京津风沙源治理工程生态影响及评估研究进展和展望

21世纪初期,随着生态文明建设战略的实施,全国开展了大规模的生态环境治理项目,随之而来的针对生态政策的绩效评价就成为学术界研究的热点问题。而把公共价值绩效评价方法和成本结构绩效评价方法整合到一起,发挥两种绩效评估模式的优势,弥补它们的不足,具有非常重要的理论意义。对此研究者分析了公共价值管理和交易成本经济学共同的理论基础,寻找打通两种绩效评价方法的理论依据,然后对生态治理政策成本结构绩效评价模型和公共价值绩效评价模型进行分析,构建整合两种评价方法的统一模型。它可以对公共价值绩效和成本结构绩效进行对比和校正,延长公共价值绩效值的时间序列,给出公共价值绩效和成本结构绩效内部结构的转换方法,并预测项目的公共价值绩效的变化。接着再以内蒙古典型地区四子王旗的草原禁牧政策为例,验证整合方法的可行性。     

论政治文明的文化选择

文化即人化,它是人类所创造的精神成果和物质成果的总和;文明是文化的结晶,是文化主体对人类文化中野蛮性、愚昧性不断扬弃的结果,是人类有目的、有选择地过滤人类文化、形成合理文化内核的过程。中国当前的政治文明建设,需要走出“精华”和“糟粕”的简单二分的误区,用外来文化中国化、传统文化现代化,来开辟中国文化发展之路。弱化暴力色彩,强化仁政效应,构建中国特色的政治文明。     

九十年代后中国电影海报设计的风格特征

电影海报除了能够提供电影的信息之外,从设计的角度来说,它还具有很强的装饰性和观赏性,并具有独特的表现形式和艺术设计规律。文章以20世纪90年代以来中国电影海报设计为研究对象,从电影海报的性质和功能入手,对90年代以来中国电影海报设计的风格特征作出简要概括。     

Perimeter-area ratio effects of urbanization intensity on forest characteristics,landscape patterns and their associations in Harbin City,Northeast China

To maximize the ecological services of urban forests, a better understanding of the effects of urbanization on urban forest characteristics, landscape metrics, and their associations is needed for landscape-related regulations in space-limited green infrastructure of metropolitan regions. In this study, Harbin, a typical fast-growing provincial-capital city in Northeast China, is used as a case study. Based on remote sensing images, field surveys, and correlation and variation partitioning analyses, we conclude that landscape characteristics and forest attributes have large variations among different urbanization intensity (UI) regions. Forest patch density (PD), landscape shape index, woody plants species richness, and the Shannon–Wiener index (H′) increased linearly, while stem section area and tree height decreased linearly with the increasing of UIs. UI had a greater influence on tree size and forest community attributes than the forest landscape pattern. Accordingly, any landscape regulation on forest attributes should be implemented according to UIs. In addition, Euclidean nearest neighbor distance(ENN-MN), mean perimeter-area ratio (PARA-MN), fractal dimension index(FRAC-MN), and PD could probably indicate forest attributes the most, e.g., the increase of PARA-MN may be accompanied with taller trees in low and heavy UI regions, but lower woody plants species evenness in low and medium UI regions. More diversified woody plants species, and afforested areas should be advocated in a low UI region, while in a heavy UI region, the conservation of large trees should be implemented. Our results highlight that the implementation of urban forest management should vary according to different urbanization regions to maximize ecological services.

     

朝阳神秘之旅

寻根东北佛源东北佛教文化“祖庭”凤凰山朝阳凤凰山拥有东北最早的佛教寺院,是当之无愧的东北佛教文化的“祖庭”,有中国惟一的塔寺结合的山岳景观。御赐皇封佑顺寺佑顺寺是藏传佛教寺院,佑顺寺的建筑布局呈“盘龙式”,乾隆皇帝两次回盛京祭祖,均在这里驻跸。百年宝寺关帝庙关     

Bayesian nonparametric modelling of the link function in the single-index model using a Bernstein–Dirichlet process prior

This paper proposes the use of the Bernstein–Dirichlet process prior for a new nonparametric approach to estimating the link function in the single-index model (SIM). The Bernstein–Dirichlet process prior has so far mainly been used for nonparametric density estimation. Here we modify this approach to allow for an approximation of the unknown link function. Instead of the usual Gaussian distribution, the error term is assumed to be asymmetric Laplace distributed which increases the flexibility and robustness of the SIM. To automatically identify truly active predictors, spike-and-slab priors are used for Bayesian variable selection. Posterior computations are performed via a Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs sampler using a truncation-based algorithm for stick-breaking priors. We compare the efficiency of the proposed approach with well-established techniques in an extensive simulation study and illustrate its practical performance by an application to nonparametric modelling of the power consumption in a sewage treatment plant.     

Lower bound of average centered L2-discrepancy for U-type designs

Uniform designs are widely used in various scientific investigations and industrial applications. By considering all possible level permutation of the factors, a connection between average centered L₂-discrepancy and generalized wordlength pattern for asymmetrical fractional factorial designs is derived. Moreover, we present new lower bounds to the average centered L₂-discrepancy for symmetrical and asymmetrical U-type designs. For illustration of the theoretical results, the lower bounds for symmetrical and asymmetrical U-type designs are tabulated, and numerical results indicate that our lower bounds behave well and can be recommended for use in practice.     

The laws of large numbers for Pareto-type random variables with infinite means

In this paper, we consider the laws of large numbers for NSD random variables satisfying Pareto-type distributions with infinite means. Based on the Pareto-Zipf distributions, some weak laws of large numbers for weighted sums of NSD random variables are obtained. Meanwhile, we show that a weak law for Pareto-Zipf distributions cannot be extended to a strong law. Furthermore, based on the two tailed Pareto distribution, a strong law of large numbers for weighed NSD random variables is presented. Our results extend the corresponding earlier ones.     

The UN Global Compact for Safe,Orderly and Regular Migration: Its Impact on Asia

This article focuses on the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (GCM), a landmark international document that builds on the momentum of a decade of initiatives at the international level on migration governance, and its impact on Asia from the perspective of South Asia, Southeast Asia, China, and South Korea. While none of these countries voted against the adoption of the GCM, there are significant differences in how individual countries approached the commitments made in the GCM. These perspectives were articulated in a webinar hosted by Metropolis Asia on 20 June 2018 and in governmental statements made at the UN international conference when the GCM was adopted. This article also discusses the challenges confronting the implementation of the GCM. While the Compact resulted from inclusive and intensive negotiations and many compromises, the road towards realizing its goals will be at least as challenging as the road that led to its adoption. In spite of these challenges, the GCM is a ground‐breaking representation of the first multilateral framework for migration governance. Its success rests upon the recognition that addressing the challenges and maximizing the benefits of migration require true international cooperation, renewed commitment and meaningful action on the commitments agreed to.     

Online crisis communication in a post-truth Chinese society: Evidence from interdisciplinary literature

Through a thematic content analysis of 118 journal articles from interdisciplinary fields, this study reviews the research trends of online crisis communication literature in a Chinese post-truth society, where objective facts play a diminishing role, and Chinese people are losing their trust, despite the best efforts of organizations to deal with fake news in crises. Results of this study disclose some unique crisis communication strategies (e.g., strategic distraction, rumor-rebuttal, fabrication, acting cute, and content censorship) in crises of China. Influential contextual factors such as the political system, cultural values, and media features are identified as well. Theoretical and practical implications of this study are discussed, and a greater picture of online crisis communication in contexts is posited for future research.