上海产业发展与人口增长的联动效应及其对人口调控政策的启示

近年由于特殊的政策因素,特大城市常住人口增长与人口调控再次引起各界关注和争议。以上海为例,研究基于经济社会统计数据的客观分析,以及典型产业区人口劳动力动态调研,发现伴随产业发展而形成的人口劳动力集聚效应已经进入相对下滑阶段,"以业控人"为主导的特大城市人口调控政策目标与实际效果也有可能背道而驰。在此基础上,提出对策建议,适时转换人口调控思路,加快收入分配、社会保障等制度建设,完善现居住地人口配套服务机制。     

我国劳动经济学研究回顾与展望

随着社会主义和谐社会的构建,民生问题得到越来越多的关注,我国劳动问题也随之成为研究热点。本文对我国2006-2013年的劳动经济学研究进行了回顾,发现研究内容紧随社会热点,学界为我国的就业、收入分配、农村剩余劳动力转移、人力资本等当前社会关注问题进行了经济分析与解释,推动了我国劳动经济研究在这些领域的显著进展。但是,受微观数据、研究方法等限制,在理论创新、研究范围和内容扩展以及研究规范性上,仍有欠缺。随着人口老龄化、多部劳动相关法律规章制度的实施等,未来劳动经济学的研究热点将会进一步扩展到老龄化带来的相关劳动力市场问题、政策法规的效果评估等方面。     

Privileged policies versus lack of care and engagement: the lives of retired veteran cadres in a residential community of Jinan Municipal Party Committee,China

Abstract

The Retirement System for Veteran Cadres (Lixiu) is one part of China’s dual-track retirement system. According to some official policies, retired veteran cadres should enjoy a number of privileges in terms of pension, health care, use of government vehicle, housing and peculiar political rights. Based on participant observation and semi-structured interview, the study looks into the life of the population in a residential community of Jinan Municipal Party Committee, Shandong Province. By incorporating Maslow’s hierarchy of needs theory, the study finds that in China, services for retired cadres still fall short of the expectations of policy. Establishment of ‘big communities’ with the idea of ageing-in-place is suggested.     

《论语》不同语篇类型的结构特征研究

学界普遍认同《论语》是孔子及其弟子的言论集.从现有文献上看,有关《论语》的语篇类型及其结构特征问题的系统研究不多.本文在系统功能语言学框架下探讨《论语》不同语篇类型及其结构特征.本文认为,《论语》的语篇类型可归纳为“引述”、“对话”和“描述”三大类,另外还有少数的“叙述”;不同语篇类型具有不同的结构特征.本文的研究结果可为我们后续进行《论语》各种语篇类型的汉英对比研究提供可借鉴的评估参数.     

Gender and Children's Housework Time in China: Examining Behavior Modeling in Context

Differentiated gender roles in adulthood are rooted in one's gender role socialization. In order to understand the persistence of gender inequalities in the domestic sphere, we need to examine the gendered patterns of children's housework time. Although researchers have identified behavior modeling as a major mechanism of gender role reproduction and characterized gender socialization as a contextually embedded process, few have investigated contextual variation in behavior modeling, particularly in non‐Western developing countries. Analyzing data from the China Family Panel Studies 2010, the author examined the differences in behavior modeling between boys and girls age 10–15 from 2‐parent families (N = 1,903) in rural and urban China. The results revealed distinctive gendered interplays in the way parental housework and employment behavior helps shape children's housework time. This analysis is a crucial illustration of how the distinctive sociocultural contexts of rural and urban China moderate the effects of housework‐behavior modeling on intergenerational gender role socialization.     

ON THE INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE'S SERVICE AND ENFORCEMENT

Built on the seminal work of Graetz et al. (1986), this study considers a model of tax compliance in which the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) services as well as audits taxpayers as in the real world. Taxpayers are uncertain about whether their incomes are eligible for deduction/exemption, and may seek advice from the taxpayer service provided by the IRS to mitigate the uncertainty. We show: (1) while the society's preferred quality of taxpayer service is likely to be sufficiently high, the IRS's preferred quality of taxpayer service is only at an intermediate level; and (2) the conflict between the society and the IRS tends to be intensified as the cost of tax audits becomes lower. Evidence in support of our results is addressed. We also extend our model to addressing the issue of corruption in tax administration and to considering a dynamic model. (JEL D82, H26, K42)     

Nonparametric multiple expectile regression via ER-Boost

Expectile regression [Newey W, Powell J. Asymmetric least squares estimation and testing, Econometrica. 1987;55:819–847] is a nice tool for estimating the conditional expectiles of a response variable given a set of covariates. Expectile regression at 50% level is the classical conditional mean regression. In many real applications having multiple expectiles at different levels provides a more complete picture of the conditional distribution of the response variable. Multiple linear expectile regression model has been well studied [Newey W, Powell J. Asymmetric least squares estimation and testing, Econometrica. 1987;55:819–847; Efron B. Regression percentiles using asymmetric squared error loss, Stat Sin. 1991;1(93):125.], but it can be too restrictive for many real applications. In this paper, we derive a regression tree-based gradient boosting estimator for nonparametric multiple expectile regression. The new estimator, referred to as ER-Boost, is implemented in an R package erboost publicly available at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/erboost/index.html. We use two homoscedastic/heteroscedastic random-function-generator models in simulation to show the high predictive accuracy of ER-Boost. As an application, we apply ER-Boost to analyse North Carolina County crime data. From the nonparametric expectile regression analysis of this dataset, we draw several interesting conclusions that are consistent with the previous study using the economic model of crime. This real data example also provides a good demonstration of some nice features of ER-Boost, such as its ability to handle different types of covariates and its model interpretation tools.     

Automatic clustering algorithm for fuzzy data

Coppi et al. [7 R. Coppi, P. D'Urso, and P. Giordani, Fuzzy and possibilistic clustering for fuzzy data, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 56 (2012), pp. 915–927. doi: 10.1016/j.csda.2010.09.013[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] applied Yang and Wu's [20 M.-S. Yang and K.-L. Wu, Unsupervised possibilistic clustering, Pattern Recognit. 30 (2006), pp. 5–21. doi: 10.1016/j.patcog.2005.07.005[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]] idea to propose a possibilistic k-means (PkM) clustering algorithm for LR-type fuzzy numbers. The memberships in the objective function of PkM no longer need to satisfy the constraint in fuzzy k-means that of a data point across classes sum to one. However, the clustering performance of PkM depends on the initializations and weighting exponent. In this paper, we propose a robust clustering method based on a self-updating procedure. The proposed algorithm not only solves the initialization problems but also obtains a good clustering result. Several numerical examples also demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed clustering method, especially the robustness to initial values and noise. Finally, three real fuzzy data sets are used to illustrate the superiority of this proposed algorithm.     

Stationary bootstrapping for panel cointegration tests under cross-sectional dependence

Stationary bootstrapping is applied to panel cointegration tests which are based on the ordinary least-squares estimator and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimator of the residual unit root. Large sample validity of stationary bootstrapping is established. A finite sample experiment reveals that size performances of the bootstrap tests are much less sensitive to cross-sectional correlation than those of existing tests and a test based on the SUR estimator has substantially better power than existing tests.     

自贸试验区与张江国家自主创新示范区联动发展研究

结合上海自贸试验区与张江自主创新示范区联动发展的基础条件和存在问题,两者未来联动发展的总体方向应是:聚焦科技与金融的联动,打造科技创新核心载体,形成“1+1＞2”的强辐射区域.为此,应加快对接战略规划的顶层设计,加快建立联动发展的协同机制,加快构建联动发展的平台载体.