Defender–Attacker Decision Tree Analysis to Combat Terrorism

We propose a methodology, called defender–attacker decision tree analysis, to evaluate defensive actions against terrorist attacks in a dynamic and hostile environment. Like most game‐theoretic formulations of this problem, we assume that the defenders act rationally by maximizing their expected utility or minimizing their expected costs. However, we do not assume that attackers maximize their expected utilities. Instead, we encode the defender's limited knowledge about the attacker's motivations and capabilities as a conditional probability distribution over the attacker's decisions. We apply this methodology to the problem of defending against possible terrorist attacks on commercial airplanes, using one of three weapons: infrared‐guided MANPADS (man‐portable air defense systems), laser‐guided MANPADS, or visually targeted RPGs (rocket propelled grenades). We also evaluate three countermeasures against these weapons: DIRCMs (directional infrared countermeasures), perimeter control around the airport, and hardening airplanes. The model includes deterrence effects, the effectiveness of the countermeasures, and the substitution of weapons and targets once a specific countermeasure is selected. It also includes a second stage of defensive decisions after an attack occurs. Key findings are: (1) due to the high cost of the countermeasures, not implementing countermeasures is the preferred defensive alternative for a large range of parameters; (2) if the probability of an attack and the associated consequences are large, a combination of DIRCMs and ground perimeter control are preferred over any single countermeasure.     

Coaching und Mentoring

The program “Mentoring for female junior executives at schools” in Hamburg has the goal of recruiting more female executives for schools in Hamburg. As a headmaster of a high school the author has attended this program as a mentor. She discusses the following questions: What are the differences between mentoring and coaching? Where are the limits of mentoring? When is coaching the better method? The main result is, that the mentor has to be very attentively of his position as a member of the organization. He has to decide, if he can advise the mentee for example in conflicts with superiors or if a coach could do a better job. A missing link in the mentoring program is the analysis of the culture of organizations, because this is an important factor for a successful start into the new function.     

The disinterested state: negative diasporic policy as an expression of state inclusion and national exclusion

ABSTRACT

This article engages with the understudied phenomenon of the ‘disinterested, denouncing’ diaspora state (Levitt, P., and N. G. Schiller. 2004. “Conceptualizing Simultaneity: A Transnational Social Field Perspective on Society.” International Migration Review 38 (3): 1002–1039. doi:10.1111/j.1747-7379.2004.tb00227.x) or ‘indifferent’ diaspora state (Ragazzi, F. 2009. “Governing Diasporas.” International Political Sociology 3 (4): 378–397. doi:10.1111/j.1749-5687.2009.00082.x). Focusing on U.S. citizens abroad, the article argues that there is negative diasporic outreach on the part of the state – ‘disinterested’ from the state's perspective, but ‘denouncing’ from that of the diaspora. Negative diasporic outreach is exemplified by the 2010 FATCA legislation, which sought to root out tax evaders resident in the U.S., but has, instead, affected millions of American emigrants through increased financial control and the repercussions of those policies, and has resulted in sharply higher citizenship renunciation figures. Impact on an American diaspora was not considered in the law's proposal, debate and passage into law. Second, the article argues that this negative diasporic outreach, in combination with the continued facilitation of the right to vote, is a reflection of the inclusion of these American emigrants in the American state, but their simultaneous exclusion from the American nation.     

We are not in control—embrace uncertainty and trust in what emerges. Peter Senge on the legacy and future of Change Management

Gruppe. Interaktion. Organisation. Zeitschrift für Angewandte Organisationspsychologie (GIO) - Peter Senge is a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management and founder of...     

The Shifting Meanings of Popular Engagement in Swedish Society

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - The aim of this article is to contribute to the Swedish debate on popular engagement by studying changes in popular...     

Linking Migration Intentions with Flows: Evidence and Potential Use

In the absence of reliable, internationally available migration flow data necessary for statistical forecasting, policymakers increasingly turn to survey data on emigration intentions to evaluate future migration trends. The important assumption – i.e. that there is a measurable and systematic relationship between the intention to migrate and actual migration – has not been firmly established at the international level. We examine the association between estimated population averages of emigration intentions and official migration flow data based on data for more than 160 countries. The results show a strong association between emigration intentions and recorded bilateral flows to industrialized countries, as well as between intentions and aggregated out‐migration. The results provide policymakers with a reliability assessment of survey data on emigration intentions and encourage future attempts to incorporate survey data in formal statistical migration forecasting models.     

Could gonadal and adrenal androgen deficiencies contribute to the depressive symptoms in men with systolic heart failure?

Background: Testosterone (TT) and dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS) are neurosteroids and their deficiencies constitute the hormone risk factors promoting the development of depression in elderly otherwise healthy men. We investigated the link between hypogonadism and depression in accordance with age and concomitant diseases in men with systolic HF using the novel scale previously dedicated for elderly population.

Methods: We analysed the prevalence of depression and severity of depressive symptoms in population of 226 men with systolic HF (40–80 years) compared to 379 healthy peers. The severity of depression was assessed using the Polish long version of Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS).

Results: In men aged 40–59 years the severity of depressive symptoms was greater in NYHA classes III–IV compared to NYHA classes I–II and reference group. In men aged 60–80 years depressive symptoms were more severe in NYHA class III-IV compared to controls (all p?≤?0.001). In multivariate logistic regression model in men aged 40–59 years advanced NYHA class was associated with higher prevalence of mild depression (OR?=?2.14, 95%CI: 1.07–4.29) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with higher prevalence of severe depression (OR?=?69.1, 95%CI: 2.11–2264.3). In men aged 60–80 years advanced NYHA class and TT deficiency were related to higher prevalence of mild depression (respectively: OR?=?2.9, 95%CI: 1.3–6.4; OR?=?3.6, 95%CI: 1.2–10.63).

Conclusion: TT deficiency, COPD and advanced NYHA class were associated with higher prevalence of depression in men with systolic HF.     

Contract design and insurance fraud: an experimental investigation

This paper experimentally examines the impact of contract design on insurance fraud. We test how fraud behavior varies for insurance contracts with full coverage, a straight deductible or claim-dependent premiums (bonus-malus contracts), in a setup where rational and selfish individuals have an incentive to always claim the maximum possible indemnity. We find a substantial impact of contractual arrangements: Deductible contracts lead to a greater extent to claim build-up than full coverage contracts. In contrast, bonus-malus contracts that entail the same net gains from fraud as deductible contracts do not increase claim build-up. Thus, our results indicate that bonus-malus contracts may be superior to deductible contracts for behavioral reasons.