改革开放以来中国民族理论若干问题研究述评

改革开放30年来,在国内外大势的影响下,中国民族理论研究经历了诸多的变化,但总趋势是:在探讨中发展,在摸索中前进。本文所论及的民族概念问题、民族形成问题、民族结构与民族属性问题、民族意识与民族关系问题,只是改革开放以来中国民族理论研究领域中很少但却是比较重要的几个问题。适逢改革开放30年,对这几个问题的研究成果进行归纳、概括和总结,无疑将有助于进一步推进中国民族理论研究的深入和发展。     

邓小平对毛泽东知识分子理论的继承和发展

知识分子是中国民主革命和社会主义建设队伍中不可缺少的重要力量 ,没有知识分子参加 ,革命和建设的事业是不能成功的。本文从三个方面阐述邓小平对毛泽东关于知识分子问题理论的继承和发展。重申知识分子是工人阶级的一部分 ,明确了知识分子的阶级属性 ;指出知识分子是党的一支依靠力量 ,要形成“尊重知识、尊重人才”的良好风尚     

Social Change and Social Policy in China: National Adaptation to Global Challenge

As a part of designed human intervention against social problems, social policy has to respond and adapt to social changes. In this article, the author aims to discuss social changes that occurred in the past decade in China (including economic, demographic, and cultural changes) and relate them to relevant social policies formulated by the Chinese government to address the concerned social issues. To interpret the roles of the state, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the community in tackling social problems in the changing context of the market economy and globalization, the author attempts to provide a theoretical explanation on the emergence of social policy in China in a new era and to further re-assess the concept of the welfare regime in East Asian countries.     

上海地区儿童权利家庭保护影响因素分析

本研究通过对上海地区儿童、家长、儿童教师进行儿童权利家庭保护问卷调查，来探讨当前上海地区儿童权利的家庭保护状况与其影响因素。结果发现：1．总体上，上海地区的家长与儿童对儿童权利受到保护的感知存在一致性，都认为儿童权利受到了较好保护，但在一致的基础上，对具体权利的感知上，儿童与家长还存在着一定的差异性。2．上海地区儿童自我保护意识较高，对《中国未成年人保护法》、自身哪些权利受到保护以及如何保护自身的权利都比较了解。3．儿童自我保护的意识和家长保护儿童权利的意识可能是影响儿童权利保护现状的主要因素。它们显著影响着儿童各个层面权利保护的现状。4．儿童性别、儿童年龄、家庭结构、是否独生子女等客观因素，对儿童与家长对儿童保护权利的感知都存在不同的影响，具有不确定的因素。家长性别、家长文化、经济收入水平仅仅影响家长对儿童权利保护的感知。5．在儿童享有的权利中，参与权受到的保护状况只受儿童性别的影响，保持着相对稳定的状态。儿童与家长对此项权利的衡量标准可能具有一致性。6．家长对孩子在学校教育权的关心只是出于自己是否关心孩子的成绩，而不是家长意识到这是儿童应该享有的权力。在此基础上，本研究提出了相应对策。     

Adaptive multiple importance sampling for Gaussian processes

In applications of Gaussian processes (GPs) where quantification of uncertainty is a strict requirement, it is necessary to accurately characterize the posterior distribution over Gaussian process covariance parameters. This is normally done by means of standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which require repeated expensive calculations involving the marginal likelihood. Motivated by the desire to avoid the inefficiencies of MCMC algorithms rejecting a considerable amount of expensive proposals, this paper develops an alternative inference framework based on adaptive multiple importance sampling (AMIS). In particular, this paper studies the application of AMIS for GPs in the case of a Gaussian likelihood, and proposes a novel pseudo-marginal-based AMIS algorithm for non-Gaussian likelihoods, where the marginal likelihood is unbiasedly estimated. The results suggest that the proposed framework outperforms MCMC-based inference of covariance parameters in a wide range of scenarios.     

Correlates of perceived effectiveness of the Safe Schools/Healthy Students Initiative

A three-level growth-curve model was applied to estimate perceived impact growth trajectories, using multi-year data from project and school surveys on outcome and program implementation collected from 59 sites and approximately 1165 participating schools in the Safe Schools and Healthy Students Initiative. Primary interest is to determine whether and how project-level and school-level correlates affect schools’ perceptions of the Initiative's effectiveness over time when the effects of the pre-grant environmental conditions, grant operations, and near-term outcomes are considered. Coordination and service integration, comprehensive programs and activities for early childhood development, and change in school involvement were found to be significant predictors of school-perceived overall impact when the effect of poverty was considered. Partnership functioning, perceived importance of school resources, and school involvement were found to be significant predictors of school-perceived impact on substance use prevention when the effect of poverty was considered.     

经济增长时期的国民幸福感——基于CGSS数据的追踪研究

为回应有关中国国民幸福感的争论,评估过去10年宏观经济和政策变化对普通人生活的影响,利用中国综合社会调查数据(CGSS),分析近10年国民幸福感变化趋势。研究基于5个时点、44166个样本,发现中国国民幸福感在过去10年内一直处于上升趋势,不同政治身份、户口类型、年龄、收入、婚姻状况、民族等群体的幸福感在过去10年都有不同程度的提高。经济增长可能是幸福感提升的动力;如果经济收缩,那么幸福感也可能随之下降。要确保经济社会协调发展,尚需对幸福感进行更多、更细致的追踪和研究。     

Benchmark Dose Analysis via Nonparametric Regression Modeling

Estimation of benchmark doses (BMDs) in quantitative risk assessment traditionally is based upon parametric dose‐response modeling. It is a well‐known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric model is uncertain and/or misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low‐dose inferences can result. We describe a nonparametric approach for estimating BMDs with quantal‐response data based on an isotonic regression method, and also study use of corresponding, nonparametric, bootstrap‐based confidence limits for the BMD. We explore the confidence limits’ small‐sample properties via a simulation study, and illustrate the calculations with an example from cancer risk assessment. It is seen that this nonparametric approach can provide a useful alternative for BMD estimation when faced with the problem of parametric model uncertainty.     

音乐人类学研究的方法论意义

音乐人类学在当代西方音乐思潮中占有非常重要的地位,并对西方音乐研究产生了重大影响.20世纪80年代以来,音乐人类学成为最引人注目的领域之一,人们对音乐人类学的研究方兴未艾.近年来,音乐人类学的观点与方法论的更新已是十分明显,不论是学科结构还是具体论述,都是新颖与鲜活的,音乐人类学的方法论探讨已成为一种不可忽视的趋势.本文从方法论的角度,对音乐人类学进行全面、深入的探讨与思考,同时对音乐人类学方法论的基本观念进行了评析,最后重点对音乐人类学方法论的可行性和局限性进行探讨.