民国时期小学卫生教育初探——以天津为例

民国时期,小学卫生教育被纳入学校课程体系,卫生教科书纷纷问世;学校不仅向学童传授卫生知识,也进行卫生行为习惯培养与意志养成、健康生活方式训练与健体强国理想的陶冶等等,并取得了积极的教育效果.这段久未发掘的小学卫生教育历史,对于今天的小学卫生教育仍有借鉴作用.     

国家意识形态语境下的高校思想政治教育

思想政治教育的实质是国家意识形态输出,但这种输出活动面临着国家意识形态和社会生活现象。以及个体经验世界两极化的困难,问题在于国家意识形态疏离了社会生活世界,解决这一问题的办法就在于将国家意识形态社会生活化。本文从历史分析的角度。阐述了思想政治教育的社会生活化演进趋势,并以高等学校思想政治教育为例,分析了当前作为国家意识形态的社会主义核心价值体系在高校这一特定社会生活世界存在的问题．揭示了其中的影响要素,并提出了国家意识形态社会生活化的“五进”路径。     

中国城乡居民年龄别消费模式量化与分析

文章采用2010年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据量化分析年龄别居民消费模式。针对同类研究只采用年龄变量作为自变量的不足,在经典的需求和消费函数基础上扩展年龄变量构建计量模型,获得了更好的解释力和准确性。基于计量分析结果刻画了分年龄、性别的中国城乡居民消费模式,并进行城乡比较。研究发现,居民家庭消费生命周期中存在30~34岁及45~49岁两个消费高峰;城乡居民消费差距最大的是高龄老人;农村老人在高龄阶段的医疗保健消费明显下降;农村中年妇女的医疗保健支出低于男性。研究认为,应从政策层面有针对性地加大对特定年龄性别人群的扶助力度;同时,未来产业规划应充分考虑人口结构变动因素的影响。     

Quantitative Analysis on the Impact of Urbanisation on Chinese Population Aging

This paper systematically studies the impact of fertility, mortality, initial age structure and rural-urban migration on population aging in rural and urban China from 2000 to 2010. The results show that urbanisation plays a crucial role in population aging in both rural and urban areas and its inf luence is closely linked to the age pattern of the migrants. One third of young rural population transformed into urban population during that period. The contribution of rural-urban migration to population aging in rural areas is 43.4 percent, which is higher than any inf luences from population’s natural changes, and is dominant in population aging in the countryside. Rural-urban migration contributes-118.0 percent to population aging in urban areas by reducing the proportion of aged population and its influence was only lower than that of the initial age structure. The impact of urbanisation on population aging in towns is relatively limited. Among factors from population’s natural changes, the inf luence of the initial age structure is higher than those from changes of mortality and fertility. The paper discusses the causes and developmental trends of impact of urbanisation on population aging between rural and urban areas, and addresses some policy recommendations to deal with socio-economic challenges.     

A Bayesian sequential design with binary outcome

Several researchers have proposed solutions to control type I error rate in sequential designs. The use of Bayesian sequential design becomes more common; however, these designs are subject to inflation of the type I error rate. We propose a Bayesian sequential design for binary outcome using an alpha‐spending function to control the overall type I error rate. Algorithms are presented for calculating critical values and power for the proposed designs. We also propose a new stopping rule for futility. Sensitivity analysis is implemented for assessing the effects of varying the parameters of the prior distribution and maximum total sample size on critical values. Alpha‐spending functions are compared using power and actual sample size through simulations. Further simulations show that, when total sample size is fixed, the proposed design has greater power than the traditional Bayesian sequential design, which sets equal stopping bounds at all interim analyses. We also find that the proposed design with the new stopping for futility rule results in greater power and can stop earlier with a smaller actual sample size, compared with the traditional stopping rule for futility when all other conditions are held constant. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real data set and compare the results with traditional designs.     

