元明时期中国与马八儿、琐里交通史新考

本文认为,元末汪大渊《岛夷志略》记载的马八儿屿指的是马八儿苏丹国.伯希和认为,西洋琐里国王别里提、琐里国王卜纳的是同一人,两国是同一国.本文认为,两国不是同一国,别里提、卜纳的都是马可波罗讲的马八儿王号Bandi的异译.永乐以后,南印度被维查耶那伽尔王朝统治,所以琐里不仅不见于正史,也不见于与郑和下西洋有关的史籍.前人提出,《元史》记载中的至元十八年马八儿王号“算弹”是苏丹的音译.本文认为应是sundara的音译.而延祐元年遣使的马八儿王昔剌木丁即Sayyid Jalal-ud-Din Ahsan.     

试析冷战后印度中亚政策的演变

从1991年中亚国家先后独立到现在,印度的中亚政策经历了三个发展阶段。从1991年至1998年,这一阶段印度中亚政策的主要任务是通过加强与新独立的中亚国家之间的接触,为印度与中亚关系的发展打下基础。从1998年至2001年,随着国际形势与印度自身发展的需要,中亚国家成为印度加快自身经济发展和打击极端主义与恐怖主义的重要合作伙伴。2001年至今,印度加大了对中亚地区的关注与投入,致力于加强与中亚国家在政治、经济、安全与文化诸领域的合作,印度在中亚的影响也随之增强。虽然印度与中亚国家关系的发展仍受到一些制约,但印度介入中亚事务越来越明确的态势值得关注。     

基于项目的JSP实训课程学习质量评价探索与实践

阐述了JSP实训课程"任务驱动、项目导向"的教学模式改革,构建了与之对应的以"教师、学生、企业"为评价主体、多种评价方式相结合的"三方"式学生学习质量评价模式,通过实例说明了如何运用这种模式来评价学生学习质量,总结了"三方"式评价模式的意义和作用,指出了课题进一步研究的方向。     

Robust importance sampling for some typical types of utility-based shortfall risk measures using exponential twisting and kernel density techniques

A robust algorithm for utility-based shortfall risk (UBSR) measures is developed by combining the kernel density estimation with importance sampling (IS) using exponential twisting techniques. The optimal bandwidth of the kernel density is obtained by minimizing the mean square error of the estimators. Variance is reduced by IS where exponential twisting is applied to determine the optimal IS distribution. Conditions for the best distribution parameters are derived based on the piecewise polynomial loss function and the exponential loss function. The proposed method not only solves the problem of sampling from the kernel density but also reduces the variance of the UBSR estimator.     

Allocation strategies of standby redundancies in series/parallel system

This article deals with the topic of optimal allocation of two standby redundancies in a two-component series/parallel system. There are two original components C₁ and C₂ which can be used to construct a series/parallel system, and two spares R₁ (same as C₁) and R₂ (different from both C₁ and C₂) at hand with them being standby redundancies so as to enhance the reliability level of the system. The goal for an engineer is to seek after the optimal allocation policy in this framework. It is shown that, for the series structure, the engineer should allocate R₂ to C₁ and R₁ to C₂ provided that C₁ (or R₁) performs either the best or worst among all the units; otherwise, the allocation policy should be reversed. For the parallel structure, the optimal allocation strategy is just opposed to that of series case. We also provide some numerical examples for illustrating the theoretical results.     

Three strings of inequalities among six Bayes estimators

We discover three interesting strings of inequalities among six Bayes estimators, where for the parameter space (0, 1), (0, ∞), and ( ? ∞, ∞), each case has a string of inequalities. The three strings of inequalities only depend on the loss functions, and the inequalities are independent of the chosen models and the used priors provided the Bayes estimators exist. Therefore, they exist in a general setting which makes them quite interesting. Finally, the numerical simulations exemplify the two strings of inequalities defined on (0, 1) and (0, ∞), and that there does not exist a string of inequalities among the six smallest posterior expected losses.     

Semiparametric estimation of treatment effect with density ratio model

In this study we propose a unified semiparametric approach to estimate various indices of treatment effect under the density ratio model, which connects two density functions by an exponential tilt. For each index, we construct two estimating functions based on the model and apply the generalized method of moments to improve the estimates. The estimating functions are allowed to be non smooth with respect to parameters and hence make the proposed method more flexible. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and illustrate the application with several simulations and two real data sets.     

Asymptotic normality of the local linear estimation of the conditional density for functional time-series data

This article focuses on the conditional density of a scalar response variable given a random variable taking values in a semimetric space. The local linear estimators of the conditional density and its derivative are considered. It is assumed that the observations form a stationary α-mixing sequence. Under some regularity conditions, the joint asymptotic normality of the estimators of the conditional density and its derivative is established. The result confirms the prospect in Rachdi et al. (2014 Rachdi, M., A. Laksaci, J. Demongeot, A. Abdali, and F. Madani. 2014. Theoretical and practical aspects of the quadratic error in the local linear estimation of the conditional density for functional data. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 73 :53–68.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and can be applied in time-series analysis to make predictions and build confidence intervals. The finite-sample behavior of the estimator is investigated by simulations as well.     

国有林生态效益补偿制度的缺失及其完善

长期以来,国有森林生态效益被无偿使用,森林经营者利益得不到保证,为保证国有林可持续发展经营,完善现行补偿制度刻不容缓。从法律管理的视角分析我国国有林生态效益补偿制度体系、补偿要素的内容、补偿的实施机制等方面的缺失,完善补偿制度应着眼于:国有林生态效益补偿法律制度立法目的与价值取向应该旨在协调国有林经营管护各方的利益,化解彼此间的利益冲突;维护社会公平,包括代内公平与代际公平;明确确定补偿范围,完善补偿要素;规范国有林生态效益补偿的行政管理体制,建立透明的国有林生态效益补偿信息公开制度、可持续的保障机制和完备的救济机制。