An approximation method for bivariate and multvariate normal equiprobability contours

This paper presents a very simple approximation, having “graph” accuracy, for calculating bivariate normal probability contours. Such contours are useful in simultaneous inference and other applications. This method is then adapted to approximate roughly bivariate and multivariate normal union probabilities.     

Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models

A hedonic model of automobile prices that takes gasoline costs into account is developed and used to examine whether gasoline price increases (especially those related to the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks) changed consumer evaluations of the relative qualities of used cars in the U.S. during 1970–1981. We test the null hypothesis that the characteristics' coefficients remained constant over time. It is rejected if gasoline costs are excluded from the model but not if they are included. Alternative approaches are developed to show that the gasoline price increases alone can explain much of the observed changes in the coefficients.     

Assessment of a Brief CES-D Measure for Depression in Homebound Medically Ill Older Adults

Black elderly individuals represent one of the most disadvantaged groups in the United States in terms of income levels, health problems, and access to supportive services. This paper describes four major factors to be considered by social service providers to focus their programs toward needs of the black elderly population in their local communities. A research project designed to examine the social service needs and service utilization of the black elderly in a Midwestern community indicated that the following factons hould be considered if effective service programs are to be implemented: (1) Negotiation Initiative, (2) Responsible Research, (3) Symbolism, (4) Modeling.     

‘Another Europe is possible’? Labour and social movements at the European social forum

The first European Social Forum (ESF) held in Florence, Italy from 6 to 10 November 2002 brought together a diverse array of so-called ‘anti-capitalist’ movements including trade unions, new, radical unions and social movements to contest the agenda of neoliberalism as it is presented within and beyond processes of European integration. This article evaluates the ESF and the possibilities for cooperation between labour and social movements in forming joint strategies against neoliberalism. It is often assumed—rather than demonstrated—that established trade unions are an obstacle to more radical contestatory practices of direct-action social movement resistance. With detailed empirical analysis, the article assesses whether there was a continuation of reformist practices within unionist activities at the ESF allied with a focus on the often-contrary sensibilities of social movement opposition. The activities and joint strategies of labour and social movements at the ESF are therefore examined, not least their resistance to both neoliberalism and its ultimate extra-economic enforcement through military power as evidenced by the war on Iraq. Whilst conclusions about the efficacy of future cooperation are cautious it appears that the horizons of resistance are expanding not only within Europe but also at the global level.     

Dynamic Female Labor Supply

The increase in female employment and participation rates is one of the most dramatic changes to have taken place in the economy during the last century. However, while the employment rate of married women more than doubled during the last 50 years, that of unmarried women remained almost constant. To empirically analyze these trends, we estimate a female dynamic labor supply model using an extended version of Eckstein and Wolpin (1989) to compare the various explanations in the literature for the observed trends. This dynamic model provides a much better fit to the life‐cycle employment pattern than a static version of the model and a standard static reduced form model (Heckman (1979)). The main finding using the dynamic model is that the rise in education levels accounts for about 33 percent of the increase in female employment, and the rise in wages and narrowing of the gender wage gap account for another 20 percent, while about 40 percent remains unexplained by observed household characteristics. We show that this unexplained portion can be empirically attributed to cohort‐specific changes in preferences or the costs of child‐rearing and household maintenance. Finally, the decline in fertility and the increase in divorce rates account for only a small share of the increase in female employment rates.     

Are there children to educate for peace in conflict‐ridden areas? A critical essay on peace and coexistence education

In this paper, I reflect on the education that is being conducted in two Israeli schools, often held up as exemplary, that have the declared educational aim of cultivating tolerance and recognition of otherness. What is ‘going on’ with those presumed to be the primary beneficiaries (the children studying at these schools) of an integrated educational enterprise? Should the focus for future peace be on these children at all. I take a critical look at the way we are attempting to forge a peaceful future through our young.     

The impossibility of experimental elicitation of subjective probabilities

We show that if decision makers may have stakes in certain events then the experimental elicitation of their subjective probabilities of these events is impossible.We thank Eyal Sulganik for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.