基于复杂系统的电力市场运营状态识别研究

基于电力市场的复杂特性及其演化规律,运用协同论,构建电力市场协同演化方程,并确定影响市场运营的主要因素;基于突变论构建势函数,划分市场运营的有序状态、警戒状态和临界状态,并提出判别规则,实现对电力市场运营状态的识别和预警,用2007年至2008年中国某区域电力市场的月度运营数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,该区域电力市场的序参量为结算电价和社会总剩余;在研究期内,电力市场出现警戒状态和有序状态,没有临界状态,且有75%的时间处于有序运营状态;结算电价和社会总剩余的综合结果偏低或偏高时,市场都处于警戒状态。结果符合实际情况,验证了该方法对电力市场运营状态识别和预警的有效性。     

“政策领域-时间维度”双重视角下新能源汽车产业政策央地协同研究

本文以2009—2018年间中央及地方（以北京市等四个地区为例）颁布的263项新能源汽车产业政策为研究样本,从实施领域角度,将产业政策分为财税支持、行业规范、规划引导、监督保障、其他措施等五类,经政策分解,将政策片段与新能源汽车产业链五个环节进行匹配;在此基础上,测度不同时期产业政策央地总体协同度与政策实施领域间的协同度,并通过逐步回归法,确定影响政策协同的各政策效力指标灵敏度。研究表明："中央-北京"和"中央-深圳"的政策措施协同趋势基本一致,产业价值链各环节发展较均衡,而"中央-上海"和"中央-江苏"的政策措施协同趋势基本一致,存在"重使用、轻研发、轻市场"等失调现象;四地区与中央政策措施的协同差异主要体现在研发、生产和回收环节,提升"政策引导"和"保障措施"指标的政策效力有助于提升央地协同水平。根据政策分析,未来政策制定需从优化中央政策推广方式和加强监管保障等政策措施着手,根据产业链不同环节状况适时调整政策措施。     

风俗视角与《诗经》的还原阐释

《诗经》因为被罩以神圣的光环而掩盖了它的原貌,也蒙受了种种附会和曲解。从风俗视角可以梳理出《诗经》文化背景的两个重要特征“诗以言志”的习尚和“礼乐救化”的传统,有助于对《诗经》的还原阐释,风俗视角还能使读者领略到《诗经》所展示的鲜活多彩的风俗画卷,感受“天籁之音”的艺术魅力,有利于《诗经》去圣返俗。     

A gold key to initiate a new situation in family planning work]

Because of the popularization of a responsible agricultural production system, the livilihood of peasants has been improving greatly, while the demands and needs of the general public are also increasing at the same time. Still under the influence of the traditional belief of carrying on one's family line and emphasis on having male children, married people prefer to have more childre, and the birth rate is now rising again. In order to solve this new problem, we need to teach the peasants national policies on population, land utilization, and food supply. In order to initiate a new situation in family planning work, we need to control this "gold key" of ideological education and propaganda. The emphasis should be placed on ideological education for cadres at all levels as well as the general public in order that they may understand the Party's strategy. Education on the national strategy should be combined with material interests of the peasants, and reward and punishment in production should also be linked up with that of family planning. Social measures are needed to reduce economic burdens of the peasants, offer better treatment for single-child households, and provide adequate care for old and retired people. Family planning projects should be consolidated and improved. Scientific management, facilities and techniques for birth control, compensation for working personnel in family planning, and other practical problems deserve immediate attention and solution.     

一种现实主义和功能主义的国家观——读莱昂·狄骥的《法律与国家》

"国家主权论"是近代以来占据主流地位的公法理论,强调国家有凌驾于法律之上的特权.法国公法学家狄骥却独辟蹊径,提出了一种兼具现实主义和功能主义特色的全新理论公共服务论,比较成功地解决了国家受制于法律约束的基本问题,为现代公法奠定了坚实的理论基础.     

Three Likelihood-Based Methods For Mean and Covariance Structure Analysis With Nonnormal Missing Data

Survey and longitudinal studies in the social and behavioral sciences generally contain missing data. Mean and covariance structure models play an important role in analyzing such data. Two promising methods for dealing with missing data are a direct maximum-likelihood and a two-stage approach based on the unstructured mean and covariance estimates obtained by the EM-algorithm. Typical assumptions under these two methods are ignorable nonresponse and normality of data. However, data sets in social and behavioral sciences are seldom normal, and experience with these procedures indicates that normal theory based methods for nonnormal data very often lead to incorrect model evaluations. By dropping the normal distribution assumption, we develop more accurate procedures for model inference. Based on the theory of generalized estimating equations, a way to obtain consistent standard errors of the two-stage estimates is given. The asymptotic efficiencies of different estimators are compared under various assumptions. We also propose a minimum chi-square approach and show that the estimator obtained by this approach is asymptotically at least as efficient as the two likelihood-based estimators for either normal or nonnormal data. The major contribution of this paper is that for each estimator, we give a test statistic whose asymptotic distribution is chi-square as long as the underlying sampling distribution enjoys finite fourth-order moments. We also give a characterization for each of the two likelihood ratio test statistics when the underlying distribution is nonnormal. Modifications to the likelihood ratio statistics are also given. Our working assumption is that the missing data mechanism is missing completely at random. Examples and Monte Carlo studies indicate that, for commonly encountered nonnormal distributions, the procedures developed in this paper are quite reliable even for samples with missing data that are missing at random.     

黄河林场、北园、千佛山鸟类的生态调查

９４ 年５ 月对黄河林场,北园,千佛山进行了鸟类调查,共见到鸟１８６０ 只,隶属８目２０ 科４０ 种。三个生境的气候不同,鸟类的分布也不同。从群落的多样性看,黄河林场＞ 北园＞ 千佛山;从群落的稳定性看,黄河林场＞ 北园＞ 千佛山;从群落的相似性看,千佛山与黄河林场的相似性指数最大。鸟类是大自然不可缺少的组成部分,在维持生态平衡上起重要的作用,因此,我们应该保护鸟类。     

简易的双向多因子分析方法

本文从有关教育成果经济贡献问题谈起,主要目的在于从劳动生产力中一项重要因素在国民收入或国民生产总值动态中的作用入手,说明一种可以适用动态研究的简易分析方法。一、把横向同纵向动态分析结合起来教育成果经济贡献是属于劳动生产率的一种横向(个体差异)的特征。在教育成果中所包括的能力增量,遇到适当条件,会成为较高劳动生产力的因素。正如其他类似的经济分析一样,从生产成果逆算劳动生产率时,可以找到这顶教育成果相对作用的经济效益表现。这     

“比较视野中的灾难与激变:感知与应对”国际人类学工作坊报告会综述

“比较视野中的灾难与激变:感知与应对”国际人类学工作坊于2015年10月16日-18日在西南民族大学举行了工作报告会,来自世界8个国家和地区的30余家学术机构的40位专家学者围绕着“人文视野下的灾难与激变”、“有关灾难与激变的理论反思”、“在灾难与激变中反思社会-政治关系”、“灾后重建中的社区恢复与文化重塑”、“关于灾难的记忆、叙述与情感”、“灾难的感知与呈现”、“关于灾难的艺术呈现”这7个专题进行了深入的学术交流探讨.