论墓志所见北魏幕府僚佐起家问题

初仕含义的起家官是士人出身等第信息的浓缩,也是六朝士族制社会维护门第流品秩序的关键,故受门阀化洗礼的北魏墓志对此高调标榜。墓志资料显示,伴随着北魏诸公及将军幕府机构的膨胀,原本鲜有高门问津的僚佐逐渐步入清流行列,成为显赫的士族起家官。幕僚释褐对候选者的家世背景有严格要求,三代世资达到旧令五品以上方能入围,以此确保士族的垄断权益。其内部分层清晰明确,功臣后裔、五等封君和精英人士高居新令六品以上,世资一、二品的宗室位列正七品,同等条件的庶姓及世资三至五品者退居从七品,这里折射出崭新的阀阅等级体系和统治集团的构造特征。从幕僚出身者的仕途前景来看,首次调转往往破格超迁,平生所任最高官普遍跨越象征公卿大夫层位的五品官僚线,极具强劲的助推潜质,因而备受士族推崇。评判官职清浊的传统标准就此彻底被颠覆,也引发我们对北魏士族风尚潮流及文化价值取向的重新认识。     

全球一体化催生的一株诗坛奇葩——中韩生态环境诗兴起脉络初探

西方发达国家于20世纪60年代产生的生态文学,在东西方冷战结束后,影响到了中韩两国的诗歌创作,20世纪80年代后,中韩两国诗坛上先后兴起生态环境诗。虽然中韩在社会基础、诗歌自身发展等因素上存在着各自差异,但在全球一体化的语境下,生态环境诗则形象地表达了两国诗人对工业文明的共同思考。     

Cross‐Milieu Terrorist Collaboration: Using Game Theory to Assess the Risk of a Novel Threat

This article uses a game‐theoretic approach to analyze the risk of cross‐milieu terrorist collaboration—the possibility that, despite marked ideological differences, extremist groups from very different milieus might align to a degree where operational collaboration against Western societies becomes possible. Based upon theoretical insights drawn from a variety of literatures, a bargaining model is constructed that reflects the various benefits and costs for terrorists’ collaboration across ideological milieus. Analyzed in both sequential and simultaneous decision‐making contexts and through numerical simulations, the model confirms several theoretical arguments. The most important of these is that although likely to be quite rare, successful collaboration across terrorist milieus is indeed feasible in certain circumstances. The model also highlights several structural elements that might play a larger role than previously recognized in the collaboration decision, including that the prospect of nonmaterial gains (amplification of terror and reputational boost) plays at least as important a role in the decision to collaborate as potential increased capabilities does. Numerical simulation further suggests that prospects for successful collaboration over most scenarios (including operational) increase when a large, effective Islamist terrorist organization initiates collaboration with a smaller right‐wing group, as compared with the other scenarios considered. Although the small number of historical cases precludes robust statistical validation, the simulation results are supported by existing empirical evidence of collaboration between Islamists and right‐ or left‐wing extremists. The game‐theoretic approach, therefore, provides guidance regarding the circumstances under which such an unholy alliance of violent actors is likely to succeed.     

从启蒙者到依附者——“17年诗歌”诗人角色的易换

回望17年诗坛,我们在大多数诗歌千篇一律的声音里发现,那个自"五四"以来就置身于"启蒙"潮头的身影,在三十年后竟然成为政策的传声筒、政治的依附者。社会状况、读者对象、诗歌审美标准、诗人心态的改变,及其病态的"先锋情结",是这代诗人们最终选择"依附者"角色的至关重要的因素。     

低压及欠平衡钻井中注气量对井内压力的影响

以多相瞬变流理论为基础,建立了井筒内气液两相流动模型,并对低压欠平衡钻井中注气量对井内压力的影响关系和规律进行计算和分析。计算分析结果表明,注气量对井内压力的影响除与注气量本身大小有关外,还与井深、井眼与钻柱结构尺寸、井内液相流量和性质等因素密切相关。单纯增大注气量并不一定就必然会导致井内压力的降低,这取决于所给条件下构成井筒内气液两相流体的静液压力和流阻间的平衡关系。介绍的模型及方法对确定低压欠平衡钻井过程中各相关参数、地面压缩机组的配置、以及设计方案等有一定指导意义。     

基于网络文化视域的大学生政治社会化问题探究

随着科学技术的迅速发展,与网络密切相关的网络文化越来越受到人们的关注。网络文化是人类文明的划时代成果,它所包含的丰富的经济、政治、科技、教育、艺术等诸多信息对当代大学生政治社会化过程也会产生重要的影响。网络文化不仅对大学生政治社会化起着积极的促进作用,同时也对大学生政治社会化造成一定的负面影响。基于对网络文化的认识,必须坚持"依法治网"与"以德治网"相结合的原则,从而保证大学生顺利实现政治社会化。     

潘之恒《亘史》侠客形象研究

侠客是中国封建社会中的一部分特殊人群,是具有传奇色彩的英雄人物。明代徽州由于商品经济的发展,侠客文学体裁作品出现了创作高潮.这其中,安徽小说家潘之恒创作的笔记体小说《亘史》中塑造了大量性格鲜明、颇具特色的侠客形象。而那些女性侠客,更是以非凡的身手,细腻的情感,在传记文学史上为女性书写了浓墨重彩的一笔。     

Partial linear single-index models with additive distortion measurement errors

We study partial linear single-index models (PLSiMs) when the response and the covariates in the parametric part are measured with additive distortion measurement errors. These distortions are modeled by unknown functions of a commonly observable confounding variable. We use the semiparametric profile least-squares method to estimate the parameters in the PLSiMs based on the residuals obtained from the distorted variables and confounding variable. We also employ the smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty (SCAD) to select the relevant variables in the PLSiMs. We show that the resulting SCAD estimators are consistent and possess the oracle property. For the non parametric link function, we construct the simultaneous confidence bands and obtain the asymptotic distribution of the maximum absolute deviation between the estimated link function and the true link function. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods and a real dataset is analyzed for illustration.     

基于改进模糊聚类算法的灰色预测模型

目前研究的模糊C均值聚类算法(FCM)面临的最重要问题是初始值随机选取,导致其容易陷入局部最优,同时影响运算速度.而灰色预测GM(1,1)模型在形成预测公式时对初始值的选取也没有合理有效的方案.针对以上问题,文章提出坐标密度法,确定初始聚类中心,对FCM算法进行改进;接着提出运用改进的FCM求取GM(1,1)中数据的聚类中心,并把聚类中心作为初始值的方法;通过与已知算法进行比较验证了其可行性和有效性.     

考虑异质性行为的灾后应急物资动态调度优化

在以人道主义为本的应急救援活动中，不可忽视被救灾民和施救决策者们异质性行为的影响。一方面，将各灾民因救援物资需求未被及时满足而呈现的差异化心理痛苦度量成经济损失，并纳入应急救援调度的社会成本这一决策目标中；另一方面，在灾后物资调度决策中，关注具有异质性偏好的各应急决策者所展现出的不同救援态度。结合面向联合机会约束规划的动态供需平衡限制，最终构建一个考虑灾民和决策者们异质性行为的多阶段灾后救援物资分配和应急路径优化模型。采用2008年汶川地震为案例背景，应用遗传算法对模型求解和参数分析，将仿真结果与不考虑异质性行为的传统救援调度方案进行比较，得出一些结论为构建高效的应急救援体系提供有益参考。