人口流动对基督教全球传播的影响

基督教流动人口是基督教在全球传播过程中的关键因素。在基督教存在的前五个世纪,广泛的人口流动将基督教变成了全球化的信仰。广泛的人口流动在其它主要的世界宗教在世界各地的传播过程中也发挥了重要作用,但是,就基督教来说,流动可能是这种信仰固有的因素。基督教超越罗马帝国成为全球性信仰是个非常复杂的过程,包含许多不同类型的人口流动。跨国界的领袖们、俘虏、难民和流浪者、商人是人口流动的四种主要类型。虽然,东部教会传教的成功是短暂的,但是东部教会在第一个千年形成的移民传教模式无疑为21世纪的基督教提供了典范。基督教在过去的两三个世纪里再次全球化,基督信仰作为新的中心在非洲、拉丁美洲和亚洲的某些地区出现,表明"人口流动"在基督教全球传播过程中的作用比以前更加明显。当代基督教的全球化与早期基督教的全球化在发展道路上有很大不同,但有一点是不变的,即基督教的全球化仍将主要依靠流动者的行动和决策。     

从国际关系社会学到世界政治社会学

形成于20世纪下半叶的国际关系社会学是社会学的研究方向之一.其实质是将社会学的研究方法应用于国际关系研究.然而,国际关系社会学却没能成为独立的社会学门类,很多国家仍将其归属于国际关系理论范畴.随着国际进程快速发展与科学知识不断激增,出现了世界政治社会学这一新的社会学方向,并有成为独立的社会学门类的趋势.     

A simple two-stage design for quantitative responses with application to a study in diabetic neuropathic pain

Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to be stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase II and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail.     

On the Assessment of Monte Carlo Error in Simulation-Based Statistical Analyses

Statistical experiments, more commonly referred to as Monte Carlo or simulation studies, are used to study the behavior of statistical methods and measures under controlled situations. Whereas recent computing and methodological advances have permitted increased efficiency in the simulation process, known as variance reduction, such experiments remain limited by their finite nature and hence are subject to uncertainty; when a simulation is run more than once, different results are obtained. However, virtually no emphasis has been placed on reporting the uncertainty, referred to here as Monte Carlo error, associated with simulation results in the published literature, or on justifying the number of replications used. These deserve broader consideration. Here we present a series of simple and practical methods for estimating Monte Carlo error as well as determining the number of replications required to achieve a desired level of accuracy. The issues and methods are demonstrated with two simple examples, one evaluating operating characteristics of the maximum likelihood estimator for the parameters in logistic regression and the other in the context of using the bootstrap to obtain 95% confidence intervals. The results suggest that in many settings, Monte Carlo error may be more substantial than traditionally thought.     

历史分析与比较政治

本文讨论了比较政治学中历史研究的主要分析方法.第一类是因果分析法,包括横截面分析法和样本内分析法.第二类是时序分析法,包括对路径依赖和发展顺序的分析.本文认为,历史分析与众不同的分析方法使它成为比较政治研究中有力的分析工具.     

丹托、历史与人类生存的悲剧

历史哲学是当代哲学的灰姑娘,哲学家们从不认为历史哲学家处理的主题关乎任何重大的理论旨趣和紧迫性。在他们眼里,历史哲学关心的问题无非就是哲学家们在别处取得的成果如何能够或者应该怎样运用到历史写作领域中,而且当代历史哲学家在改变其同事所给予的较低评价方面也少有作为。本文将论证丹托在持此种观点的历史哲学家中是一个例外,因为他关于表现的哲学可以帮助我们理解文本是如何与其对象相联系的。(20世纪)语言哲学的主要缺点无疑就是,它从不费心去探究文本的哲学奥秘。历史写作是一座哲学金矿,在这点上我们必须感谢丹托的提醒。     

Time to listen: strategies to improve hospital-based postnatal care

BACKGROUND: In Australia and internationally, women report high levels of dissatisfaction with hospital-based postnatal care. AIM: To design and implement strategies to improve hospital-based postnatal care at a Sydney metropolitan hospital. METHOD: This was an Action Research study. In Phase One, midwives considered the literature and participated in group discussions and interviews to determine their perceptions of postnatal care and the factors that facilitate or hinder the provision of quality care. In Phase Two, midwives participated in 12 working group meetings to design strategies to improve care. RESULTS: Several important principles of postnatal care were described, including building a relationship with women, meeting their individual needs, being flexible in approach and providing continuity of care. 'Listening to women', 'being there,' and 'normalising experiences and expectations' were believed to be critical to achieving these principles. A key strategy 'One to One Time' was designed to provide women with an uninterrupted period of time each day with a midwife who was available to listen to their needs and concerns and discuss issues related to their health and that of their baby. CONCLUSION: Midwives designed and implemented strategies that they believed would improve in-hospital postnatal care.     

中小企业服务体系建设与信息咨询业发展──常州市中小企业问卷调查

苏南的中小企业在市场竞争的压力下,已经从数量扩张向体制改革、结构调整、技术创新和布局集中转变,但经营状况不容乐观。培育中小企业社会化服务体系,加强与完善中小企业立法,改善中小企业的融资环境,帮助中小企业充分利用信息咨询系统进行决策和管理,对中小企业的持续稳定发展具有重要意义。