重大突发公共卫生事件背景下人道主义供应链管理研究进展

重大突发公共卫生事件发生后,为了降低病毒传播风险,减轻事件带来的负面影响,如何设计高效的人道主义供应链显得尤为重要。首先,从生活物资、医疗物资和疫苗三个维度,梳理了重大突发公共卫生事件背景下应急物资管理研究进展。其次,从路径规划、选址-运输两个方面,总结了重大突发公共卫生事件背景下灾害垃圾管理研究现状。再次,根据任务类别,剖析了重大突发公共卫生事件背景下人力资源管理研究现状。最后,从顶层设计、应急物资、灾害垃圾、人力资源管理四个方面,给出了人道主义供应链管理未来的研究方向。结果表明：在重大突发公共卫生事件背景下,人道主义供应链管理顶层设计、应急物资管理体系数字化转型升级路径、基于全局与多主体视角的灾害垃圾管理问题、基于多维度的社会力量管理问题都是未来值得研究的主题。     

A basis approach to goodness-of-fit testing in recurrent event models

A class of tests for the hypothesis that the baseline hazard function in Cox's proportional hazards model and for a general recurrent event model belongs to a parametric family C identical with {lambda(0)(.; xi): xi in Xi} is proposed. Finite properties of the tests are examined via simulations, while asymptotic properties of the tests under a contiguous sequence of local alternatives are studied theoretically. An application of the tests to the general recurrent event model, which is an extended minimal repair model admitting covariates, is demonstrated. In addition, two real data sets are used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed tests.     

The impact of AIDS on income and human capital

This paper studies the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. It explores two channels on how HIV/AIDS affects income that have not been sufficiently stressed by previous literature: the reduction of the incentives to stay in school due to shorter expected longevity and the reduction in productivity of experienced workers. In the model, individuals live for three periods, may get infected in the second period, and with some probability die of AIDS before reaching the third period of their lives. Parents care for the welfare of the future generations so that they will maximize lifetime utility of their dynasty. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in the future will be, on average, 30% poorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases by 40%. These figures are dramatically reduced with widespread medical treatment, as it increases the survival probability and productivity of infected individuals.     

基于保幅延拓算子的共成像点道集敏感性分析

波动方程叠前深度偏移是解决复杂构造成像问题的有效手段。偏移速度分析和AVA/AVO分析都需要在共成像点道集完成,而共成像点道集对偏移速度的敏感性又直接决定了偏移速度分析的可行性,也影响到偏移速度迭代收敛的次数。利用双平方根保幅偏移算子,在波场延拓过程中抽取共成像点道集,保持了振幅的能量特征,有利于AVA/AVO分析。偏移距域和射线参数域共成像点道集对偏移速度较敏感,能够满足偏移速度分析的需要,两者联合应用有利于提高偏移速度分析的精度。     

超高密度水泥浆加重剂粒径和加量优化模型

针对超高密度水泥浆由于体系中惰性颗粒较多,水泥浆流变性能与水泥石力学特性之间存在矛盾的问题,以颗粒级配和紧密堆积原理为理论依据,通过计算水泥石单位面积上加重剂所占面积比,建立了加重剂不同粒径匹配模型和不同粒径加重剂加量的数学模型。调整体系加重剂的颗粒粒径匹配,并对加量进行优化计算,使抗压强度满足设计要求。模型计算出添加三级颗粒时,粒径的最佳匹配关系为r₁∶r₂∶r₃=1.00∶0.40∶0.07,三级颗粒的体积加量为V₁∶V₂∶V₃≈354∶45∶1。大量实验表明,密度为2.6g/cm3的超高密度水泥浆经过合理粒度级配、加量控制的水泥石抗压强度可达到12MPa（24h,50℃常压养护）以上,且流动性能良好,在现场能够一次完成配浆。     

论大学精神的德育

以西南石油大学半个世纪的办学历程为例,探讨了基于大学精神的培育和弘扬的创新德育教育思路和方法,认为重视大学精神德育功能的发挥,是推动高校德育工作发展的一个重要途径。论述了大学精神的时代特征,即强烈的民族精神、厚重的人文特质、坚定的科学理性和勤勉的务实作风,指出大学精神具有导向、陶冶、激励和凝聚等德育功能,应始终注意发挥大学精神德育功能的发挥。     

诸子百家思想在大学生思想政治教育中的作用

春秋战国时代涌现出以孔子、老子、孟子、墨子为代表的先秦诸子,这些先哲们提出了许多对当今社会仍具有重要启示作用的深刻思想,其中蕴含着丰富的思想政治教育资源。为此,从六个方面分析了诸子百家思想是大学生思想政治教育的重要思想资源,提出了正确吸收和运用诸子百家思想,加强和改进大学生思想政治教育的途径。对大学生人生观、价值观培养和道德品德教育以及心理健康教育具有重要意义。     

The economy of risk and respect: accounts by Puerto Rican sex workers of HIV risk taking

Three-hundred-eleven female drug-using sex workers in urban Puerto Rico were asked to describe their last negotiation with a client. They described efforts to protect themselves from many hazards of sex work, including violence, illness, and drug withdrawal. They also described efforts to minimize the stigma and marginalization of sex work by cultivating relationships with clients, distinguishing between types of clients, and prioritizing their role as mothers. Sex workers adopted alternating gender roles to leverage autonomy and respect from clients. Their narratives suggest that sex workers negotiate a world in which HIV is relative to other risks, and in which sexual practices which are incomprehensible from an HIV-prevention perspective are actually rooted in a local cultural logic. Future HIV prevention efforts should frame condom use and other self-protective acts in terms that build upon sex workers own strategies for understanding their options and modifying their risks.     

界面特性对聚合物驱油时驱替速度的影响分析

针对界面特性（界面流变特性、界面张力特性、润湿性）在聚合物驱油过程中的重要性,将油藏孔隙介质简化成具有相继收缩和扩张的波纹管模型,根据能量平衡原理建立了波纹管中聚合物溶液驱替时的界面特性参数和驱替速度之间的数学模型,用有限差分方法求解,研究了界面粘度、界面张力、润湿角变化对聚合物/油界面速度的影响。研究结果表明：润湿性变化影响界面的驱替速度,当界面的曲率方向与驱替方向相反时,无因次界面张力和无因次界面粘度的增加都使无因次界面轴向速度降低,且界面轴向驱替速度关于孔隙单元中心不对称。     

The effect of variability and carryover on average bioequivalence assessment: a simulation study

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of residual variability and carryover on average bioequivalence (ABE) studies performed under a 22 crossover design. ABE is usually assessed by means of the confidence interval inclusion principle. Here, the interval under consideration was the standard 'shortest' interval, which is the mainstream approach in practice. The evaluation was performed by means of a simulation study under different combinations of carryover and residual variability besides of formulation effect and sample size. The evaluation was made in terms of percentage of ABE declaration, coverage and interval precision. As is well known, high levels of variability distort the ABE procedures, particularly its type II error control (i.e. high variabilities make difficult to declare bioequivalence when it holds). The effect of carryover is modulated by variability and is especially disturbing for the type I error control. In the presence of carryover, the risk of erroneously declaring bioequivalence may become high, especially for low variabilities and large sample sizes. We end up with some hints concerning the controversy about pretesting for carryover before performing ABE analysis.