The impossibility of experimental elicitation of subjective probabilities

We show that if decision makers may have stakes in certain events then the experimental elicitation of their subjective probabilities of these events is impossible.We thank Eyal Sulganik for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

A note on measuring the degree of dependence between two discrete random variables measured on a nominal scale

This paper discusses some of the problematic aspects of the term “dependence” and suggests a measure of a special kind of association - complete dependence - between two discrete random variables measured on a nominal scale.     

On the Limit of the Generalized Binomial Distribution

ABSTRACT

In this article we investigate the limit of the Generalized Binomial Distribution that results from correlated Bernoulli processes as the number of trials goes to infinity. For a correlation factor less than or equal to one half, we show, under certain assumptions, that the limit distribution is the standardized normal. For a correlation factor greater than one half, we find empirically that the limit is different from the standardized normal distribution.     

Integrating mental health parity for homebound older adults under the medicare home health care benefit

Despite high rates of mental illness, very few homebound older adults receive treatment. Comorbid mental illness exacerbates physical health conditions, reduces treatment adherence, and increases dependency and medical costs. Although effective treatments exist, many home health agencies lack capacity to effectively detect and treat mental illness. This article critically analyzes barriers within the Medicare home health benefit that impede access to mental health treatment. Policy, practice, and research recommendations are made to integrate mental health parity in home health care. In particular, creative use of medical social work can improve detection and treatment of mental illness for homebound older adults.     

Continuity and Discontinuity of Violent and Nonviolent Behavior: Toward a Classification of Male Adolescent Immigrants from the Former Soviet Union in Israel

Abstract

This article examines the perceptions of male adolescent immigrants to Israel from the former Soviet Union (FSU) and what accounts for their using or refraining from violence. A grounded theoretical classification of four groups relating to continuity and discontinuity of violent and nonviolent behavior is presented and reasons provided for these behaviors in the host country, compared with the country of origin. Each group is described and analyzed by inductive parameters relating to self-perception, immigration, attitudes toward violence, and identification and acceptance of norm differences. Findings are based on semistructured interviews with 40 male adolescents who immigrated from the FSU to Israel. Youth who have immigrated due to ideological reasons, had control over the decision to emigrate, or were able to identify norm differences between the two countries adjusted well and were nonviolent in the receiving country. Youth whose families immigrated due to pragmatic considerations, who had little or no control over the decision to emigrate, had difficulty adjusting, or preferred to live by the norms they were used to in the FSU tended to be involved in violent behavior. The findings are presented in a grounded theoretical model and discussed in the context of theoretical concepts of “uprooting of meaning” for the youth in each of the four groups.     

Detecting a Change in the Correlation Coefficient in a Sequence of Bivariate Normal Variables

We consider the problem of testing the hypothesis that the correlation coefficient is stable in a sequence of n observations of independent, bivariate normal random variables against the alternative that the correlation coefficient changes after an unknown point t(t < n). We propose an estimate of the changepoint t and report on power comparisons between the commonly used test for this problem and our proposed test. Some applications to finance are discussed.     

A generalized binomial distribution

A new generalization of the binomial distribution is introduced that allows dependence between trials, nonconstant probabilities of success from trial to trial, and which contains the usual binomial distribution as a special case. Along with the number of trials and an initial probability of ‘success’, an additional parameter that controls the degree of correlation between trials is introduced. The resulting class of distributions includes the binomial, unirnodal distributions, and bimodal distributions. Formulas for the moments, mean, and variance of this distribution are given along with a method for fitting the distribution to sample data.     

Lay persons' emotional reactions toward an abused elderly person

This study examined lay persons' emotional reactions to abuse, with special attention to two types of disease: Alzheimer's disease and osteoporosis. A total of 169 adults (mean age = 60) were interviewed face-to-face using a vignette methodology. Although the majority of the participants found the vignette to describe a situation of abuse, one-quarter did not consider it an abusive situation. The person described in the vignette elicited more positive than negative emotions, with a high percentage of participants expressing sympathy, desire to help, and concern. The various emotional reactions to abuse are associated with different correlates.     

Political participation: A comparative view of Israeli and American youth

This study explored the ways in which adolescents in Israel and the United States perceived government, politics, and public affairs. A series of open-ended interviews were conducted with approximately 300 high school students in each country immediately prior to the national elections in 1980–1981. Differences were found in regard to the extent to which the young people felt affected by and capable of affecting the larger political system, the extent to which voting was viewed as an important rite of passage to adulthood, and the extent to which they perceived having real choices in candidates and parties, with Israeli youth generally demonstrating more engagement in national governmental affairs. Finally, the conditions and factors that were likely to lead adolescents toward concern, interest, and participation in public affairs were offered.