An adaptive-to-model test for partially parametric single-index models

Residual marked empirical process-based tests are commonly used in regression models. However, they suffer from data sparseness in high-dimensional space when there are many covariates. This paper has three purposes. First, we suggest a partial dimension reduction adaptive-to-model testing procedure that can be omnibus against general global alternative models although it fully use the dimension reduction structure under the null hypothesis. This feature is because that the procedure can automatically adapt to the null and alternative models, and thus greatly overcomes the dimensionality problem. Second, to achieve the above goal, we propose a ridge-type eigenvalue ratio estimate to automatically determine the number of linear combinations of the covariates under the null and alternative hypotheses. Third, a Monte-Carlo approximation to the sampling null distribution is suggested. Unlike existing bootstrap approximation methods, this gives an approximation as close to the sampling null distribution as possible by fully utilising the dimension reduction model structure under the null model. Simulation studies and real data analysis are then conducted to illustrate the performance of the new test and compare it with existing tests.     

我国异质性产业体系低碳化发展的实现路径及其影响因素

本文建立了一个异质性产业体系低碳化发展路径选择的分析框架,通过超越对数形式的随机前沿生产函数,测算了我国29个省区产业体系生产技术及其效率和生产规模效率,以及能源使用技术及其效率和碳减排技术及其效率,并针对不同类型产业体系的低碳化发展提出政策建议.结果表明,我国异质性产业体系可以通过不同的结构升级和技术进步的选择形成适合于自身产业体系特征的低碳化发展路径.     

模糊变权组合预测方法研究

在不确定环境组合预测中,用模糊权重系数更能体现各单项预测方法的客观表现.文章提出一种新的权重系数为三角模糊数的组合预测方法.首先建立以组合预测精确度指数最小为准则的模糊加权组合预测模型,为了避免样本数据中极端值对模型的影响,对模型进行改进,提出带有0-1变量的模糊加权组合预测模型.进一步考虑到单项预测方法在不同时刻的表现有所差异,建立基于诱导有序模糊加权平均(IOFWA)算子的模糊变权组合预测模型,该模型不仅能克服极端值的影响,而且具有更高的预测精确度.并实证验证了该方法的适用性和灵活性.     

The Legal Regulation of Irrational Elements in the Operations of Boards of Directors

The operating processes of boards of directors are delicate and complex, so corporate legislation cannot simply equate board structure law with board governance law. It is therefore necessary to start from China’s actual conditions and grasp the operating processes of Chinese boards with a sober appreciation of the irrational elements in their operating mechanisms. Board governance has entered a new stage of institutionalization, and the law should shift from its emphasis on structure to give equal attention to structure and process in optimizing institutional structure. In the construction of board operating mechanisms, we should treat differently such “living laws” as customs, experiences and traditions, give full play to the functionality of boards’ strategic choices, and provide legal regulation of irrational elements, so as to distinguish between different roles, develop consensus, select strong points and improve efficiency. We should build control over board operational procedures, improve the system of functional allocation, correct assessment mechanisms, develop a mechanism for judicial scrutiny of the affective relationships in society and curb such behavioral tendencies as relational identity, structural bias and group polarization, with a view to controlling such “living laws” within the framework of the basic values and principles of board governance.     

投资东盟的“国家风险”识别因素分析——基于桂籍华商的调查

桂籍华商与东盟各国政治、经济、文化往来交流频繁,对于研究投资东盟的国家风险因素更具识别价值.文章通过对桂籍海外华商东盟投资国家风险识别的因素进行问卷调查及分析,结果显示:海外投资的国家风险识别因素主要涉及政治、经济、文化与事件特征等四大类因素影响.同时,桂籍华商与专家学者在东盟投资国家风险识别因素的认定上存在较大差异.积极利用“21世纪海上丝绸之路”建设拓展桂籍华商对东盟投资的国家风险识别能力,建立桂籍华商东盟投资国家风险的防控机制,完善桂籍华商相关组织机构,有利于更好地防范和应对国家风险.