方差分解结果表明,在2008年全球金融危机期间美国金融不确定性是导致中国经济波动的主要外部因素,而在2017-2020年美国宏观经济不确定性是导致中国经济波动的主要外部因素.据此,建议政府建立前瞻性预警机制和反应机制、强化对外部不确定性的监测与分析,充分利用多种宏观经济调控工具对国内经济进行适时、精准干预和引导,扩大对外贸易开放、实施多样化的贸易开放战略,深化供给侧结构性改革、加速形成以国内大循环为主体和国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,来应对外部不确定性冲击.     

用海盐石膏制备硅酸盐水泥缓凝剂和增强剂的研究

在分析、测定了海盐石膏的化学组成和矿物组成及热特性的基础上，研究了不同煅烧条件下制备的改性海盐石膏对硅酸盐水泥主要性能的影响。结果表明：改性海盐石膏既明显地提高水泥的早期强度和略提高水泥的后期强度，还能十分明显地提高高掺量混合材水泥的强度，且水泥的凝结时间正常。制备的最佳工艺参数是：锻烧温度800℃为左右，煅烧时间为0．5～1h。     

应用马氏过程预测市场行为

通过实例阐述马氏分析用以解决预测市场行为的基本思路，其结果中应用于企业经营管理决策。     

Gender discrimination and career decision-making difficulties among female Chinese college students: The buffering role of coping styles

The current study examined the relationship between gender discrimination and a form of career decision-making difficulties: emotional and personality-related career decision-making difficulties among female Chinese college students. It further examined the buffering effect of coping styles on the above relationship. A series of hierarchical regression analyses were conducted on a sample of 1427 female Chinese college students from 19 universities located in different regions in China. Results indicated that only suppressive style of coping served as a buffer on the relationship between gender discrimination and career decision-making difficulties. Also, gender discrimination, reflective style of coping, and reactive style of coping were positively associated with career decision-making difficulties. These results supported the need to develop career interventions focusing on discussion of gender discrimination, its impact on one's career decisions, as well as teaching distraction coping strategies in reducing the negative impact of gender discrimination on career decision-making difficulties among female Chinese college students.